MLB Outlook for the Boston Red Sox in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 25/1, 3.8% odds to win the World Series. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1% chance is #18 in the league. In simulations, they win the AL 2.5% of the time and are not a good value at 12/1, 7.7%. The Red Sox are averaging 87.1 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 87.5 wins. At -600 the Red Sox are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 32.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 10/1, 9.1%. They win the division in 7.1% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AL.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 84-78 record last season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 94-68. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -2319 units. They were not good against the spread going 68-94 (-4111 loss). They went over 91 times and came in under 67 times. Their next game vs the Blue Jays should be close. The Red Sox are winning 49 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 TOR49%11-8, -20012-6-1
3/27 TOR56%11-8, -20012-6-1
3/28 TOR56%11-8, -20012-6-1
3/29 TOR52%11-8, -20012-6-1
3/30 BAL60%12-7, -2368-10-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Since last season their average run differential is +0.44 which ranks #7 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #7 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games5.6 (#3)0.269 (#2)0.646 (#4)
Road5.5 (#3)0.261 (#5)0.612 (#7)
Home5.6 (#3)0.278 (#1)0.684 (#1)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All5.1 (#7)0.251 (#6)0.616 (#7)
Road4.8 (#6)0.254 (#60.626 (#7)
Home5.4 (#11)0.248 (#6)0.607 (#8)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Xander Bogaerts who is projected to be the #1 shortstop. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Xander Bogaerts1001--Francisco Lindor
Rafael Devers1006Josh DonaldsonKris Bryant
J.D. Martinez9910Yulieski GurrielJosh Bell
Kevin Pillar6125Giancarlo StantonDanny Santana
Andrew Benintendi9438Ryan BraunShin-Soo Choo
Michael Chavis4723Khris DavisYonder Alonso
Jose Peraza1918Jonathan VillarRyan McMahon
Alex Verdugo4265Tyler O'NeillFranmil Reyes
Mitch Moreland1829Ji-Man ChoiMiguel Cabrera
Jackie Bradley2580Manuel MargotVictor Robles