MLB Computer Like Mets and deGrom to Beat Cardinals

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Thursday, June 13, 2019

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves

The Braves are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is ATL 5.4 and PIT 4.5, and Atlanta is winning 63% of the sims. At -145 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Braves a 59 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Pirates to win. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Braves going 9-3. They have the large edge in units at +366 to -568 units. In these games the Braves averaged 5.5 runs per game and the Pirates 3.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates+1284.54.543%37%3.8 (3 Wins)
Atlanta Braves-1455.05.457%63%5.5 (9 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins

The odds and our simulations favor the Twins over the Mariners. The projected score is MIN 6 and SEA 5.1, and Minnesota is winning 64% of simulations. The moneyline for the Twins is -174 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Mariners since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Mariners have the recent head-to-head edge going 7-5 and they have the large edge in profit at +283 to -299 units. The average moneyline for the Twins was -76 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Twins averaged 5.4 runs per game and the Mariners 4.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Mariners+1454.95.139%36%4.6 (7 Wins)
Minnesota Twins-1745.66.061%64%5.4 (5 Wins)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Blue Jays. The projected score is Blue Jays 4.3 and Orioles 3.8, and Toronto is winning 53% of simulations. The moneyline for the Blue Jays is -152 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Blue Jays since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Blue Jays going 16-8. They have the large edge in units at +363 to -667. The Blue Jays were -123 favorites on average. In these games, the Blue Jays averaged 4.9 and the Orioles 3.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Blue Jays-1524.84.358%53%4.9 (16 Wins)
Baltimore Orioles+1304.23.842%47%3.8 (8 Wins)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals

The odds favor the D-Backs, but the sims are solidly on the D-Backs. The projected score is D-Backs 5.4 and Nationals 4.4, and Arizona is winning 60% of simulations. The moneyline for the D-Backs is -125 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the D-Backs to win. The Nationals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 9-4 record and they have the large edge in profit at +301 to -421 units. The average moneyline for the Nationals was -97 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Nationals averaged 3.6 runs per game and the D-Backs 2.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Diamondbacks-1254.65.453%60%2.8 (4 Wins)
Washington Nationals+1054.44.447%40%3.6 (9 Wins)

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Red Sox to win the game. The projected score is BOS 5.2 and TEX 3.7, and Boston is winning 71% of the sims. The moneyline for the Red Sox is -222 which translates to 69 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Red Sox to win. The Red Sox have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-3 record. They have the large edge in units at +49 to -186 units. In these games the Red Sox averaged 5.1 runs per game and the Rangers 4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Texas Rangers+1804.03.734%29%4.0 (3 Wins)
Boston Red Sox-2225.05.266%71%5.1 (7 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets

The Mets are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is NYM 4.4 and STL 3.8, and New York is winning 62% of simulations. At -135 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Mets a 57 percent chance of winning. Bettors seem to be favoring the Cardinals since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In their last 9 matchups the Cardinals are 5-4. They have the significant edge in units at +25 to -45. The average moneyline for the Mets was +19 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 5.4 and the Mets 4.1 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals+1153.33.845%38%5.4 (5 Wins)
New York Mets-1353.74.455%62%4.1 (4 Wins)

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Rays are favored. The projected score is TB 4.5 and LAA 3.4, and Tampa Bay is winning 68% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rays going 10-4. They have the large edge in units at +651 to -631 units. The average moneyline for the Angels was -30 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Rays averaged 4.6 runs per game and the Angels 2.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Angels----3.4--32%2.8 (4 Wins)
Tampa Bay Rays----4.5--68%4.6 (10 Wins)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals

The simulations slightly favor the Royals who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is KC 4.8 and DET 4.3, with Kansas City winning 60% of the time. At -141 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Tigers a 59 percent chance of winning. Bettors seem to be favoring the Tigers since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In their last 27 matchups the Tigers are 14-13. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Tigers are at -11 and the Royals are -201 against each other. The average moneyline for the Royals was -40 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Royals averaged 4.4 runs per game and the Tigers 4.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Tigers-1414.54.356%40%4.3 (14 Wins)
Kansas City Royals+1204.04.844%60%4.4 (13 Wins)

New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox

The Yankees are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Yankees 6.4 and White Sox 4.5, and New York is winning 68% of simulations. The moneyline for the Yankees is -175 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 9 matchups the Yankees are 5-4. The Yankees actually have the large edge in profit at +-155 to 293 units. The Yankees were -220 favorites on average. In these games, the Yankees averaged 4.2 and the White Sox 3.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Yankees-1755.26.462%68%4.2 (5 Wins)
Chicago White Sox+1554.34.538%32%3.8 (4 Wins)

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies

The odds and our simulations favor the Rockies over the Padres. The projected score is COL 5.5 and SD 4.6, and Colorado is winning 64% of simulations. At -149 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Rockies a 60 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Rockies have been dominating this matchup recently with a 15-9 record and they have the large edge in profit at +259 to -326 units. The average moneyline for the Padres was +61 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Rockies averaged 5 runs per game and the Padres 4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o11.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Diego Padres+1305.54.642%36%4.0 (9 Wins)
Colorado Rockies-1496.05.558%64%5.0 (15 Wins)

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Dodgers to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is LAD 4.3 and CHC 3.9, with Los Angeles winning 59% of the time. At -186 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Dodgers a 65 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Cubs have the recent head-to-head edge going 6-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +281 to -299 units. The average moneyline for the Cubs was +76 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Cubs averaged 5 and the Dodgers 3.3 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Cubs+1553.63.938%41%5.0 (6 Wins)
Los Angeles Dodgers-1864.44.362%59%3.3 (4 Wins)