SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 100/1, 1% (#22). They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. In simulations, they win the NL 0.2% of the time and are not a good value at 50/1, 2%. The Rockies are averaging 72.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 74.5 wins. At +190 the Rockies are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 3.8% chance. They have less than 1% chance to win the division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NL.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
They were expected to win 46% of their games last season so their 71-91 met expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1395) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 73-89 (-2542 loss). They went over 78 times and came in under 77 times. Their next game vs the Padres should be close. The Rockies are winning 50 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 SD||50%||11-8, +262||13-6|
|3/27 SD||45%||11-8, +262||13-6|
|3/28 SD||47%||11-8, +262||13-6|
|3/29 SD||45%||11-8, +262||13-6|
|3/30 LAD||25%||4-15, -736||10-8-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is -0.75 which ranks #13 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #12. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #14 in road games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 162 Games||5.1 (#4)||0.267 (#1)||0.631 (#5)|
|Road||4.1 (#14)||0.232 (#15)||0.560 (#14)|
|Home||6.2 (#1)||0.300 (#1)||0.698 (#1)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||5.9 (#15)||0.278 (#15)||0.681 (#15)|
|Road||5.1 (#13)||0.258 (#9||0.654 (#14)|
|Home||6.7 (#15)||0.295 (#15)||0.705 (#15)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Nolan Arenado who is projected to be the #3 third baseman. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Nolan Arenado||99||3||Alex Bregman||Jose Ramirez|
|Charlie Blackmon||100||6||Cody Bellinger||Juan Soto|
|Trevor Story||100||7||Jorge Polanco||Fernando Tatis Jr.|
|David Dahl||71||34||Byron Buxton||Lourdes Gurriel|
|Daniel Murphy||85||20||Justin Smoak||Luke Voit|
|Ryan McMahon||70||19||Jose Peraza||Hanser Alberto|
|Ian Desmond||36||67||Franmil Reyes||Jorge Ona|
|Josh Fuentes||0||51||Greg Bird||Jared Walsh|
|Sam Hilliard||10||139||Robbie Grossman||Jake Bauers|
|Garrett Hampson||33||47||Franklin Barreto||Wilmer Flores|