MLB Money Line Plays: Bet on Dodgers to End Skid vs Brewers

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Sunday, April 14, 2019

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Red Sox to win the game. The projected score is BOS 6.5 and BAL 3.8, and Boston is winning 82% of the sims. At -260 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Red Sox a 72 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Red Sox have been dominating this matchup recently with a 17-4 record and they have the large edge in profit at +397 to -840 units. In these games the Red Sox averaged 6.6 runs per game and the Orioles 3.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Orioles+2364.33.829%18%3.8 (4 Wins)
Boston Red Sox-2605.76.571%82%6.6 (17 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees

The Yankees are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is NYY 5.3 and CHW 3.9, with New York winning 71% of the time. The moneyline for the Yankees is -182 which translates to 65 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the White Sox based on how the moneyline is moving. The Yankees have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3 but the Yankees get the large edge in profit at +-55 to 118 units. In these games the Yankees averaged 4.5 runs per game and the White Sox 3.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago White Sox+1603.83.937%29%3.6 (3 Wins)
New York Yankees-1824.75.363%71%4.5 (5 Wins)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

The Rays are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Rays 4.9 and Blue Jays 3.8, and Tampa Bay is winning 62% of simulations. The Rays are -152 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rays going 14-7. They have the large edge in units at +474 to -469. The average moneyline for the Rays was -107 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Rays averaged 5.1 and the Blue Jays 3.3 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Rays-1524.34.958%62%5.1 (14 Wins)
Toronto Blue Jays+1303.73.842%38%3.3 (7 Wins)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

The Phillies are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Phillies 5 and Marlins 3.9, with Philadelphia winning 62% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Phillies is -181 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Phillies have been dominating this matchup recently with a 12-9 record but the Phillies get the large edge in profit at +-198 to 91 units. The Phillies were -161 favorites on average. In these games, the Phillies averaged 5.5 and the Marlins 3.3 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Phillies-1814.75.063%62%5.5 (12 Wins)
Miami Marlins+1673.83.937%38%3.3 (9 Wins)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Nationals over the Pirates. The projected score is WAS 4.8 and PIT 3.7, with Washington winning 67% of the time. At -200 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Nationals a 67 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Nationals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-3 record. They have the large edge in units at +121 to -212 units. The average moneyline for the Pirates was +88 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Nationals averaged 4.6 runs per game and the Pirates 3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates+1633.33.736%33%3.0 (3 Wins)
Washington Nationals-2004.24.864%67%4.6 (6 Wins)

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins

The Twins are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is MIN 5.3 and DET 3.8, and Minnesota is winning 72% of the sims. The moneyline for the Twins is -213 which translates to 68 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Twins going 24-15. They have the large edge in units at +275 to -683 units. The average moneyline for the Tigers was +77 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Twins averaged 5.8 runs per game and the Tigers 4.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Tigers+1753.53.835%28%4.2 (15 Wins)
Minnesota Twins-2134.55.365%72%5.8 (24 Wins)

Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Indians to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Indians 4.7 and Royals 4, with Cleveland winning 58% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Indians is -138 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Indians have been dominating this matchup recently with a 24-16 record. The Indians actually have the large edge in profit at +-302 to 268 units. The Indians were -196 favorites on average. In these games, the Indians averaged 4.8 and the Royals 3.4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Indians-1384.04.757%58%4.8 (24 Wins)
Kansas City Royals+1283.54.043%42%3.4 (16 Wins)

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs

The odds and our simulations favor the Cubs over the Angels, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is CHC 4.5 and LAA 4.2, and Chicago is winning 57% of simulations. The moneyline for the Cubs is -145 which translates to 59 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Angels since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons but the Cubs get the large edge in profit at +-44 to 80 units. In these games the Cubs averaged 5 runs per game and the Angels 3.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Angels+1254.14.243%43%3.5 (1 Win)
Chicago Cubs-1454.64.557%57%5.0 (1 Win)

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Athletics to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Athletics 6.3 and Rangers 4.8, and Oakland is winning 63% of simulations. At -129 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Athletics a 56 percent chance of winning. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Athletics going 25-14 and they have the large edge in profit at +690 to -1038 units. The average moneyline for the Rangers was +40 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Athletics averaged 5.3 and the Rangers 4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oakland Athletics-1295.46.355%63%5.3 (25 Wins)
Texas Rangers+1195.14.845%37%4.0 (14 Wins)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Rockies. The projected score is Rockies 4.1 and Giants 4, with Colorado being given a 50% chance of winning. At -125 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Rockies a 56 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Rockies have the recent head-to-head edge going 12-10. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Rockies are at -21 and the Giants are -229 against each other. The average moneyline for the Giants was +32 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Rockies averaged 4.2 and the Giants 3.7 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Colorado Rockies-1253.64.153%50%4.2 (12 Wins)
San Francisco Giants+1053.44.247%50%3.7 (10 Wins)

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the D-Backs over the Padres. The projected score is ARI 4.7 and SD 3.7, with Arizona winning 66% of the time. At -143 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the D-Backs a 59 percent chance of winning. People are betting more heavily on the D-Backs based on how the moneyline is moving. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the D-Backs going 14-11 but both teams are down overall playing each other (Padres -39 units, D-Backs -66 units). In these games the D-Backs averaged 5.3 runs per game and the Padres 3.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Diego Padres+1324.03.742%34%3.7 (11 Wins)
Arizona Diamondbacks-1434.54.758%66%5.3 (14 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds

The odds favor the Cardinals, but the sims are solidly on the Cardinals. The projected score is Cardinals 5.3 and Reds 3.9, with St. Louis winning 64% of the latest sims. At -125 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Cardinals a 56 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Cardinals going 22-17. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Cardinals are at -178 and the Reds are -112 against each other. The Cardinals were -121 favorites on average. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 5 and the Reds 4.4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals-1255.15.353%64%5.0 (22 Wins)
Cincinnati Reds+1054.93.947%36%4.4 (17 Wins)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is LAD 4.3 and MIL 3.8, and Los Angeles is winning 61% of simulations. The moneyline for the Dodgers is -147 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Dodgers since the moneyline is moving that way. They both have 8 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. The Dodgers actually have the large edge in profit at +-233 to 300 units. In these games the Dodgers averaged 4.8 runs per game and the Brewers 3.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Brewers+1254.33.843%39%3.8 (8 Wins)
Los Angeles Dodgers-1474.74.357%61%4.8 (8 Wins)

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners

The odds and our simulations favor the Astros over the Mariners despite being on the road. The projected score is Astros 4.4 and Mariners 3.8, with Houston winning 56% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Astros is -165 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Astros based on how the moneyline is moving. In their last 21 matchups the Astros are 11-10 but the Astros get the large edge in profit at +-327 to 347 units. The Astros were -165 favorites on average. In these games, the Astros averaged 4.4 and the Mariners 3.9 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Astros-1654.64.461%56%4.4 (11 Wins)
Seattle Mariners+1553.93.839%44%3.9 (10 Wins)

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves

The simulations slightly favor the Braves who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is ATL 4.9 and NYM 4.8, and Atlanta is winning 52% of the sims. The Mets are -155 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 61 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Braves going 14-8. They have the large edge in units at +659 to -602 units. In these games the Braves averaged 4.6 runs per game and the Mets 3.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Mets-1554.64.860%48%3.5 (8 Wins)
Atlanta Braves+1453.94.940%52%4.6 (14 Wins)