MLB Outlook for the Baltimore Orioles in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Orioles are not contenders to win the championship at 1000/1, 0.1%. They are one of 3 teams with these odds (#28 in the league). They have no chance to win the championship. They are not a good value to win the AL either at 500/1, 0.2%. Both the simulations and oddsmakers have them at 56.5 wins. At +4000 the Orioles are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 0.1% chance. They have less than 1% chance to win the division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 54-108 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 59.9-102.1. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1942) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 71-91 (-2138 loss). They went over 81 times and came in under 70 times. In their next game vs the Yankees they are only winning 31% of the simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 NYY31%2-17, -112516-3
3/28 NYY28%2-17, -112516-3
3/29 NYY30%2-17, -112516-3
3/30 BOS40%7-12, +778-10-1
3/31 BOS31%7-12, +778-10-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Since last season their average run differential is -1.56 which ranks #14 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #14 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games4.5 (#11)0.246 (#12)0.589 (#13)
Road4.6 (#11)0.245 (#10)0.581 (#12)
Home4.4 (#11)0.248 (#9)0.598 (#10)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All6.1 (#15)0.271 (#13)0.674 (#15)
Road5.5 (#14)0.261 (#110.635 (#11)
Home6.6 (#15)0.281 (#14)0.712 (#15)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Trey Mancini who is projected to be the #8 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Trey Mancini988Juan SotoStarling Marte
Anthony Santander4646Randal GrichukBrandon Nimmo
Rio Ruiz125Maikel FrancoYandy Diaz
Hanser Alberto3020Ryan McMahonJurickson Profar
Renato Nunez6031Miguel CabreraRyan O'Hearn
Austin Hays1878Steven SouzaManuel Margot
Jose Iglesias929Niko GoodrumJ.P. Crawford
Pedro Severino1119Omar NarvaezMartin Maldonado
Chris Davis148Patrick WisdomC.J. Cron
Richie Martin138Johan CamargoEhire Adrianza