SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their championship odds are 30/1, 3.2% (#14 best). Their simulation based win percentage (2.8%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the NL at 15/1, 6.2%. Their sim chance is 6.8%. The Cubs are averaging 86.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 84.5 games. At -110 the Cubs are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 49.7% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 3/1, 25%. They win the division in 33.9% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NL.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
They were expected to win 54% of their games last season so their 84-78 met expectations. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1337 units. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-1148 loss). They went over 76 times and came in under 78 times. Based on computer simulations they only have a 44% chance to beat the Brewers in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 MIL||44%||9-10, -296||6-12-1|
|3/28 MIL||50%||9-10, -296||6-12-1|
|3/29 MIL||57%||9-10, -296||6-12-1|
|3/30 PIT||70%||11-8, -178||11-8|
|3/31 PIT||60%||11-8, -178||11-8|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be better. Since last season their average run differential is +0.6 which ranks #4 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #8. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #9 in road games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 162 Games||5.0 (#5)||0.252 (#7)||0.633 (#4)|
|Road||4.8 (#7)||0.243 (#9)||0.608 (#8)|
|Home||5.2 (#5)||0.262 (#4)||0.660 (#4)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.4 (#5)||0.251 (#9)||0.574 (#3)|
|Road||5.0 (#11)||0.263 (#13||0.613 (#7)|
|Home||3.9 (#3)||0.239 (#6)||0.535 (#1)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Anthony Rizzo who is projected to be the #5 first baseman / DH. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Anthony Rizzo||98||5||Yordan Alvarez||Jorge Soler|
|Javier Baez||86||3||Francisco Lindor||Gleyber Torres|
|Kris Bryant||96||7||Rafael Devers||Yoan Moncada|
|Kyle Schwarber||90||32||Michael Conforto||Byron Buxton|
|Willson Contreras||95||4||Jacob Realmuto||Will Smith|
|Steven Souza||2||77||Christin Stewart||Austin Hays|
|Ian Happ||16||91||Shogo Akiyama||J.T. Riddle|
|Jason Heyward||54||93||J.T. Riddle||Thomas Milone|
|Nico Hoerner||24||31||J.P. Crawford||Zach McKinstry|
|Jason Kipnis||26||32||Josh Harrison||Adam Frazier|