MLB Outlook for the Chicago Cubs in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their championship odds are 30/1, 3.2% (#14 best). Their simulation based win percentage (2.8%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the NL at 15/1, 6.2%. Their sim chance is 6.8%. The Cubs are averaging 86.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 84.5 games. At -110 the Cubs are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 49.7% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 3/1, 25%. They win the division in 33.9% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 54% of their games last season so their 84-78 met expectations. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1337 units. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-1148 loss). They went over 76 times and came in under 78 times. Based on computer simulations they only have a 44% chance to beat the Brewers in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 MIL44%9-10, -2966-12-1
3/28 MIL50%9-10, -2966-12-1
3/29 MIL57%9-10, -2966-12-1
3/30 PIT70%11-8, -17811-8
3/31 PIT60%11-8, -17811-8

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be better. Since last season their average run differential is +0.6 which ranks #4 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #8. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #9 in road games.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games5.0 (#5)0.252 (#7)0.633 (#4)
Road4.8 (#7)0.243 (#9)0.608 (#8)
Home5.2 (#5)0.262 (#4)0.660 (#4)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.4 (#5)0.251 (#9)0.574 (#3)
Road5.0 (#11)0.263 (#130.613 (#7)
Home3.9 (#3)0.239 (#6)0.535 (#1)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Anthony Rizzo who is projected to be the #5 first baseman / DH. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Anthony Rizzo985Yordan AlvarezJorge Soler
Javier Baez863Francisco LindorGleyber Torres
Kris Bryant967Rafael DeversYoan Moncada
Kyle Schwarber9032Michael ConfortoByron Buxton
Willson Contreras954Jacob RealmutoWill Smith
Steven Souza277Christin StewartAustin Hays
Ian Happ1691Shogo AkiyamaJ.T. Riddle
Jason Heyward5493J.T. RiddleThomas Milone
Nico Hoerner2431J.P. CrawfordZach McKinstry
Jason Kipnis2632Josh HarrisonAdam Frazier