MLB Computer Power Ranking: Houston Astros #1, LA Dodgers #2, Yankees #3

1HOUSTON ASTROS (97-53, 64.7%): Winning 67% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 106-56

They win the championship in 31% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 5/2, 28.6%. Their pre-season futures line was 96.5 wins so they have hit the over. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AL. After 150 games, their expected win percentage is 63% based on the money line odds. At 97-53 they are in line with these expectations.

When the perception of a team is very different than how good or bad they really are there is often very good betting value. Sportsline.com is the best place to find value each day based on objective computer simulations.

2LOS ANGELES DODGERS (96-54, 64%): Winning 64% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 104-58

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Dodgers would be a good betting value. Their 26.2% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #2 in the league. Current Odds are 5/2, 28.6%. Their pre-season futures line was 92.5 wins so they have hit the over. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 91.8-58.2. At 96-54 they are in line with these expectations.

3NEW YORK YANKEES (98-52, 65.3%): Winning 62% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 105-57

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 12.2% chance is #3 in the league. Current Odds are 7/2, 22.2%. Their pre-season futures line was 97 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 87.4-62.6. At 98-52 they ahead of expectations.

4MINNESOTA TWINS (91-57, 61.5%): Winning 59% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 100-62

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 6.1% chance is #5 in the league. Current Odds are 9/1, 10%. Their pre-season futures line was 84 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 81.4-66.6. At 91-57 they are in line with these expectations.

5ATLANTA BRAVES (93-57, 62%): Winning 59% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 100-62

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 7.5% chance is #4 in the league. Current Odds are 9/1, 10%. Their pre-season futures line was 86 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 81-69. At 93-57 they ahead of expectations.

6OAKLAND ATHLETICS (89-60, 59.7%): Winning 58% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 98-64

Their simulation based win percentage (2.4%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. Their pre-season futures line was 81.5 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL. After 149 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 89-60 record.

7CLEVELAND INDIANS (86-63, 57.7%): Winning 57% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 94-68

Their 0.5% chance is #12 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. They are projected to win 94 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 91. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 85.3-63.7. At 86-63 they are in line with these expectations.

8BOSTON RED SOX (78-70, 52.7%): Winning 56% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 86-76

They are projected to win 86 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 93.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a -600 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 86.5-61.5. They are coming up short of expectations at 78-70.

9TAMPA BAY RAYS (89-61, 59.3%): Winning 56% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 95-67

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 1.7% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. Their pre-season futures line was 84.5 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 86.8-63.2. At 89-61 they are in line with these expectations.

10CHICAGO CUBS (80-68, 54.1%): Winning 55% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 88-74

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Cubs would be a good betting value. Their 3.2% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #7 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 88 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 87.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NL. After 148 games, their expected win percentage is 54% based on the money line odds. At 80-68 they are in line with these expectations.

11ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (83-65, 56.1%): Winning 55% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 90-72

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Cardinals would be a good betting value. Their 5.1% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #6 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to win 90 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 88.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 78.3-69.7. They are ahead of expectations with their 83-65 record.

12WASHINGTON NATIONALS (81-66, 55.1%): Winning 55% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 89-73

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 2.8% chance is #8 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to win 89 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 89. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NL. After 147 games, their expected win percentage is 55% based on the money line odds. At 81-66 they are in line with these expectations.

13NEW YORK METS (77-71, 52%): Winning 54% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 85-77

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.2% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 85 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 78.4-69.6. At 77-71 they are in line with these expectations.

14MILWAUKEE BREWERS (79-69, 53.4%): Winning 53% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 87-75

Their simulation based win percentage (1.2%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to win 87 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 86.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NL. After 148 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. At 79-69 they are in line with these expectations.

15ARIZONA D-BACKS (76-73, 51%): Winning 53% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 84-78

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. Their pre-season futures line was 75.5 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NL. After 149 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. At 76-73 they are in line with these expectations.

16PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (76-71, 51.7%): Winning 52% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 83-79

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 83 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 89. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NL. After 147 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. At 76-71 they are in line with these expectations.

17TEXAS RANGERS (74-76, 49.3%): Winning 49% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 79-83

Their pre-season futures line was 71 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 67.9-82.1. At 74-76 they are in line with these expectations.

18SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (71-78, 47.7%): Winning 47% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 77-85

They are projected to win 76 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +900 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 66.8-82.2. At 71-78 they ahead of expectations.

19SAN DIEGO PADRES (68-80, 45.9%): Winning 47% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 74-88

They are projected to win 74 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 78.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 73-75. At 68-80 they are in line with these expectations.

20CINCINNATI REDS (69-80, 46.3%): Winning 46% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 75-87

They are projected to win 75 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 79. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +425 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 73.5-75.5. At 69-80 they are in line with these expectations.

21PITTSBURGH PIRATES (65-84, 43.6%): Winning 46% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 71-91

They are projected to win 71 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 78.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 66.2-82.8. At 65-84 they are in line with these expectations.

22COLORADO ROCKIES (64-85, 43%): Winning 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 69-93

They are projected to win 69 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +190 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 69.2-79.8. They are coming up short of expectations at 64-85.

23LOS ANGELES ANGELS (67-82, 45%): Winning 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 71-91

They are projected to win 71 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 82. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +300 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 74-75. At 67-82 they short of expectations.

24CHICAGO WHITE SOX (65-83, 43.9%): Winning 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 72-90

They are projected to win 72 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +800 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 62.3-85.7. At 65-83 they are in line with these expectations.

25TORONTO BLUE JAYS (58-91, 38.9%): Winning 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 64-98

They are projected to win 64 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 74. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +1000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 149 games, their expected win percentage is 43% based on the money line odds. At 58-91 they are in line with these expectations.

26SEATTLE MARINERS (61-88, 40.9%): Winning 41% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 67-95

They are projected to win 67 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 65.3-83.7. At 61-88 they are in line with these expectations.

27KANSAS CITY ROYALS (55-94, 36.9%): Winning 39% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 59-103

They are projected to win 59 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 69. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 149 games, their expected win percentage is 42% based on the money line odds. At 55-94 they are in line with these expectations.

28MIAMI MARLINS (52-96, 35.1%): Winning 35% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 56-106

They are projected to win 56 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 63.5. In simulations they finish last in the NL based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +4000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 148 games, their expected win percentage is 38% based on the money line odds. At 52-96 they are in line with these expectations.

29BALTIMORE ORIOLES (48-100, 32.4%): Winning 33% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 53-109

They are projected to win 53 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 59. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +4000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 148 games, their expected win percentage is 36% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 48-100.

30DETROIT TIGERS (44-103, 29.9%): Winning 30% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 49-113

They are projected to win 49 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 68. In simulations they finish last in the AL based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 57.7-89.3. At 44-103 they short of expectations.