MLB 2019: Smart to Bet Over on Favorites - Yankees, Astros, Red Sox and Dodgers

1NEW YORK YANKEES 100-62 | 2019 Projection: 102 Wins
Win 63% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 100 games vs an expected win total of 100. Their 65.4% home win percentage was as expected (65.5%). They won 58% on the road which was as expected (58%). They are poised to slightly improve on last season's win total. In our latest simulations they won 102.5 games per sim and are projected to finish first in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #3 ranked Red Sox who are projected for 99.4 wins. They are a contender with a 17.3% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 28.7% chance of reaching the Series. Even with the juice, they are a good futures betting value with championship odds of 5/1, 16.7% and odds to win the AL at 9/4, 30.8%. They are the favorite to win the AL East at 56.5% and are a good value at 4/5 55.6%

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 97 Wins

2HOUSTON ASTROS 103-59 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

Had they not had a firesale of their top talent this off-season they would have been projected to win nearly 90 games and would have been real contenders. The regular season went better than expected. They won 103 games vs an expected win total of 101.6. They exceeded expectations on the road. They won 70.4% on the road which was much better than expected (58.9%). They won 46 at home and were expected to win 53.8. In simulations for next season they are averaging 100.6 wins and are projected to finish second in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #3 ranked Red Sox who are projected for 99.4 wins. They are a contender with a 18.2% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 29.9% chance of reaching the Series. Even with the juice, they are a good futures betting value with championship odds of 6/1, 14.3% and odds to win the AL at 11/4, 26.7%. The Astros are not as good as the Yankees if they all had the same schedule and same division. But given their overwhelming favorite status to win their division (81% in simulations. 1/8, 89% odds) they have a much better chance of avoiding the Wild Card game and subsequently have the best chance of winning it all out of the American League.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 96.5 Wins

3LOS ANGELES DODGERS 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 61% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Dodgers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 91 games vs an expected win total of 97.3. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 54.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (63%). They won 58% on the road which was as expected (57.1%). We are projecting a +9.7 win improvement next season. They are averaging 100.7 wins per simulation and are projected to finish first in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #2 ranked Nationals who are projected for 93.2 wins. They are a contender with a 18.6% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 34.4% chance of reaching the Series. Even with the juice, they are a good futures betting value with championship odds of 7/1, 12.5% and odds to win the NL at 7/2, 22.2%. Even at 1/5, 83.3% odds to win the NL West, the Dodgers are still a good bet as their chances of winning the division are 94% based on the latest simulations.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 93 Wins

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4BOSTON RED SOX 108-54 | 2019 Projection: 99 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are a lock to miss the playoffs and it is almost incomprehensible that you have to bet $20,000 to win a $1 if you are going to bet that the Orioles DO NOT make the playoffs. Their 108 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +12.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 51-30 on the road and were expected to win 44.6. Their 70.4% home win percentage was better than expected (62.5%). We are only projecting 99.4 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish third in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #4 ranked Indians who are projected for 91.7 wins. They are a contender with a 9.2% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 16.8% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 7/1, 12.5% and odds to win the AL at 13/4, 23.5%. The Red Sox may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 94 Wins

5CHICAGO CUBS 95-67 | 2019 Projection: 92 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 95 games vs an expected win total of 92. Their strength was at home. Their 63% home win percentage was better than expected (60.2%). They won 54.3% on the road which was as expected (53.4%). We are currently projecting a drop in wins. They are averaging 92.4 wins per simulation for next season and are projected to finish third in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #4 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 87.1 wins. They are a contender with a 7.4% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 16.6% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 12/1, 7.7% and odds to win the NL at 6/1, 14.3%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 88 Wins

6MILWAUKEE BREWERS 95-67 | 2019 Projection: 87 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 95 games vs an expected win total of 83.4. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 63% home win percentage was better than expected (55.2%). They won 54.3% on the road which was better than expected (47.8%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 86.8 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #6 ranked Phillies who are projected for 84.6 wins. They are a contender with a 3.6% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 8.5% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 16/1, 5.9% and odds to win the NL at 8/1, 11.1%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 86.5 Wins

