MLB Computer Power Ranking: Tampa Bay Rays Are #8 and Should Make Playoffs

1HOUSTON ASTROS (101-54, 65.2%): Winning 67% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 106-56

They win the championship in 30% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 11/4, 26.7%. Their pre-season futures line was 96.5 wins so they have hit the over. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 98.7-56.3. At 101-54 they ahead of expectations.

When the perception of a team is very different than how good or bad they really are there is often very good betting value. Sportsline.com is the best place to find value each day based on objective computer simulations.

2LOS ANGELES DODGERS (99-56, 63.9%): Winning 64% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 104-58

Their simulation based win percentage (27.6%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 5/2, 28.6%. Their pre-season futures line was 92.5 wins so they have hit the over. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NL. After 155 games, their expected win percentage is 61% based on the money line odds. At 99-56 they are in line with these expectations.

3NEW YORK YANKEES (101-55, 64.7%): Winning 62% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 105-57

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 12.8% chance is #3 in the league. Current Odds are 3/1, 25%. Their pre-season futures line was 97 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 91.6-64.4. At 101-55 they are in line with these expectations.

4ATLANTA BRAVES (96-60, 61.5%): Winning 59% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 100-62

Their simulation based win percentage (8.5%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 9/1, 10%. Their pre-season futures line was 86 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NL. After 156 games, their expected win percentage is 54% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 96-60 record.

5MINNESOTA TWINS (95-60, 61.3%): Winning 59% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 100-62

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 5.6% chance is #6 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. Their pre-season futures line was 84 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AL. After 155 games, their expected win percentage is 55% based on the money line odds. At 95-60 they are in line with these expectations.

6OAKLAND ATHLETICS (93-61, 60.4%): Winning 58% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 98-64

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 2% chance is #8 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. Their pre-season futures line was 81.5 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL. After 154 games, their expected win percentage is 53% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 93-61 record.

7CLEVELAND INDIANS (91-64, 58.7%): Winning 57% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 95-67

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 0.5% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. Their pre-season futures line was 91 wins so they have a push with 7 games remaining. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 89.4-65.6. At 91-64 they are in line with these expectations.

8TAMPA BAY RAYS (92-63, 59.4%): Winning 57% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 96-66

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 1.9% chance is #9 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. Their pre-season futures line was 84.5 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 89.7-65.3. At 92-63 they are in line with these expectations.

9BOSTON RED SOX (80-74, 51.9%): Winning 56% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 85-77

They are projected to win 85 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 93.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a -600 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 154 games, their expected win percentage is 58% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 80-74.

10ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (88-67, 56.8%): Winning 56% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 92-70

They win the championship in 6.3% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to win 92 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 88.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NL. After 155 games, their expected win percentage is 53% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 88-67 record.

11WASHINGTON NATIONALS (85-68, 55.6%): Winning 56% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 90-72

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 3.3% chance is #7 in the league. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to win 90 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 89. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NL. After 153 games, their expected win percentage is 55% based on the money line odds. At 85-68 they are in line with these expectations.

12CHICAGO CUBS (82-73, 52.9%): Winning 55% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 86-76

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 0.1% chance is #12 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 86 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 87.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NL. After 155 games, their expected win percentage is 55% based on the money line odds. At 82-73 they are in line with these expectations.

13MILWAUKEE BREWERS (85-70, 54.8%): Winning 54% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 89-73

Their 1.2% chance is #10 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 89 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 86.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NL. After 155 games, their expected win percentage is 53% based on the money line odds. At 85-70 they are in line with these expectations.

14NEW YORK METS (80-74, 51.9%): Winning 53% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 85-77

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 85 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 81.9-72.1. At 80-74 they are in line with these expectations.

15PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (79-74, 51.6%): Winning 52% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 84-78

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. They are projected to win 84 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 89. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 78.5-74.5. At 79-74 they are in line with these expectations.

16ARIZONA D-BACKS (80-75, 51.6%): Winning 52% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 84-78

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. Their pre-season futures line was 75.5 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 76.2-78.8. At 80-75 they are in line with these expectations.

17TEXAS RANGERS (74-81, 47.7%): Winning 50% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 77-85

Their pre-season futures line was 71 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 69.3-85.7. At 74-81 they ahead of expectations.

18SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (74-81, 47.7%): Winning 47% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 77-85

Their pre-season futures line was 73.5 wins so they have hit the over. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +900 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 69.3-85.7. At 74-81 they ahead of expectations.

19CINCINNATI REDS (73-82, 47.1%): Winning 47% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 76-86

They are projected to win 76 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 79. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +425 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 75.9-79.1. At 73-82 they are in line with these expectations.

20SAN DIEGO PADRES (69-86, 44.5%): Winning 46% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 72-90

They are projected to win 72 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 78.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 76.1-78.9. At 69-86 they short of expectations.

21PITTSBURGH PIRATES (65-90, 41.9%): Winning 45% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 68-94

They are projected to win 68 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 78.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 155 games, their expected win percentage is 44% based on the money line odds. At 65-90 they are in line with these expectations.

22CHICAGO WHITE SOX (68-86, 44.2%): Winning 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 72-90

They are projected to win 72 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +800 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 154 games, their expected win percentage is 42% based on the money line odds. At 68-86 they are in line with these expectations.

23TORONTO BLUE JAYS (63-92, 40.6%): Winning 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 66-96

They are projected to win 66 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 74. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +1000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 155 games, their expected win percentage is 43% based on the money line odds. At 63-92 they are in line with these expectations.

24COLORADO ROCKIES (67-88, 43.2%): Winning 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 69-93

They are projected to win 70 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +190 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 71.4-83.6. At 67-88 they short of expectations.

25LOS ANGELES ANGELS (70-85, 45.2%): Winning 42% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 72-90

They are projected to win 72 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 82. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +300 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 75.7-79.3. At 70-85 they are in line with these expectations.

26SEATTLE MARINERS (66-89, 42.6%): Winning 41% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 69-93

They are projected to win 69 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 68.3-86.7. At 66-89 they are in line with these expectations.

27KANSAS CITY ROYALS (57-99, 36.5%): Winning 39% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 59-103

They are projected to win 59 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 69. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 64.7-91.3. At 57-99 they are in line with these expectations.

28BALTIMORE ORIOLES (50-105, 32.3%): Winning 34% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 52-110

They are projected to win 52 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 59. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +4000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 57.1-97.9. At 50-105 they short of expectations.

29MIAMI MARLINS (53-101, 34.4%): Winning 34% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 56-106

They are projected to win 56 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 63.5. In simulations they finish last in the NL based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +4000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 154 games, their expected win percentage is 38% based on the money line odds. At 53-101 they short of expectations.

30DETROIT TIGERS (45-108, 29.4%): Winning 29% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 48-114

They are projected to win 48 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 68. In simulations they finish last in the AL based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 153 games, their expected win percentage is 39% based on the money line odds. They are coming up short of expectations at 45-108.