SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
There are 4 teams who have 25/1, 3.8% odds to win the World Series. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1% chance is #18 in the league. In simulations, they win the AL 2.5% of the time and are not a good value at 12/1, 7.7%. The Red Sox are averaging 87.1 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 87.5 wins. At -600 the Red Sox are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 32.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 10/1, 9.1%. They win the division in 7.1% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AL.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Their 84-78 record last season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 94-68. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -2319 units. They were not good against the spread going 68-94 (-4111 loss). They went over 91 times and came in under 67 times. Their next game vs the Blue Jays should be close. The Red Sox are winning 49 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 TOR||49%||11-8, -200||12-6-1|
|3/27 TOR||56%||11-8, -200||12-6-1|
|3/28 TOR||56%||11-8, -200||12-6-1|
|3/29 TOR||52%||11-8, -200||12-6-1|
|3/30 BAL||60%||12-7, -236||8-10-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Since last season their average run differential is +0.44 which ranks #7 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #7 ranked team among home teams.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 162 Games||5.6 (#3)||0.269 (#2)||0.646 (#4)|
|Road||5.5 (#3)||0.261 (#5)||0.612 (#7)|
|Home||5.6 (#3)||0.278 (#1)||0.684 (#1)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||5.1 (#7)||0.251 (#6)||0.616 (#7)|
|Road||4.8 (#6)||0.254 (#6||0.626 (#7)|
|Home||5.4 (#11)||0.248 (#6)||0.607 (#8)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Xander Bogaerts who is projected to be the #1 shortstop. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Xander Bogaerts||100||1||--||Francisco Lindor|
|Rafael Devers||100||6||Josh Donaldson||Kris Bryant|
|J.D. Martinez||99||10||Yulieski Gurriel||Josh Bell|
|Kevin Pillar||61||25||Giancarlo Stanton||Danny Santana|
|Andrew Benintendi||94||38||Ryan Braun||Shin-Soo Choo|
|Michael Chavis||47||23||Khris Davis||Yonder Alonso|
|Jose Peraza||19||18||Jonathan Villar||Ryan McMahon|
|Alex Verdugo||42||65||Tyler O'Neill||Franmil Reyes|
|Mitch Moreland||18||29||Ji-Man Choi||Miguel Cabrera|
|Jackie Bradley||25||80||Manuel Margot||Victor Robles|