MLB 2020 Power Rankings: Red Sox Bounce Back and are #3…Ahead of Yankees?

1LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Projected Record: 101-61

They win the championship in 24.8% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 6/1, 14.3%. The Dodgers are averaging 101.1 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 92.5 games. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NL. They went 106-56 last season. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-854 loss).

When the perception of a team is very different than how good or bad they really are there is often very good betting value. Sportsline.com is the best place to find value each day based on objective computer simulations.

2HOUSTON ASTROS
Projected Record: 107-55

They are a good bet to win the championship (23.8 percent chance). Current Odds are 5/1, 16.7%. The Astros are averaging 106.8 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 96.5 games. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AL. They were expected to win 64% of their games last season so their 107-55 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -246 units.

3BOSTON RED SOX
Projected Record: 97-65

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Red Sox would be a good betting value. Their 7.6% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #3 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. The Red Sox are averaging 96.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 93.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AL. They went 84-78 last season. They were not good against the spread going 68-94 (-4111 loss).

4CHICAGO CUBS
Projected Record: 91-71

Even with the juice, the Cubs are a good betting value. Their 6.7% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #4 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Cubs are averaging 91.5 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 87.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NL. They went 84-78 last season. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-1148 loss).

5WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Projected Record: 93-69

Their simulation based win percentage (5.9%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. The Nationals are averaging 93.2 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 89 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NL. They went 94-69 last season. They were very good against the spread going 92-71 for (+736 profit).

6NEW YORK YANKEES
Projected Record: 95-67

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 5.3% chance is #6 in the league. Current Odds are 6/1, 14.3%. The Yankees are averaging 94.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 97 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AL. They went 103-59 last season. They were very good against the spread going 94-68 for (+1643 profit).

7TAMPA BAY RAYS
Projected Record: 95-67

Their simulation based win percentage (4.7%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Rays are averaging 95.4 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 84.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL. They went 96-66 last season. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-1041 loss).

8OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Projected Record: 96-66

They are a good bet to win the championship (4.7 percent chance). Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Athletics are averaging 95.7 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 81.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AL. Their 97-65 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 53%. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +1524.

9MINNESOTA TWINS
Projected Record: 95-67

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Twins would be a good betting value. Their 4.5% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #9 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Twins are averaging 95.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 84 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AL. Their 101-61 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 56%. They were very good against the money line (+1407).

10MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Projected Record: 91-71

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 3.4% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Brewers are averaging 90.8 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 86.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NL. They went 89-74 last season. They were not good against the spread going 79-84 (-1603 loss).

11ATLANTA BRAVES
Projected Record: 89-73

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 3% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 10/1, 9.1%. The Braves are averaging 88.9 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 86 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NL. They went 97-65 last season. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-490 loss).

12ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Projected Record: 85-77

Their 1.9% chance is #12 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. The Cardinals are averaging 85.4 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 88.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NL. They went 91-71 last season. They were very good against the spread going 88-74 for (+312 profit).

13CLEVELAND INDIANS
Projected Record: 90-72

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.6% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 91 games. The Indians are averaging 89.6 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL. They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 93-69 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -682 on them.

14NEW YORK METS
Projected Record: 84-78

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.1% chance is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 85.5 games. The Mets are averaging 84.2 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NL. They went 86-76 last season. They were not good against the spread going 82-80 (-512 loss).

15ARIZONA D-BACKS
Projected Record: 82-80

Their 0.6% chance is #15 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. The D-Backs are averaging 82.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 75.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NL. They went 85-77 last season. They were very good against the spread going 89-73 for (+258 profit).

16PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Projected Record: 79-83

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 0.3% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Phillies are averaging 79.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 89 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NL. They went 81-81 last season. They were not good against the spread going 78-84 (-1222 loss).

17SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Projected Record: 74-88

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Giants are averaging 73.6 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 73.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL. They went 77-85 last season. They were not good against the spread going 80-82 (-1664 loss).

18COLORADO ROCKIES
Projected Record: 74-88

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Rockies are averaging 74.4 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 85.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NL. They went 71-91 last season. They were not good against the spread going 73-89 (-2542 loss).

19CINCINNATI REDS
Projected Record: 71-91

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. The Reds are averaging 71.3 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 79 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NL. They went 75-87 last season. They were not good against the spread going 83-79 (-670 loss).

20PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Projected Record: 71-91

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. The Pirates are averaging 70.9 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 78.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NL. They were expected to win 44% of their games last season so their 69-93 met expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1346) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

21SEATTLE MARINERS
Projected Record: 75-87

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. The Mariners are averaging 75 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 73.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AL. They went 68-94 last season. They were not good against the spread going 79-83 (-1511 loss).

22LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Projected Record: 75-87

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Angels are averaging 75 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 82 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AL. They went 72-90 last season. They were not good against the spread going 79-83 (-837 loss).

23CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Projected Record: 70-92

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. The White Sox are averaging 70.3 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 73.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AL. They went 72-89 last season. They were not good against the spread going 80-81 (-236 loss).

24SAN DIEGO PADRES
Projected Record: 71-91

They do not win the World Series in any simulations. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. The Padres are averaging 71 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 78.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NL. Their 70-92 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 78.9-83.1. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -2315 units.

25TEXAS RANGERS
Projected Record: 72-90

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Rangers are averaging 71.7 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 71 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AL. Their 78-84 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 72-90. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +466.

26KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Projected Record: 67-95

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Royals are averaging 67.4 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 69 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AL. They went 59-103 last season. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-1890 loss).

27TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Projected Record: 65-97

They do not win the World Series in any simulations. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. The Blue Jays are averaging 65.4 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 74 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AL. They were expected to win 43% of their games last season so their 67-95 met expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1262) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

28BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Projected Record: 62-100

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Orioles are averaging 62 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 59 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AL. They went 54-108 last season. They were not good against the spread going 71-91 (-2138 loss).

29MIAMI MARLINS
Projected Record: 60-102

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Marlins are averaging 60.3 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 63.5 wins. In simulations they finish last in the NL based on projected wins. They went 57-105 last season. They were not good against the spread going 83-79 (-787 loss).

30DETROIT TIGERS
Projected Record: 51-111

They do not win the World Series in any simulations. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Tigers are averaging 51 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 68 wins. In simulations they finish last in the AL based on projected wins. They went 47-114 last season. They were not good against the spread going 65-96 (-3266 loss).