MLB Futures Picks for 2020

There is a small 2.6% gap between AL leaders. The Houston Astros lead with a 29.4 percent chance of winning the AL and the New York Yankees are at 26.8%. The difference between these teams seems to be shrinking. The Astros chances are down from 39.3 percent. A difference of 5.03 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL is considerable. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the AL.

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Houston Astros101.682.4%92.5%7/2 (22.2%)29.4%
New York Yankees98.447.7%83.7%5/4 (44.4%)26.8%
Minnesota Twins94.164.5%74.7%9/1 (10%)12.2%
Tampa Bay Rays94.224.8%66.5%12/1 (7.7%)10.0%
Boston Red Sox94.827.4%70.5%12/1 (7.7%)8.2%
Oakland Athletics89.814.4%44.3%12/1 (7.7%)6.1%
Cleveland Indians89.633.0%48.3%12/1 (7.7%)6.1%
Los Angeles Angels81.82.6%11.4%15/1 (6.2%)0.9%
Chicago White Sox76.32.2%4.0%20/1 (4.8%)0.3%
Texas Rangers73.50.3%1.5%25/1 (3.8%)--
Seattle Mariners74.30.3%1.9%250/1 (0.4%)--
Kansas City Royals68.90.3%0.5%250/1 (0.4%)--
Toronto Blue Jays66.50.1%0.2%50/1 (2%)--
Baltimore Orioles58.00.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Detroit Tigers51.40.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is very large at 29.1%. The Chicago Cubs at 13.9% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 42.9%. The gap seems to be widening. The Cubs chances are down from 16.7 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Braves average the #4 most wins and the Brewers average the #6 most so the difference (1.6 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the NL.

Los Angeles Dodgers102.692.2%98.2%9/4 (30.8%)42.9%
Chicago Cubs90.551.0%71.7%15/1 (6.2%)13.9%
Washington Nationals88.441.9%62.2%7/1 (12.5%)9.6%
Atlanta Braves87.034.1%54.9%5/1 (16.7%)8.9%
St Louis Cardinals85.121.6%44.1%6/1 (14.3%)6.5%
Milwaukee Brewers85.424.1%47.0%20/1 (4.8%)6.4%
Arizona Diamondbacks85.66.6%46.0%20/1 (4.8%)5.8%
New York Mets83.619.2%37.5%7/1 (12.5%)3.9%
Philadelphia Phillies76.64.6%11.5%9/1 (10%)1.0%
Colorado Rockies75.80.7%8.5%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Cincinnati Reds73.41.9%5.4%15/1 (6.2%)0.3%
San Diego Padres73.40.3%4.7%25/1 (3.8%)0.2%
San Francisco Giants72.60.2%3.9%150/1 (0.7%)0.2%
Pittsburgh Pirates71.71.2%3.5%100/1 (1%)0.1%
Miami Marlins65.10.2%0.5%500/1 (0.2%)--

Below are the latest MLB Futures for winning the World Series. At the top, the Dodgers have a 7 percentage point lead over the Yankees. At the bottom of the contenders list, there is just 0.4 percent separating the Brewers from the Indians.

Los Angeles Dodgers6/114.3%24.3%--
New York Yankees3/125.0%17.1%--
Houston Astros8/111.1%15.8%--
Chicago Cubs30/13.2%6.2%--
Minnesota Twins20/14.8%5.2%--
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%4.7%--
Washington Nationals16/15.9%4.2%--
Boston Red Sox25/13.8%3.8%--
Atlanta Braves12/17.7%3.7%--
Oakland Athletics25/13.8%2.8%--
Arizona Diamondbacks40/12.4%2.6%--
Milwaukee Brewers40/12.4%2.6%--
St Louis Cardinals14/16.7%2.5%--
Cleveland Indians25/13.8%2.1%--
New York Mets16/15.9%1.2%--