MLB Futures Picks for 2019: Bet on Dodgers at 7/1 to Win World Series With a 20 Percent Chance

The percentage difference at the top of the AL is large at 5.4%. The New York Yankees at 24.4% trail the Houston Astros at 29.8%. The Yankees chances are up from 13.3% so they are trending in the right direction.  The Astros are not better than the Yankees or Red Sox but the easier division helps the Astros avoid the Wild Card in most simulations.  A difference of 2.72 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL is considerable. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the AL, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Houston Astros98.979.3%89.1%11/4 (26.7%)29.8%
New York Yankees101.548.8%94.0%11/4 (26.7%)24.4%
Boston Red Sox100.944.9%93.5%11/4 (26.7%)20.8%
Cleveland Indians91.977.1%80.1%5/1 (16.7%)11.8%
Tampa Bay Rays89.86.2%51.4%12/1 (7.7%)4.8%
Oakland Athletics87.013.4%36.5%12/1 (7.7%)4.1%
Los Angeles Angels83.36.3%19.9%30/1 (3.2%)2.0%
Minnesota Twins81.616.8%22.1%30/1 (3.2%)1.7%
Kansas City Royals76.15.4%7.4%250/1 (0.4%)0.4%
Texas Rangers73.40.4%2.2%100/1 (1%)0.1%
Seattle Mariners73.90.6%2.5%250/1 (0.4%)--
Chicago White Sox67.50.6%0.8%20/1 (4.8%)--
Detroit Tigers61.70.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Toronto Blue Jays67.00.1%0.3%100/1 (1%)--
Baltimore Orioles55.90.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

There is a very large 14.3% gap between the Dodgers and the Nationals. The Washington Nationals at 21.8% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 36.1%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Nationals chances are down from 23.8 percent. A difference of 4.81 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the NL is considerable. This is a top heavy league with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers100.493.9%96.9%7/2 (22.2%)36.1%
Washington Nationals94.669.3%84.0%7/1 (12.5%)21.8%
Chicago Cubs91.541.5%71.8%5/1 (16.7%)12.8%
Milwaukee Brewers89.630.2%62.9%9/1 (10%)10.2%
St Louis Cardinals88.425.5%56.5%6/1 (14.3%)8.0%
New York Mets83.611.9%31.8%12/1 (7.7%)3.5%
Atlanta Braves83.913.4%34.4%6/1 (14.3%)3.0%
Philadelphia Phillies79.65.3%16.2%7/1 (12.5%)1.6%
Colorado Rockies80.53.6%19.0%15/1 (6.2%)1.2%
Arizona Diamondbacks78.02.0%11.3%150/1 (0.7%)0.9%
Pittsburgh Pirates77.42.4%10.4%40/1 (2.4%)0.7%
San Francisco Giants71.50.4%2.4%40/1 (2.4%)0.1%
Cincinnati Reds69.80.3%1.5%50/1 (2%)--
San Diego Padres67.40.1%0.7%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Marlins63.60.1%0.2%500/1 (0.2%)--

Below are the latest MLB Futures for winning the World Series. At the top, the Dodgers have a 4 percentage point lead over the Astros. The separation between the team with the #7 highest chances vs the #9 highest is 1.2 percentage points.  

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WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Los Angeles Dodgers7/112.5%20.3%--
Houston Astros6/114.3%16.7%--
New York Yankees6/114.3%13.6%--
Washington Nationals14/16.7%11.3%--
Boston Red Sox6/114.3%11.2%--
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%6.0%--
Cleveland Indians10/19.1%4.6%--
Milwaukee Brewers18/15.3%4.4%--
St Louis Cardinals12/17.7%3.4%--
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%1.8%--
Oakland Athletics25/13.8%1.7%--
New York Mets25/13.8%1.4%--
Atlanta Braves12/17.7%1.0%--