SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
The Orioles are not contenders to win the championship at 1000/1, 0.1%. They are one of 3 teams with these odds (#28 in the league). They have no chance to win the championship. They are not a good value to win the AL either at 500/1, 0.2%. Both the simulations and oddsmakers have them at 56.5 wins. At +4000 the Orioles are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 0.1% chance. They have less than 1% chance to win the division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AL.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Their 54-108 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 59.9-102.1. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1942) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 71-91 (-2138 loss). They went over 81 times and came in under 70 times. In their next game vs the Yankees they are only winning 31% of the simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 NYY||31%||2-17, -1125||16-3|
|3/28 NYY||28%||2-17, -1125||16-3|
|3/29 NYY||30%||2-17, -1125||16-3|
|3/30 BOS||40%||7-12, +77||8-10-1|
|3/31 BOS||31%||7-12, +77||8-10-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Since last season their average run differential is -1.56 which ranks #14 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #14 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 162 Games||4.5 (#11)||0.246 (#12)||0.589 (#13)|
|Road||4.6 (#11)||0.245 (#10)||0.581 (#12)|
|Home||4.4 (#11)||0.248 (#9)||0.598 (#10)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||6.1 (#15)||0.271 (#13)||0.674 (#15)|
|Road||5.5 (#14)||0.261 (#11||0.635 (#11)|
|Home||6.6 (#15)||0.281 (#14)||0.712 (#15)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Trey Mancini who is projected to be the #8 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Trey Mancini||98||8||Juan Soto||Starling Marte|
|Anthony Santander||46||46||Randal Grichuk||Brandon Nimmo|
|Rio Ruiz||1||25||Maikel Franco||Yandy Diaz|
|Hanser Alberto||30||20||Ryan McMahon||Jurickson Profar|
|Renato Nunez||60||31||Miguel Cabrera||Ryan O'Hearn|
|Austin Hays||18||78||Steven Souza||Manuel Margot|
|Jose Iglesias||9||29||Niko Goodrum||J.P. Crawford|
|Pedro Severino||11||19||Omar Narvaez||Martin Maldonado|
|Chris Davis||1||48||Patrick Wisdom||C.J. Cron|
|Richie Martin||1||38||Johan Camargo||Ehire Adrianza|