There is a small 2.6% gap between AL leaders. The Houston Astros lead with a 29.4 percent chance of winning the AL and the New York Yankees are at 26.8%. The difference between these teams seems to be shrinking. The Astros chances are down from 39.3 percent. A difference of 5.03 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL is considerable. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the AL.
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| AL FUTURES | PROJ WINS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | WIN AL ODDS | WIN AL SIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 101.6 | 82.4% | 92.5% | 7/2 (22.2%) | 29.4% |
| New York Yankees | 98.4 | 47.7% | 83.7% | 5/4 (44.4%) | 26.8% |
| Minnesota Twins | 94.1 | 64.5% | 74.7% | 9/1 (10%) | 12.2% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 94.2 | 24.8% | 66.5% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 10.0% |
| Boston Red Sox | 94.8 | 27.4% | 70.5% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 8.2% |
| Oakland Athletics | 89.8 | 14.4% | 44.3% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 6.1% |
| Cleveland Indians | 89.6 | 33.0% | 48.3% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 6.1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 81.8 | 2.6% | 11.4% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 0.9% |
| Chicago White Sox | 76.3 | 2.2% | 4.0% | 20/1 (4.8%) | 0.3% |
| Texas Rangers | 73.5 | 0.3% | 1.5% | 25/1 (3.8%) | -- |
| Seattle Mariners | 74.3 | 0.3% | 1.9% | 250/1 (0.4%) | -- |
| Kansas City Royals | 68.9 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 250/1 (0.4%) | -- |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 66.5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 50/1 (2%) | -- |
| Baltimore Orioles | 58.0 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
| Detroit Tigers | 51.4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
The percentage difference at the top of the NL is very large at 29.1%. The Chicago Cubs at 13.9% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 42.9%. The gap seems to be widening. The Cubs chances are down from 16.7 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Braves average the #4 most wins and the Brewers average the #6 most so the difference (1.6 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the NL.
| NL FUTURES | PROJ WINS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | WIN NL ODDS | WIN NL SIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 102.6 | 92.2% | 98.2% | 9/4 (30.8%) | 42.9% |
| Chicago Cubs | 90.5 | 51.0% | 71.7% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 13.9% |
| Washington Nationals | 88.4 | 41.9% | 62.2% | 7/1 (12.5%) | 9.6% |
| Atlanta Braves | 87.0 | 34.1% | 54.9% | 5/1 (16.7%) | 8.9% |
| St Louis Cardinals | 85.1 | 21.6% | 44.1% | 6/1 (14.3%) | 6.5% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 85.4 | 24.1% | 47.0% | 20/1 (4.8%) | 6.4% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 85.6 | 6.6% | 46.0% | 20/1 (4.8%) | 5.8% |
| New York Mets | 83.6 | 19.2% | 37.5% | 7/1 (12.5%) | 3.9% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 76.6 | 4.6% | 11.5% | 9/1 (10%) | 1.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 75.8 | 0.7% | 8.5% | 50/1 (2%) | 0.3% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 73.4 | 1.9% | 5.4% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 0.3% |
| San Diego Padres | 73.4 | 0.3% | 4.7% | 25/1 (3.8%) | 0.2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 72.6 | 0.2% | 3.9% | 150/1 (0.7%) | 0.2% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 71.7 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 100/1 (1%) | 0.1% |
| Miami Marlins | 65.1 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
Below are the latest MLB Futures for winning the World Series. At the top, the Dodgers have a 7 percentage point lead over the Yankees. At the bottom of the contenders list, there is just 0.4 percent separating the Brewers from the Indians.
| WS CONTENDERS | ODDS | ODDS% | SIM% | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 6/1 | 14.3% | 24.3% | -- |
| New York Yankees | 3/1 | 25.0% | 17.1% | -- |
| Houston Astros | 8/1 | 11.1% | 15.8% | -- |
| Chicago Cubs | 30/1 | 3.2% | 6.2% | -- |
| Minnesota Twins | 20/1 | 4.8% | 5.2% | -- |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 25/1 | 3.8% | 4.7% | -- |
| Washington Nationals | 16/1 | 5.9% | 4.2% | -- |
| Boston Red Sox | 25/1 | 3.8% | 3.8% | -- |
| Atlanta Braves | 12/1 | 7.7% | 3.7% | -- |
| Oakland Athletics | 25/1 | 3.8% | 2.8% | -- |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 40/1 | 2.4% | 2.6% | -- |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 40/1 | 2.4% | 2.6% | -- |
| St Louis Cardinals | 14/1 | 6.7% | 2.5% | -- |
| Cleveland Indians | 25/1 | 3.8% | 2.1% | -- |
| New York Mets | 16/1 | 5.9% | 1.2% | -- |