MLB Outlook for the Boston Red Sox in 2020

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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 12/1, 7.7% (#5). If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Red Sox would be a good betting value. Their 7.6% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #3 in the league. In simulations, they win the AL 14.4% of the time and are not a good value at 5/1, 16.7%. The Red Sox are averaging 96.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 93.5 games. At -600 the Red Sox are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 73.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 6/5, 45.5%. They win the division in 39% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 84-78 record last season was very disappointing. Their expected win percentage was 58%. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -2319 units. They were not good against the spread going 68-94 (-4111 loss). They went over 91 times and came in under 67 times.

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Since last season their average run differential is +0.44 which ranks #7 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #7 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games5.6 (#3)0.269 (#2)0.646 (#4)
Road5.5 (#3)0.261 (#5)0.612 (#7)
Home5.6 (#3)0.278 (#1)0.684 (#1)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All5.1 (#7)0.251 (#6)0.616 (#7)
Road4.8 (#6)0.254 (#60.626 (#7)
Home5.4 (#11)0.248 (#6)0.607 (#8)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Mookie Betts who is projected to be the #2 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Mookie Betts992Christian YelichMike Trout
Xander Bogaerts1001--Francisco Lindor
Rafael Devers1005Jose RamirezKris Bryant
J.D. Martinez997Edwin EncarnacionPete Alonso
Andrew Benintendi9426Rhys HoskinsMitch Haniger
Michael Chavis4716Evan LongoriaTommy La Stella
Mitch Moreland1826Ji-Man ChoiRowdy Tellez
Jackie Bradley2563Jesse WinkerAustin Hays
Dustin Pedroia229Niko GoodrumBrian Dozier
Steve Pearce144Ronald GuzmanChris Davis