MLB 2020 Futures: Off-Season Edition

There is a huge 10.5% gap between AL leaders. The New York Yankees lead with a 34.1 percent chance of winning the AL and the Houston Astros are at 23.6%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Astros chances are down from 39.3 percent. While 2.95 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the AL.

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New York Yankees100.970.9%92.1%5/4 (44.4%)34.1%
Houston Astros97.667.1%85.0%7/2 (22.2%)23.6%
Minnesota Twins94.465.4%77.3%9/1 (10%)13.3%
Oakland Athletics90.925.0%55.0%12/1 (7.7%)8.6%
Tampa Bay Rays91.718.4%60.0%12/1 (7.7%)7.2%
Cleveland Indians88.829.6%48.4%12/1 (7.7%)5.4%
Boston Red Sox88.810.2%43.1%12/1 (7.7%)4.7%
Los Angeles Angels84.47.4%23.5%15/1 (6.2%)2.0%
Chicago White Sox79.24.9%9.9%20/1 (4.8%)0.8%
Texas Rangers74.00.4%1.9%25/1 (3.8%)0.2%
Toronto Blue Jays75.50.4%3.2%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Baltimore Orioles58.20.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Seattle Mariners66.50.1%0.2%250/1 (0.4%)--
Kansas City Royals65.80.1%0.2%250/1 (0.4%)--
Detroit Tigers52.40.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is very large at 33.1%. The Washington Nationals at 11.4% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 44.5%. The gap seems to be widening. The Nationals chances are down from 14 percent. A difference of 3.77 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the NL is considerable. There is parity in the league. There are 8 teams winning the NL in at least four percent of our playoff simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers107.595.6%99.5%9/4 (30.8%)44.5%
Washington Nationals88.842.8%63.0%7/1 (12.5%)11.4%
Atlanta Braves86.128.1%48.2%5/1 (16.7%)8.4%
Chicago Cubs86.837.3%53.0%15/1 (6.2%)7.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks88.14.2%57.5%20/1 (4.8%)7.5%
St Louis Cardinals84.325.4%40.4%6/1 (14.3%)5.4%
Milwaukee Brewers82.518.3%32.0%20/1 (4.8%)4.4%
New York Mets83.618.0%35.8%7/1 (12.5%)4.1%
Cincinnati Reds82.518.6%32.1%15/1 (6.2%)3.2%
Philadelphia Phillies80.911.0%23.7%9/1 (10%)3.0%
Colorado Rockies72.90.1%3.8%50/1 (2%)0.2%
San Francisco Giants72.60.1%3.3%150/1 (0.7%)0.1%
San Diego Padres74.90.1%6.6%25/1 (3.8%)--
Pittsburgh Pirates66.50.3%0.7%100/1 (1%)--
Miami Marlins62.80.1%0.2%500/1 (0.2%)--

It is a wide open field with more teams with a decent chance of winning it all than total playoff teams. There are 11 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Yankees have a 20 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 9 percentage points behind the Dodgers. At the bottom of the contenders list, 1.1 percentage points separate the D-Backs from the Cardinals.

Los Angeles Dodgers6/114.3%29.0%--
New York Yankees3/125.0%19.6%--
Houston Astros8/111.1%10.9%--
Washington Nationals16/15.9%5.7%--
Minnesota Twins20/14.8%5.2%--
Oakland Athletics25/13.8%4.0%--
Atlanta Braves12/17.7%3.5%--
Chicago Cubs30/13.2%3.5%--
Arizona Diamondbacks40/12.4%3.2%--
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%3.1%--
St Louis Cardinals14/16.7%2.1%--
Cleveland Indians25/13.8%1.9%--
Milwaukee Brewers40/12.4%1.9%--
Boston Red Sox25/13.8%1.6%--
New York Mets16/15.9%1.6%--
Cincinnati Reds30/13.2%1.1%--
Philadelphia Phillies18/15.3%1.1%--