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The percentage difference at the top of the AL is very large at 24.8%. The Boston Red Sox at 14.4% trail the Houston Astros at 39.1%. Both teams' ALCS championship percentages have been holding steady. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #4 best record and the team with the #6 best record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the AL, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).
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| AL FUTURES | PROJ WINS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | WIN AL ODDS | WIN AL SIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 106.8 | 83.7% | 97.6% | 9/4 (30.8%) | 39.1% |
| Boston Red Sox | 96.6 | 39.0% | 73.9% | 5/1 (16.7%) | 14.4% |
| Minnesota Twins | 95.3 | 69.3% | 78.0% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 11.7% |
| New York Yankees | 94.5 | 28.6% | 63.5% | 5/2 (28.6%) | 10.7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 95.4 | 32.4% | 68.0% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 10.4% |
| Oakland Athletics | 95.7 | 16.1% | 70.4% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 9.1% |
| Cleveland Indians | 89.6 | 30.1% | 44.3% | 6/1 (14.3%) | 4.5% |
| Seattle Mariners | 75.0 | 0.1% | 1.5% | 150/1 (0.7%) | -- |
| Los Angeles Angels | 75.0 | 0.1% | 1.4% | 50/1 (2%) | -- |
| Chicago White Sox | 70.3 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 30/1 (3.2%) | -- |
| Texas Rangers | 71.7 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 50/1 (2%) | -- |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 65.4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 40/1 (2.4%) | -- |
| Kansas City Royals | 67.4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
| Baltimore Orioles | 62.0 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
| Detroit Tigers | 51.0 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
There is a very large 25.5% gap between the Dodgers and the Cubs. The Chicago Cubs at 16.4% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 41.9%. Neither team has shown a significant positive or negative trend in recent forecasts. While 3.44 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the NL, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).
| NL FUTURES | PROJ WINS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | WIN NL ODDS | WIN NL SIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 101.1 | 93.9% | 97.3% | 5/2 (28.6%) | 41.9% |
| Chicago Cubs | 91.5 | 43.4% | 71.4% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 16.4% |
| Washington Nationals | 93.2 | 54.1% | 77.2% | 6/1 (14.3%) | 13.4% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 90.8 | 39.2% | 67.6% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 8.4% |
| Atlanta Braves | 88.9 | 28.4% | 57.3% | 9/2 (18.2%) | 8.1% |
| St Louis Cardinals | 85.4 | 16.2% | 40.0% | 8/1 (11.1%) | 5.1% |
| New York Mets | 84.2 | 12.6% | 33.7% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 3.0% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 82.3 | 4.8% | 24.9% | 25/1 (3.8%) | 1.8% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 79.5 | 4.8% | 15.8% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 1.2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 73.6 | 0.5% | 3.9% | 50/1 (2%) | 0.3% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 70.9 | 0.4% | 2.0% | 100/1 (1%) | 0.2% |
| Colorado Rockies | 74.4 | 0.5% | 4.8% | 50/1 (2%) | 0.1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 71.3 | 0.6% | 2.3% | 25/1 (3.8%) | 0.1% |
| San Diego Padres | 71.0 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 25/1 (3.8%) | -- |
| Miami Marlins | 60.3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
It is a wide open field with more teams with a decent chance of winning it all than total playoff teams. There are 11 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Dodgers have a 1 percentage point lead over the Astros. At the bottom of the contenders list, 1.5 percentage points separate the Twins from the Braves.
| WS CONTENDERS | ODDS | ODDS% | SIM% | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 6/1 | 14.3% | 24.8% | -- |
| Houston Astros | 5/1 | 16.7% | 23.8% | -- |
| Boston Red Sox | 12/1 | 7.7% | 7.6% | -- |
| Chicago Cubs | 20/1 | 4.8% | 6.7% | -- |
| Washington Nationals | 14/1 | 6.7% | 5.9% | -- |
| New York Yankees | 6/1 | 14.3% | 5.3% | -- |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 20/1 | 4.8% | 4.7% | -- |
| Oakland Athletics | 30/1 | 3.2% | 4.7% | -- |
| Minnesota Twins | 20/1 | 4.8% | 4.5% | -- |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 20/1 | 4.8% | 3.4% | -- |
| Atlanta Braves | 10/1 | 9.1% | 3.0% | -- |
| St Louis Cardinals | 18/1 | 5.3% | 1.9% | -- |
| Cleveland Indians | 14/1 | 6.7% | 1.6% | -- |
| New York Mets | 20/1 | 4.8% | 1.1% | -- |