MLB Futures Picks for 2020

The percentage difference at the top of the AL is very large at 12.1%. The Houston Astros at 22.2% trail the New York Yankees at 34.3%. The gap seems to be widening. The Astros chances are down from 39.3 percent. While 2.29 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the AL, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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New York Yankees101.273.2%92.4%5/4 (44.4%)34.3%
Houston Astros97.767.0%84.3%7/2 (22.2%)22.2%
Minnesota Twins96.873.7%85.0%9/1 (10%)16.7%
Tampa Bay Rays92.619.2%62.3%12/1 (7.7%)8.2%
Oakland Athletics89.619.5%47.8%12/1 (7.7%)6.7%
Los Angeles Angels87.313.0%34.7%15/1 (6.2%)4.2%
Cleveland Indians88.722.0%44.3%12/1 (7.7%)4.1%
Boston Red Sox87.17.1%32.9%12/1 (7.7%)2.5%
Chicago White Sox80.14.2%10.5%20/1 (4.8%)0.7%
Toronto Blue Jays75.70.5%3.1%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Texas Rangers74.20.5%2.4%25/1 (3.8%)--
Kansas City Royals65.20.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Seattle Mariners64.20.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Baltimore Orioles56.50.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Detroit Tigers52.30.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

There is a huge 34% gap between NL leaders. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 44.8 percent chance of winning the NL and the Washington Nationals are at 10.8%. The gap seems to be widening. The Nationals chances are down from 14 percent. A difference of 2.17 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the NL is considerable. There is parity in the league. There are 8 teams winning the NL in at least four percent of our playoff simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers107.595.5%99.7%9/4 (30.8%)44.8%
Washington Nationals88.138.0%58.6%7/1 (12.5%)10.8%
Atlanta Braves87.031.5%53.2%5/1 (16.7%)8.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks87.94.3%56.5%20/1 (4.8%)7.4%
Chicago Cubs86.333.9%49.7%15/1 (6.2%)6.8%
St Louis Cardinals84.124.6%39.0%6/1 (14.3%)5.8%
Milwaukee Brewers83.622.8%36.9%20/1 (4.8%)4.8%
New York Mets84.019.4%38.0%7/1 (12.5%)4.5%
Cincinnati Reds82.518.2%30.8%15/1 (6.2%)3.3%
Philadelphia Phillies81.010.8%23.1%9/1 (10%)2.5%
San Diego Padres74.40.1%5.5%25/1 (3.8%)0.2%
Colorado Rockies72.80.1%3.8%50/1 (2%)0.2%
San Francisco Giants72.30.1%3.7%150/1 (0.7%)--
Pittsburgh Pirates66.70.4%0.9%100/1 (1%)--
Miami Marlins62.60.1%0.3%500/1 (0.2%)--

There are a lot of fanbases who should think that they have a shot at winning the World Series. There are 12 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Yankees have a 21 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 8 percentage points behind the Dodgers. At the bottom of the contenders list, 0.8 percentage points separate the Cubs from the Brewers.

Los Angeles Dodgers6/114.3%29.1%--
New York Yankees3/125.0%20.6%--
Houston Astros8/111.1%9.7%--
Minnesota Twins20/14.8%6.5%--
Washington Nationals16/15.9%5.3%--
Atlanta Braves12/17.7%3.7%--
Arizona Diamondbacks40/12.4%3.4%--
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%3.2%--
Oakland Athletics25/13.8%3.2%--
Chicago Cubs30/13.2%2.8%--
St Louis Cardinals14/16.7%2.1%--
Milwaukee Brewers40/12.4%2.0%--
Los Angeles Angels30/13.2%1.7%--
New York Mets16/15.9%1.5%--
Cleveland Indians25/13.8%1.4%--
Cincinnati Reds30/13.2%1.2%--
Philadelphia Phillies18/15.3%1.0%--