MLB Futures: Yankees and Red Sox Both Good Over Picks for Win Totals… But Houston Astros Are Best Value to Win AL

There is a large 5.1% gap between the Astros and the Yankees. The New York Yankees at 24.2% trails the Houston Astros at 29.3%. The Yankees chances are up from 13.3% so they are trending in the right direction. While 2.78 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. This is a top heavy league with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Houston Astros98.679.2%89.3%11/4 (26.7%)29.3%
New York Yankees101.148.3%94.2%11/4 (26.7%)24.2%
Boston Red Sox100.845.6%93.2%11/4 (26.7%)21.5%
Cleveland Indians91.474.5%78.0%5/1 (16.7%)11.6%
Tampa Bay Rays89.66.0%50.8%12/1 (7.7%)4.9%
Oakland Athletics86.812.9%35.7%12/1 (7.7%)3.9%
Los Angeles Angels83.26.4%19.6%30/1 (3.2%)1.9%
Minnesota Twins82.118.7%24.2%30/1 (3.2%)1.7%
Kansas City Royals76.26.0%7.8%250/1 (0.4%)0.6%
Texas Rangers74.50.7%3.1%100/1 (1%)0.2%
Seattle Mariners73.90.7%2.6%250/1 (0.4%)0.2%
Chicago White Sox67.20.7%0.8%20/1 (4.8%)--
Detroit Tigers61.50.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Toronto Blue Jays67.20.1%0.3%100/1 (1%)--
Baltimore Orioles56.00.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is very large at 13.5%. The Washington Nationals at 22.1% trails the Los Angeles Dodgers at 35.6%. The gap seems to be widening. The Nationals chances are down from 23.8 percent. While 4.58 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the NL with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers100.794.3%97.4%7/2 (22.2%)35.6%
Washington Nationals94.669.2%84.0%7/1 (12.5%)22.1%
Chicago Cubs91.441.9%71.6%5/1 (16.7%)13.4%
Milwaukee Brewers89.630.1%62.3%9/1 (10%)10.3%
St Louis Cardinals88.124.5%54.8%6/1 (14.3%)7.6%
New York Mets83.512.1%31.8%12/1 (7.7%)3.7%
Atlanta Braves84.012.8%34.2%6/1 (14.3%)3.0%
Philadelphia Phillies80.05.8%17.8%7/1 (12.5%)1.8%
Colorado Rockies80.63.5%19.0%15/1 (6.2%)0.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks77.81.9%11.1%150/1 (0.7%)0.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates77.83.1%11.5%40/1 (2.4%)0.7%
San Francisco Giants71.30.3%2.2%40/1 (2.4%)0.1%
Cincinnati Reds69.80.3%1.5%50/1 (2%)--
San Diego Padres67.50.1%0.6%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Marlins63.20.1%0.2%500/1 (0.2%)--

Below are the latest MLB Futures for winning the World Series. At #2, the Astros have a 16 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 4 percentage points behind the Dodgers. At the bottom of the contenders list, 1.4 percentage points separate the Brewers from the Cardinals.

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WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Los Angeles Dodgers7/112.5%19.9%--
Houston Astros6/114.3%16.4%--
New York Yankees6/114.3%13.7%--
Boston Red Sox6/114.3%11.4%--
Washington Nationals14/16.7%11.3%--
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%5.8%--
Milwaukee Brewers18/15.3%5.0%--
Cleveland Indians10/19.1%4.1%--
St Louis Cardinals12/17.7%3.6%--
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%1.7%--
Oakland Athletics25/13.8%1.5%--
New York Mets25/13.8%1.4%--
Atlanta Braves12/17.7%1.2%--