7WASHINGTON NATIONALS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 93 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Nationals play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 82 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 41-40 on the road and were expected to win 42.4. They won 41 at home and were expected to win 48.6. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 93.2 wins per sim, which is a solid +11.2 improvement and are projected to finish second in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #3 ranked Cubs who are projected for 92.4 wins. They are a contender with a 6.8% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 16.3% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 12/1, 7.7% and odds to win the NL at 6/1, 14.3%. Even with Bryce Harper going to a division rival the Nationals are still a great value to win the NL East. They have a 63 percent chance at just 9/4, 30.8% odds.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 89 Wins

8ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 88-74 | 2019 Projection: 87 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 88 games vs an expected win total of 85.3. Their strength was in road games. They went 45-36 on the road and were expected to win 40.2. Their 53.1% home win percentage was worse than expected (55.8%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 87 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Phillies who are projected for 84.6 wins. They are a contender with a 3.6% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 8.7% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 12/1, 7.7% and odds to win the NL at 6/1, 14.3%. They are -110 to make the playoffs and -110 to miss the playoffs. This is pretty much exactly what the simulations have which is a 51% chance of making the playoffs.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 88 Wins

9OAKLAND ATHLETICS 97-65 | 2019 Projection: 89 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are -800 to make the playoffs because of their overwhelming 1/4 odds to win the division. In simulations they win their division 79% of the time and only make the playoffs as a wildcard 3% of the time. The regular season went much better than expected. They won 97 games vs an expected win total of 81.3. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. They won 50 at home and were expected to win 43.5. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 89 wins and are projected to finish sixth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #4 ranked Indians who are projected for 91.7 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 2.3% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 5.5% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 30/1, 3.2% and odds to win the AL at 15/1, 6.2%. Their playoff percentage of 46% is much higher than their +240 implies (29.4%).The Athletics may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 83 Wins

10PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 85 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Phillies could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Their 80 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.6 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 31-50 on the road and were expected to win 38.2. They won 49 at home and were expected to win 44.4. We are projecting a +4.6 win improvement next season. They are averaging 84.6 wins per simulation and are projected to finish sixth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #4 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 87.1 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 2.5% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 6.5% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 12/1, 7.7% and odds to win the NL at 6/1, 14.3%. Bryce Harper helps them win 3 more games and more than double their chances of making and winning the World Series, but they are still not a good betting value across the board.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 89 Wins

11TAMPA BAY RAYS 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 90 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 90 games vs an expected win total of 78.8. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 48.1% on the road which was better than expected (45.5%). They won 51 at home and were expected to win 41.9. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 90 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 89 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 1.8% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 4.1% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 30/1, 3.2% and odds to win the AL at 15/1, 6.2%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 84.5 Wins

12LOS ANGELES ANGELS 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 83 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 80 games vs an expected win total of 82.4. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 38-43 on the road and were expected to win 38.1. They won 42 at home and were expected to win 44.3. Based on the latest simulations, expect a slight improvement on last season's record. They are averaging 82.9 wins per simulation and are projected to finish seventh in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 89 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.7% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 1.6% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 40/1, 2.4% and odds to win the AL at 20/1, 4.8%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 81.5 Wins

13ATLANTA BRAVES 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 83 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Astros are not as good as the Yankees if they all had the same schedule and same division. But given their overwhelming favorite status to win their division (81% in simulations. 1/8, 89% odds) they have a much better chance of avoiding the Wild Card game and subsequently have the best chance of winning it all out of the American League. Their 90 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +8.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. Their 53.1% home win percentage was as expected (53.7%). They won 58% on the road which was much better than expected (46.7%). We are only projecting 83.1 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish seventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Phillies who are projected for 84.6 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 1.2% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 3% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 20/1, 4.8% and odds to win the NL at 10/1, 9.1%. Like their win total, which is just under the line, their chances of making the playoffs, 32% is just under what their +170 (37%) implies.The Braves may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 86 Wins

14COLORADO ROCKIES 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 81 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 91 games vs an expected win total of 81.6. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 36.6. They won 47 at home and were expected to win 45. We are only projecting 80.7 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish ninth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #7 ranked Braves who are projected for 83.1 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.6% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 1.5% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 25/1, 3.8% and odds to win the NL at 12/1, 7.7%. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Rockies could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 85 Wins

