MLB Outlook for the Cincinnati Reds in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 3 teams who have 30/1, 3.2% odds to win the World Series. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.2% chance is #16 in the league. In simulations, they win the NL 3.3% of the time and are not a good value at 15/1, 6.2%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 83.5 games. The Reds are averaging 82.5 wins per sim. At +425 the Reds are a good value to make the playoffs with a 30.8% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 3/1, 25%. They win the division in 18.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 49% of their games last season so their 75-87 met expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1364) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 83-79 (-670 loss). More of their games came in under (92) than went over (60). They are favored in their upcoming game vs the St Louis Cardinals. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 STL55%7-12, -5296-10-3
3/28 STL56%7-12, -5296-10-3
3/29 STL51%7-12, -5296-10-3
3/30 TOR57%0-0, 00-0
3/31 TOR49%0-0, 00-0

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be better. Since last season their average run differential is -0.06 which ranks #9 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #10 in home games.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games4.3 (#12)0.244 (#11)0.606 (#11)
Road4.3 (#13)0.236 (#14)0.581 (#13)
Home4.3 (#12)0.252 (#8)0.634 (#8)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.4 (#4)0.236 (#2)0.596 (#5)
Road4.2 (#2)0.238 (#30.592 (#3)
Home4.5 (#5)0.234 (#4)0.599 (#9)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Eugenio Suarez who is projected to be the #9 third baseman. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Eugenio Suarez999Yoan MoncadaMatt Chapman
Nick Castellanos9913Bryce HarperMax Kepler
Aristides Aquino9120Austin MeadowsMarcell Ozuna
Mike Moustakas9818Brian AndersonMiguel Sano
Joey Votto8317Matt OlsonEric Hosmer
Nick Senzel5751Kole CalhounHunter Renfroe
Jesse Winker2955Gregory PolancoBrian Goodwin
Shogo Akiyama090Wil MyersIan Happ
Freddy Galvis3325Willy AdamesAlex De Goti
Nick Martini199Domingo SantanaMitch Haniger