The percentage difference at the top of the AL is very large at 12.1%. The Houston Astros at 22.2% trail the New York Yankees at 34.3%. The gap seems to be widening. The Astros chances are down from 39.3 percent. While 2.29 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the AL, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).
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| AL FUTURES | PROJ WINS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | WIN AL ODDS | WIN AL SIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 101.2 | 73.2% | 92.4% | 5/4 (44.4%) | 34.3% |
| Houston Astros | 97.7 | 67.0% | 84.3% | 7/2 (22.2%) | 22.2% |
| Minnesota Twins | 96.8 | 73.7% | 85.0% | 9/1 (10%) | 16.7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 92.6 | 19.2% | 62.3% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 8.2% |
| Oakland Athletics | 89.6 | 19.5% | 47.8% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 6.7% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 87.3 | 13.0% | 34.7% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 4.2% |
| Cleveland Indians | 88.7 | 22.0% | 44.3% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 4.1% |
| Boston Red Sox | 87.1 | 7.1% | 32.9% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 2.5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 80.1 | 4.2% | 10.5% | 20/1 (4.8%) | 0.7% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 75.7 | 0.5% | 3.1% | 50/1 (2%) | 0.2% |
| Texas Rangers | 74.2 | 0.5% | 2.4% | 25/1 (3.8%) | -- |
| Kansas City Royals | 65.2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 250/1 (0.4%) | -- |
| Seattle Mariners | 64.2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 250/1 (0.4%) | -- |
| Baltimore Orioles | 56.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
| Detroit Tigers | 52.3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
There is a huge 34% gap between NL leaders. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 44.8 percent chance of winning the NL and the Washington Nationals are at 10.8%. The gap seems to be widening. The Nationals chances are down from 14 percent. A difference of 2.17 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the NL is considerable. There is parity in the league. There are 8 teams winning the NL in at least four percent of our playoff simulations.
| NL FUTURES | PROJ WINS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | WIN NL ODDS | WIN NL SIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 107.5 | 95.5% | 99.7% | 9/4 (30.8%) | 44.8% |
| Washington Nationals | 88.1 | 38.0% | 58.6% | 7/1 (12.5%) | 10.8% |
| Atlanta Braves | 87.0 | 31.5% | 53.2% | 5/1 (16.7%) | 8.9% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 87.9 | 4.3% | 56.5% | 20/1 (4.8%) | 7.4% |
| Chicago Cubs | 86.3 | 33.9% | 49.7% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 6.8% |
| St Louis Cardinals | 84.1 | 24.6% | 39.0% | 6/1 (14.3%) | 5.8% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 83.6 | 22.8% | 36.9% | 20/1 (4.8%) | 4.8% |
| New York Mets | 84.0 | 19.4% | 38.0% | 7/1 (12.5%) | 4.5% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 82.5 | 18.2% | 30.8% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 3.3% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 81.0 | 10.8% | 23.1% | 9/1 (10%) | 2.5% |
| San Diego Padres | 74.4 | 0.1% | 5.5% | 25/1 (3.8%) | 0.2% |
| Colorado Rockies | 72.8 | 0.1% | 3.8% | 50/1 (2%) | 0.2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 72.3 | 0.1% | 3.7% | 150/1 (0.7%) | -- |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.7 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 100/1 (1%) | -- |
| Miami Marlins | 62.6 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
There are a lot of fanbases who should think that they have a shot at winning the World Series. There are 12 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Yankees have a 21 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 8 percentage points behind the Dodgers. At the bottom of the contenders list, 0.8 percentage points separate the Cubs from the Brewers.
| WS CONTENDERS | ODDS | ODDS% | SIM% | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 6/1 | 14.3% | 29.1% | -- |
| New York Yankees | 3/1 | 25.0% | 20.6% | -- |
| Houston Astros | 8/1 | 11.1% | 9.7% | -- |
| Minnesota Twins | 20/1 | 4.8% | 6.5% | -- |
| Washington Nationals | 16/1 | 5.9% | 5.3% | -- |
| Atlanta Braves | 12/1 | 7.7% | 3.7% | -- |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 40/1 | 2.4% | 3.4% | -- |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 25/1 | 3.8% | 3.2% | -- |
| Oakland Athletics | 25/1 | 3.8% | 3.2% | -- |
| Chicago Cubs | 30/1 | 3.2% | 2.8% | -- |
| St Louis Cardinals | 14/1 | 6.7% | 2.1% | -- |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 40/1 | 2.4% | 2.0% | -- |
| Los Angeles Angels | 30/1 | 3.2% | 1.7% | -- |
| New York Mets | 16/1 | 5.9% | 1.5% | -- |
| Cleveland Indians | 25/1 | 3.8% | 1.4% | -- |
| Cincinnati Reds | 30/1 | 3.2% | 1.2% | -- |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 18/1 | 5.3% | 1.0% | -- |