15CLEVELAND INDIANS 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 92 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Even at 1/5, 83.3% odds to win the NL West, the Dodgers are still a good bet as their chances of winning the division are 94% based on the latest simulations. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 99.8 wins. Their 91 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 42-39 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. Their 60.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (64.3%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 92 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 89 wins. They are a contender with a 4.3% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 11.4% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 10/1, 9.1% and odds to win the AL at 5/1, 16.7%. They are -800 to make the playoffs because of their overwhelming 1/4 odds to win the division. In simulations they win their division 79% of the time and only make the playoffs as a wildcard 3% of the time.The Indians may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 91 Wins

16PITTSBURGH PIRATES 82-79 | 2019 Projection: 79 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 82 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.3 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 55% home win percentage was better than expected (53.1%). They won 46.9% on the road which was better than expected (44.7%). We are projecting a drop in wins to 79.1 for next season and are projected to finish tenth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Mets who are projected for 80.8 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.5% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 1.4% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 80/1, 1.2% and odds to win the NL at 40/1, 2.4%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 78 Wins

17NEW YORK METS 77-85 | 2019 Projection: 81 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 79.7 wins. Their 77 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 49.4% on the road which was better than expected (45.7%). They won 37 at home and were expected to win 42.7. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 80.8 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.8 improvement and are projected to finish eighth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #7 ranked Braves who are projected for 83.1 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.6% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 2.1% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 25/1, 3.8% and odds to win the NL at 12/1, 7.7%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 85.5 Wins

18ARIZONA D-BACKS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 77 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 84.8 wins. Their 82 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 42-39 on the road and were expected to win 39.8. They won 40 at home and were expected to win 45. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 77.4 wins and are projected to finish eleventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Rockies who are projected for 80.7 wins. While not World Series contenders they do have a measurable chance (0.2%). Their odds of winning it all are 80/1, 1.2%. Their odds of winning the NL are 40/1, 2.4% and they have a 0.7% chance based on simulations. Had they not had a firesale of their top talent this off-season they would have been projected to win nearly 90 games and would have been real contenders.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 75.5 Wins

19SEATTLE MARINERS 89-73 | 2019 Projection: 74 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are the favorite to win the AL East at 56.5% and are a good value at 4/5 55.6% Their 89 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +7.5 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. Their 55.6% home win percentage was better than expected (53.9%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 74.1 wins and are projected to finish tenth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Royals who are projected for 75 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 300/1, 0.3%. Their odds of winning the AL are 150/1, 0.7%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero. The Mariners may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 71.5 Wins

20SAN DIEGO PADRES 66-96 | 2019 Projection: 71 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Padres could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. Their 66 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 38.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (46.5%). They won 43.2% on the road which was better than expected (39%). We are projecting a +4.8 win improvement next season. They are averaging 70.8 wins per simulation and are projected to finish third to last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #12 ranked Giants who are projected for 71.2 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 100/1, 1%. Their odds of winning the NL are 50/1, 2%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero. In the simulations, Manny Machado is not having a huge impact. The Padres improved their projected win total by a shade under 2 wins. As far as superstar players go, Machado has a relatively low on base percentage and home run rate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 78.5 Wins

21MINNESOTA TWINS 78-84 | 2019 Projection: 81 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

Bryce Harper helps them win 3 more games and more than double their chances of making and winning the World Series, but they are still not a good betting value across the board. Their 78 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 29-52 on the road and were expected to win 36.6. Their 60.5% home win percentage was better than expected (52.9%). They are poised to slightly improve on last season's win total. In our latest simulations they won 80.9 games per sim and are projected to finish eighth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #7 ranked Angels who are projected for 82.9 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.5% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 1.4% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 25/1, 3.8% and odds to win the AL at 12/1, 7.7%. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Twins could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 84 Wins

22TEXAS RANGERS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 72 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Rangers could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 69.9 wins. Their 67 actual wins was below expectation. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 33-48 on the road and were expected to win 32.3. They won 34 at home and were expected to win 37.5. We are projecting a +5.1 win improvement next season. They are averaging 72.1 wins per simulation and are projected to finish eleventh in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Royals who are projected for 75 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 1000/1, 0.1%. Their odds of winning the AL are 500/1, 0.2%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 71 Wins

23SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 71 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

In the simulations, Manny Machado is not having a huge impact. The Padres improved their projected win total by a shade under 2 wins. As far as superstar players go, Machado has a relatively low on base percentage and home run rate. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 73 games vs an expected win total of 75. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 38.3% on the road which was worse than expected (42%). They won 42 at home and were expected to win 41. We are currently projecting a drop in wins. They are averaging 71.2 wins per simulation for next season and are projected to finish twelfth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 77.4 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 100/1, 1%. Their odds of winning the NL are 50/1, 2%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 73 Wins

24CINCINNATI REDS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 67 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 67 games vs an expected win total of 72.2. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 30-51 on the road and were expected to win 33.4. Their 45.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (47.9%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 67 wins and are projected to finish second to last in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #13 ranked Padres who are projected for 70.8 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 80/1, 1.2%. Their odds of winning the NL are 40/1, 2.4%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 78.5 Wins

25KANSAS CITY ROYALS 58-104 | 2019 Projection: 75 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Royals are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. But at 58 wins, it is not hard to improve. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 58 games vs an expected win total of 66.2. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 39.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (44.1%). They won 32.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (37.6%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 75 wins per sim, which is a solid +17 improvement and are projected to finish ninth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #8 ranked Twins who are projected for 80.9 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 1000/1, 0.1%. Their odds of winning the AL are 500/1, 0.2%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 69 Wins

26MIAMI MARLINS 63-98 | 2019 Projection: 65 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

They are -110 to make the playoffs and -110 to miss the playoffs. This is pretty much exactly what the simulations have which is a 51% chance of making the playoffs. The regular season went as expected. They won 63 games vs an expected win total of 62.7. Their strength was at home. They won 31.2% on the road which was much worse than expected (35.8%). They won 38 at home and were expected to win 34. Based on the latest simulations, expect a slight improvement on last season's record. They are averaging 65.1 wins per simulation and are projected to finish last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #14 ranked Reds who are projected for 66.8 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 2000/1, 0%. Their odds of winning the NL are 1000/1, 0.1%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 63.5 Wins

27TORONTO BLUE JAYS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 69 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 73 games vs an expected win total of 75.7. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 33-48 on the road and were expected to win 35.3. Their 49.4% home win percentage was as expected (49.9%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 68.7 wins and are projected to finish twelfth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Rangers who are projected for 72.1 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 300/1, 0.3%. Their odds of winning the AL are 150/1, 0.7%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Blue Jays could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 74 Wins

28CHICAGO WHITE SOX 62-100 | 2019 Projection: 66 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 62 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 32-49 on the road and were expected to win 30.8. They won 30 at home and were expected to win 36.1. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 65.9 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.9 improvement and are projected to finish third to last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #12 ranked Blue Jays who are projected for 68.7 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 200/1, 0.5%. Their odds of winning the AL are 30/1, 3.2%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 73.5 Wins

29DETROIT TIGERS 64-98 | 2019 Projection: 64 Wins
Win 37% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 64 games vs an expected win total of 66.8. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 26-55 on the road and were expected to win 30.8. Their 46.9% home win percentage was better than expected (44.4%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 64 wins and are projected to finish second to last in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #13 ranked White Sox who are projected for 65.9 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 500/1, 0.2%. Their odds of winning the AL are 250/1, 0.4%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Tigers could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 68 Wins

30BALTIMORE ORIOLES 47-115 | 2019 Projection: 54 Wins
Win 34% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Orioles are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Improvement on 47 wins is somewhat expected. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 47 games vs an expected win total of 66.6. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 34.6% home win percentage was much worse than expected (43.9%). They won 23.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.3%). We are projecting a +6.8 win improvement next season. They are averaging 53.8 wins per simulation and are projected to finish last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Tigers who are projected for 64.2 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 2000/1, 0%. Their odds of winning the AL are 1000/1, 0.1%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero. They are a lock to miss the playoffs and it is almost incomprehensible that you have to bet $20,000 to win a $1 if you are going to bet that the Orioles DO NOT make the playoffs.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 59 Wins