MLB 2019 Futures: Off-Season Edition

There is a small 7% gap between the Red Sox and the Indians. The Cleveland Indians at 26% trails the Boston Red Sox at 27.9%. The Red Sox may be increasing the gap with their chances rising from 25.4%. There is a 2.83 difference in projected win total between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the AL with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Boston Red Sox102.164.3%94.9%11/4 (26.7%)27.9%
Cleveland Indians100.392.4%95.4%5/1 (16.7%)26.0%
Houston Astros95.868.0%80.5%11/4 (26.7%)19.2%
New York Yankees96.227.2%81.3%7/2 (22.2%)13.3%
Tampa Bay Rays90.08.4%51.4%20/1 (4.8%)5.6%
Oakland Athletics87.218.5%38.5%15/1 (6.2%)3.9%
Los Angeles Angels82.47.4%17.8%20/1 (4.8%)1.6%
Minnesota Twins83.97.3%22.8%30/1 (3.2%)1.3%
Seattle Mariners80.04.5%11.3%25/1 (3.8%)0.9%
Texas Rangers76.11.6%4.6%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Kansas City Royals70.50.2%0.8%100/1 (1%)--
Chicago White Sox67.10.1%0.3%30/1 (3.2%)--
Toronto Blue Jays66.60.1%0.2%30/1 (3.2%)--
Detroit Tigers59.40.1%0.1%100/1 (1%)--
Baltimore Orioles55.10.1%0.1%150/1 (0.7%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is small at 23%. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 23.3 percent chance of winning the NL and the Washington Nationals are at 18.8%. The gap seems to be widening. The Nationals chances are down from 20.1 percent. There is a 1.8 difference in projected win total between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the NL. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. This are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the NL.

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers96.172.8%88.1%7/2 (22.2%)23.3%
Washington Nationals92.065.6%76.5%8/1 (11.1%)18.8%
Milwaukee Brewers91.038.9%67.3%6/1 (14.3%)16.4%
Chicago Cubs91.440.8%69.6%5/1 (16.7%)15.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks86.918.0%47.1%30/1 (3.2%)7.5%
St Louis Cardinals85.114.5%37.7%8/1 (11.1%)5.4%
Atlanta Braves83.818.0%32.9%6/1 (14.3%)4.2%
New York Mets81.712.4%23.7%15/1 (6.2%)3.3%
Colorado Rockies82.78.4%27.0%15/1 (6.2%)3.1%
Pittsburgh Pirates80.35.6%17.5%25/1 (3.8%)2.1%
Philadelphia Phillies76.03.9%8.3%9/1 (10%)0.7%
San Diego Padres71.30.5%2.1%50/1 (2%)--
San Francisco Giants69.80.3%1.4%50/1 (2%)--
Cincinnati Reds67.30.2%0.6%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Marlins61.90.1%0.1%100/1 (1%)--

This is a normal year with 10 teams having at least a two percent chance of winning it all. This is the number you would expect in a typical season. At #2, the Indians have a 15 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 2 percentage points behind the Red Sox. At the bottom of the contenders list, 4 percentage points separate the Cubs from the Rays.

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WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Boston Red Sox6/114.3%17.7%--
Cleveland Indians10/19.1%15.5%--
Houston Astros6/114.3%11.9%--
Los Angeles Dodgers7/112.5%10.6%--
Washington Nationals16/15.9%7.8%--
Milwaukee Brewers12/17.7%7.7%--
New York Yankees7/112.5%7.5%--
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%6.5%--
Arizona Diamondbacks60/11.6%2.9%--
Tampa Bay Rays40/12.4%2.5%--
Oakland Athletics30/13.2%1.9%--
St Louis Cardinals16/15.9%1.8%--
Atlanta Braves12/17.7%1.3%--
New York Mets30/13.2%1%.0--
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