MLB 2020 Futures: Off-Season Edition

The percentage difference at the top of the AL is very large at 24.8%. The Boston Red Sox at 14.4% trail the Houston Astros at 39.1%. Neither team has shown a significant positive or negative trend in recent forecasts. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #4 best record and the team with the #6 best record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the AL, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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Houston Astros107.190.8%97.9%9/4 (30.8%)39.1%
Boston Red Sox98.047.2%80.8%5/1 (16.7%)14.4%
Minnesota Twins93.656.3%69.7%10/1 (9.1%)11.7%
New York Yankees93.623.8%62.4%5/2 (28.6%)10.7%
Tampa Bay Rays94.428.9%67.1%10/1 (9.1%)10.4%
Oakland Athletics92.49.0%56.6%15/1 (6.2%)9.1%
Cleveland Indians91.842.4%58.7%6/1 (14.3%)4.5%
Seattle Mariners75.90.2%2.5%150/1 (0.7%)--
Los Angeles Angels71.30.1%0.7%50/1 (2%)--
Chicago White Sox73.31.1%1.9%30/1 (3.2%)--
Texas Rangers72.90.1%0.9%50/1 (2%)--
Toronto Blue Jays68.50.1%0.4%40/1 (2.4%)--
Kansas City Royals67.00.2%0.3%500/1 (0.2%)--
Baltimore Orioles61.20.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Detroit Tigers50.70.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

There is a huge 25.5% gap between NL leaders. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 41.9 percent chance of winning the NL and the Chicago Cubs are at 16.4%. Both teams' NLCS championship percentages have been holding steady. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Brewers average the #4 most wins and the Cardinals average the #6 most so the difference (0.85 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There are 6 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the NL.

Los Angeles Dodgers103.796.2%98.6%5/2 (28.6%)41.9%
Chicago Cubs91.949.3%74.8%10/1 (9.1%)16.4%
Washington Nationals89.841.9%64.8%6/1 (14.3%)13.4%
Milwaukee Brewers87.826.1%54.8%10/1 (9.1%)8.4%
Atlanta Braves87.429.5%52.8%9/2 (18.2%)8.1%
St Louis Cardinals87.023.3%52.0%8/1 (11.1%)5.1%
New York Mets85.822.1%44.7%10/1 (9.1%)3.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks81.12.6%21.0%25/1 (3.8%)1.8%
Philadelphia Phillies79.46.4%16.5%10/1 (9.1%)1.2%
San Francisco Giants73.50.4%4.0%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Pittsburgh Pirates70.20.3%1.8%100/1 (1%)0.2%
Colorado Rockies77.20.8%9.4%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Cincinnati Reds72.50.9%3.3%25/1 (3.8%)0.1%
San Diego Padres68.80.1%1.2%25/1 (3.8%)--
Miami Marlins62.10.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

At this point, the number of contenders exceeds the number of playoff teams. There are 11 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Dodgers have a 1 percentage point lead over the Astros. At the bottom of the contenders list, 1.5 percentage points separate the Twins from the Braves.

Los Angeles Dodgers6/114.3%24.8%--
Houston Astros5/116.7%23.8%--
Boston Red Sox12/17.7%7.6%--
Chicago Cubs20/14.8%6.7%--
Washington Nationals14/16.7%5.9%--
New York Yankees6/114.3%5.3%--
Tampa Bay Rays20/14.8%4.7%--
Oakland Athletics30/13.2%4.7%--
Minnesota Twins20/14.8%4.5%--
Milwaukee Brewers20/14.8%3.4%--
Atlanta Braves10/19.1%3.0%--
St Louis Cardinals18/15.3%1.9%--
Cleveland Indians14/16.7%1.6%--
New York Mets20/14.8%1.1%--