SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
There are 3 teams who have 30/1, 3.2% odds to win the World Series. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.2% chance is #16 in the league. In simulations, they win the NL 3.3% of the time and are not a good value at 15/1, 6.2%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 83.5 games. The Reds are averaging 82.5 wins per sim. At +425 the Reds are a good value to make the playoffs with a 30.8% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 3/1, 25%. They win the division in 18.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NL.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
They were expected to win 49% of their games last season so their 75-87 met expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1364) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 83-79 (-670 loss). More of their games came in under (92) than went over (60). They are favored in their upcoming game vs the St Louis Cardinals. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 STL||55%||7-12, -529||6-10-3|
|3/28 STL||56%||7-12, -529||6-10-3|
|3/29 STL||51%||7-12, -529||6-10-3|
|3/30 TOR||57%||0-0, 0||0-0|
|3/31 TOR||49%||0-0, 0||0-0|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be better. Since last season their average run differential is -0.06 which ranks #9 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #10 in home games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 162 Games||4.3 (#12)||0.244 (#11)||0.606 (#11)|
|Road||4.3 (#13)||0.236 (#14)||0.581 (#13)|
|Home||4.3 (#12)||0.252 (#8)||0.634 (#8)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.4 (#4)||0.236 (#2)||0.596 (#5)|
|Road||4.2 (#2)||0.238 (#3||0.592 (#3)|
|Home||4.5 (#5)||0.234 (#4)||0.599 (#9)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Eugenio Suarez who is projected to be the #9 third baseman. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Eugenio Suarez||99||9||Yoan Moncada||Matt Chapman|
|Nick Castellanos||99||13||Bryce Harper||Max Kepler|
|Aristides Aquino||91||20||Austin Meadows||Marcell Ozuna|
|Mike Moustakas||98||18||Brian Anderson||Miguel Sano|
|Joey Votto||83||17||Matt Olson||Eric Hosmer|
|Nick Senzel||57||51||Kole Calhoun||Hunter Renfroe|
|Jesse Winker||29||55||Gregory Polanco||Brian Goodwin|
|Shogo Akiyama||0||90||Wil Myers||Ian Happ|
|Freddy Galvis||33||25||Willy Adames||Alex De Goti|
|Nick Martini||1||99||Domingo Santana||Mitch Haniger|