SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
There are 4 teams who have 25/1, 3.8% odds to win the World Series. Their 1.6% chance is #14 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the AL 4.7% of the time and are not a good value at 12/1, 7.7%. The Red Sox are averaging 88.8 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 87.5 games. At -600 the Red Sox are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 43.1% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 10/1, 9.1%. They win the division in 10.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Oddsmakers expected them to win 94 based on their money line game odds. Their 84-78 record last season was very disappointing. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-2319) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 68-94 (-4111 loss). They went over 91 times and came in under 67 times. Based on computer simulations they only have a 47% chance to beat the Blue Jays in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 TOR||47%||11-8, -200||12-6-1|
|3/27 TOR||58%||11-8, -200||12-6-1|
|3/28 TOR||60%||11-8, -200||12-6-1|
|3/29 TOR||54%||11-8, -200||12-6-1|
|3/30 BAL||64%||12-7, -236||8-10-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Since last season their average run differential is +0.44 which ranks #7 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #7 ranked team among home teams.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 162 Games||5.6 (#3)||0.269 (#2)||0.646 (#4)|
|Road||5.5 (#3)||0.261 (#5)||0.612 (#7)|
|Home||5.6 (#3)||0.278 (#1)||0.684 (#1)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||5.1 (#7)||0.251 (#6)||0.616 (#7)|
|Road||4.8 (#6)||0.254 (#6||0.626 (#7)|
|Home||5.4 (#11)||0.248 (#6)||0.607 (#8)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Xander Bogaerts who is projected to be the #1 shortstop. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Xander Bogaerts||100||1||--||Francisco Lindor|
|Rafael Devers||100||5||Jose Ramirez||Josh Donaldson|
|J.D. Martinez||99||10||Yulieski Gurriel||Josh Bell|
|Kevin Pillar||61||19||Marcell Ozuna||Mike Tauchman|
|Andrew Benintendi||94||34||Joc Pederson||Byron Buxton|
|Michael Chavis||47||22||Khris Davis||Luke Voit|
|Jose Peraza||19||18||Jonathan Villar||Ryan McMahon|
|Mitch Moreland||18||27||Nick Solak||Ji-Man Choi|
|Alex Verdugo||42||77||Teoscar Hernandez||Stephen Piscotty|
|Jackie Bradley||25||79||Stephen Piscotty||Austin Hays|