MLB Money Line Value: Decent Play on Home Underdog Nationals vs Mets

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Thursday, May 16, 2019

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Brewers are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Brewers 4.8 and Phillies 4.4, with Milwaukee winning 52% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Phillies is -115 which translates to 53 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 9 matchups the Brewers are 5-4. They have the large edge in units at +60 to -89. In these games, the Brewers averaged 7.2 and the Phillies 4.1 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Brewers+1074.44.847%52%7.2 (5 Wins)
Philadelphia Phillies-1154.64.453%48%4.1 (4 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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New York Mets vs Washington Nationals

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Mets. The projected score is Mets 4.9 and Nationals 4.8, with New York being given a 50% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Mets is -139 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Mets to win. The Mets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 15-12 record and they have the large edge in profit at +555 to -508 units. The average moneyline for the Mets was +49 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Nationals averaged 5.5 runs per game and the Mets 4.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Mets-1394.74.957%50%4.5 (15 Wins)
Washington Nationals+1294.35.043%50%5.5 (12 Wins)

Oakland Athletics vs Detroit Tigers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Athletics to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Athletics 5 and Tigers 3.6, with Oakland being given a 66% chance of winning. The Athletics are -147 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Athletics to win. The Athletics have been dominating this matchup recently with a 12-1 record and they have the large edge in profit at +808 to -1100 units. The Athletics were -139 favorites on average. In these games, the Athletics averaged 5.1 and the Tigers 3.5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oakland Athletics-1474.55.057%66%5.1 (12 Wins)
Detroit Tigers+1254.03.643%34%3.5 (1 Win)

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Royals. The projected score is KC 5.5 and TEX 5.4, with Kansas City winning 52% of the time. At -108 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Royals a 52 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Rangers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-3 record. They have the large edge in units at +172 to -276. The average moneyline for the Rangers was -84 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Rangers averaged 4.6 and the Royals 4.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Texas Rangers-1014.95.449%48%4.6 (6 Wins)
Kansas City Royals-1085.15.551%52%4.2 (3 Wins)

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Indians

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Indians to win the game. The projected score is CLE 5.2 and BAL 3.6, with Cleveland winning 74% of the time. The moneyline for the Indians is -293 which translates to 75 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Indians have been dominating this matchup recently with a 11-3 record and they have the large edge in profit at +262 to -685 units. In these games the Indians averaged 4.7 runs per game and the Orioles 1.9.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Orioles+2653.73.627%26%1.9 (3 Wins)
Cleveland Indians-2935.35.273%74%4.7 (11 Wins)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Cubs are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Cubs 4.6 and Reds 4.2, with Chicago being given a 53% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Reds is -115 which translates to 53 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Cubs going 12-9 but both teams are down overall playing each other (Cubs -198 units, Reds -76 units). The Reds were +118 underdogs on average. In these games, the Cubs averaged 4.7 and the Reds 3.5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Cubs+1064.24.648%53%4.7 (12 Wins)
Cincinnati Reds-1154.34.252%47%3.5 (9 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Cardinals are slightly favored. The projected score is Cardinals 5 and Braves 4.6, and St. Louis is winning 52% of simulations. The Cardinals are -102 on the moneyline and the Braves are -106. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Braves have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3 and they have the large edge in profit at +215 to -178 units. The average moneyline for the Braves was -7 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 5.8 and the Braves 5.4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals-1024.95.050%52%5.8 (3 Wins)
Atlanta Braves-1065.14.650%48%5.4 (5 Wins)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox

The odds and our simulations favor the Blue Jays over the White Sox despite being on the road. The projected score is Blue Jays 4.8 and White Sox 4, with Toronto winning 58% of the latest sims. The Blue Jays are -139 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Blue Jays to win. In their last 9 matchups the Blue Jays are 5-4 but the Blue Jays get the significant edge in profit at +-18 to 59 units. The Blue Jays were -126 favorites on average. In these games, the Blue Jays averaged 5.6 and the White Sox 4.9 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Blue Jays-1394.74.857%58%5.6 (5 Wins)
Chicago White Sox+1284.34.043%42%4.9 (4 Wins)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres

The simulations slightly favor the Pirates who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Pirates 3.9 and Padres 3.4, and Pittsburgh is winning 54% of simulations. The moneyline for the Padres is -125 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 13 matchups the Padres are 7-6 and they have the large edge in profit at +215 to -278 units. The Pirates were -125 favorites on average. In these games, the Pirates averaged 4.5 and the Padres 4.3 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates+1053.93.947%54%4.5 (6 Wins)
San Diego Padres-1254.13.453%46%4.3 (7 Wins)

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Twins. The projected score is Twins 5.4 and Mariners 5, with Minnesota winning 52% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Twins is -125 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Twins based on how the moneyline is moving. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Mariners going 9-4. They have the large edge in units at +469 to -528 units. The average moneyline for the Twins was -42 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Mariners averaged 5.5 runs per game and the Twins 4.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Twins-1254.95.453%52%4.3 (4 Wins)
Seattle Mariners+1054.65.047%48%5.5 (9 Wins)