MLB Futures Picks for 2019

There is a small 4% gap between AL leaders. The Houston Astros lead with a 24.6 percent chance of winning the AL and the New York Yankees are at 23.7%. The Yankees may be closing the gap with their chances rising from 13.3%. The Yankees edged out the Red Sox for the best record in the AL and the best chance of winning the division after they signed Adam Ottavino. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Athletics average the #5 most wins and the Rays average the #6 so the difference (-1.22 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the AL, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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Houston Astros96.668.8%82.4%14/5 (26.3%)24.6%
New York Yankees101.047.6%93.3%14/5 (26.3%)23.7%
Boston Red Sox100.946.3%92.7%14/5 (26.3%)23.4%
Cleveland Indians92.073.2%77.1%9/2 (18.2%)11.6%
Oakland Athletics88.220.2%42.4%12/1 (7.7%)6.5%
Tampa Bay Rays89.46.0%48.5%12/1 (7.7%)4.6%
Los Angeles Angels84.39.6%23.2%30/1 (3.2%)2.7%
Minnesota Twins83.421.1%28.1%40/1 (2.4%)2.2%
Kansas City Royals76.15.1%6.8%250/1 (0.4%)0.4%
Texas Rangers74.10.8%2.6%100/1 (1%)0.1%
Chicago White Sox66.80.5%0.6%25/1 (3.8%)--
Seattle Mariners72.50.5%1.8%250/1 (0.4%)--
Toronto Blue Jays67.40.1%0.2%100/1 (1%)--
Detroit Tigers62.20.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Baltimore Orioles55.30.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

There is a large 60% gap between the Dodgers and the Nationals. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 33.5 percent chance of winning the NL and the Washington Nationals are at 21%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Nationals chances are down from 23.8 percent. A difference of 3.86 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the NL is considerable. This are 6 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the NL.

Los Angeles Dodgers99.791.9%96.0%3/1 (25%)33.5%
Washington Nationals94.467.9%83.5%7/1 (12.5%)21.0%
Chicago Cubs91.843.3%72.5%5/1 (16.7%)13.9%
Milwaukee Brewers88.726.9%57.8%9/1 (10%)9.9%
St Louis Cardinals88.726.6%57.6%6/1 (14.3%)8.8%
New York Mets84.915.9%37.9%12/1 (7.7%)4.8%
Atlanta Braves83.812.3%31.7%6/1 (14.3%)3.1%
Colorado Rockies80.53.8%18.0%15/1 (6.2%)1.5%
Philadelphia Phillies78.43.8%12.5%9/1 (10%)1.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks80.13.9%17.4%250/1 (0.4%)1.2%
Pittsburgh Pirates77.72.8%10.9%40/1 (2.4%)1.0%
San Francisco Giants71.20.3%2.0%50/1 (2%)--
San Diego Padres67.20.1%0.6%50/1 (2%)--
Cincinnati Reds69.10.3%1.2%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Marlins63.50.1%0.2%500/1 (0.2%)--

Below are the latest MLB Futures for winning the World Series. At the top, the Dodgers have a 4 percentage point lead over the Astros. The separation between the team with the #8 highest chances vs the #10 highest is 1.5 percentage points.

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Los Angeles Dodgers6/114.3%18.7%--
Houston Astros6/114.3%14.4%--
New York Yankees6/114.3%13.6%--
Boston Red Sox6/114.3%13.2%--
Washington Nationals14/16.7%10.5%--
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%6.4%--
Milwaukee Brewers18/15.3%4.6%--
Cleveland Indians10/19.1%4.2%--
St Louis Cardinals12/17.7%3.7%--
Oakland Athletics25/13.8%2.7%--
New York Mets25/13.8%1.9%--
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%1.7%--