MLB Outlook for the Boston Red Sox in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 25/1, 3.8% odds to win the World Series. Their 1.6% chance is #14 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the AL 4.7% of the time and are not a good value at 12/1, 7.7%. The Red Sox are averaging 88.8 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 87.5 games. At -600 the Red Sox are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 43.1% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 10/1, 9.1%. They win the division in 10.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Oddsmakers expected them to win 94 based on their money line game odds. Their 84-78 record last season was very disappointing. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-2319) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 68-94 (-4111 loss). They went over 91 times and came in under 67 times. Based on computer simulations they only have a 47% chance to beat the Blue Jays in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 TOR47%11-8, -20012-6-1
3/27 TOR58%11-8, -20012-6-1
3/28 TOR60%11-8, -20012-6-1
3/29 TOR54%11-8, -20012-6-1
3/30 BAL64%12-7, -2368-10-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Since last season their average run differential is +0.44 which ranks #7 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #7 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games5.6 (#3)0.269 (#2)0.646 (#4)
Road5.5 (#3)0.261 (#5)0.612 (#7)
Home5.6 (#3)0.278 (#1)0.684 (#1)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All5.1 (#7)0.251 (#6)0.616 (#7)
Road4.8 (#6)0.254 (#60.626 (#7)
Home5.4 (#11)0.248 (#6)0.607 (#8)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Xander Bogaerts who is projected to be the #1 shortstop. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Xander Bogaerts1001--Francisco Lindor
Rafael Devers1005Jose RamirezJosh Donaldson
J.D. Martinez9910Yulieski GurrielJosh Bell
Kevin Pillar6119Marcell OzunaMike Tauchman
Andrew Benintendi9434Joc PedersonByron Buxton
Michael Chavis4722Khris DavisLuke Voit
Jose Peraza1918Jonathan VillarRyan McMahon
Mitch Moreland1827Nick SolakJi-Man Choi
Alex Verdugo4277Teoscar HernandezStephen Piscotty
Jackie Bradley2579Stephen PiscottyAustin Hays