MLB Futures Picks for 2020

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The percentage difference at the top of the AL is very large at 24.8%. The Boston Red Sox at 14.4% trail the Houston Astros at 39.1%. Both teams' ALCS championship percentages have been holding steady. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #4 best record and the team with the #6 best record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the AL, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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Houston Astros106.883.7%97.6%9/4 (30.8%)39.1%
Boston Red Sox96.639.0%73.9%5/1 (16.7%)14.4%
Minnesota Twins95.369.3%78.0%10/1 (9.1%)11.7%
New York Yankees94.528.6%63.5%5/2 (28.6%)10.7%
Tampa Bay Rays95.432.4%68.0%10/1 (9.1%)10.4%
Oakland Athletics95.716.1%70.4%15/1 (6.2%)9.1%
Cleveland Indians89.630.1%44.3%6/1 (14.3%)4.5%
Seattle Mariners75.00.1%1.5%150/1 (0.7%)--
Los Angeles Angels75.00.1%1.4%50/1 (2%)--
Chicago White Sox70.30.4%0.6%30/1 (3.2%)--
Texas Rangers71.70.1%0.5%50/1 (2%)--
Toronto Blue Jays65.40.1%0.1%40/1 (2.4%)--
Kansas City Royals67.40.2%0.2%500/1 (0.2%)--
Baltimore Orioles62.00.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Detroit Tigers51.00.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

There is a very large 25.5% gap between the Dodgers and the Cubs. The Chicago Cubs at 16.4% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 41.9%. Neither team has shown a significant positive or negative trend in recent forecasts. While 3.44 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the NL, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

Los Angeles Dodgers101.193.9%97.3%5/2 (28.6%)41.9%
Chicago Cubs91.543.4%71.4%10/1 (9.1%)16.4%
Washington Nationals93.254.1%77.2%6/1 (14.3%)13.4%
Milwaukee Brewers90.839.2%67.6%10/1 (9.1%)8.4%
Atlanta Braves88.928.4%57.3%9/2 (18.2%)8.1%
St Louis Cardinals85.416.2%40.0%8/1 (11.1%)5.1%
New York Mets84.212.6%33.7%10/1 (9.1%)3.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks82.34.8%24.9%25/1 (3.8%)1.8%
Philadelphia Phillies79.54.8%15.8%10/1 (9.1%)1.2%
San Francisco Giants73.60.5%3.9%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Pittsburgh Pirates70.90.4%2.0%100/1 (1%)0.2%
Colorado Rockies74.40.5%4.8%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Cincinnati Reds71.30.6%2.3%25/1 (3.8%)0.1%
San Diego Padres71.00.3%1.7%25/1 (3.8%)--
Miami Marlins60.30.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

It is a wide open field with more teams with a decent chance of winning it all than total playoff teams. There are 11 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Dodgers have a 1 percentage point lead over the Astros. At the bottom of the contenders list, 1.5 percentage points separate the Twins from the Braves.

Los Angeles Dodgers6/114.3%24.8%--
Houston Astros5/116.7%23.8%--
Boston Red Sox12/17.7%7.6%--
Chicago Cubs20/14.8%6.7%--
Washington Nationals14/16.7%5.9%--
New York Yankees6/114.3%5.3%--
Tampa Bay Rays20/14.8%4.7%--
Oakland Athletics30/13.2%4.7%--
Minnesota Twins20/14.8%4.5%--
Milwaukee Brewers20/14.8%3.4%--
Atlanta Braves10/19.1%3.0%--
St Louis Cardinals18/15.3%1.9%--
Cleveland Indians14/16.7%1.6%--
New York Mets20/14.8%1.1%--