MLB Outlook for the Houston Astros in 2020

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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 8/1, 11.1% (#3). If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Astros would be a good betting value. Their 10.9% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #3 in the league. They are a good bet to win the AL at 7/2, 22.2%. Their sim chance is 23.6%. The Astros are averaging 97.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 94.5 games. At -1400 the Astros are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 85% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 2/5, 71.4%. They win the division in 67.1% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 64% of their games last season so their 107-55 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -246 on them. They were not good against the spread going 89-73 (-226 loss). More of their games came in under (86) than went over (73). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Los Angeles Angels. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 LAA69%14-5, +12011-7-1
3/27 LAA62%14-5, +12011-7-1
3/28 LAA63%14-5, +12011-7-1
3/29 LAA63%14-5, +12011-7-1
3/30 OAK54%11-8, -1538-11

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Since last season their average run differential is +1.55 which ranks #1 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 180 Games5.5 (#4)0.270 (#1)0.652 (#3)
Road5.2 (#5)0.262 (#4)0.631 (#4)
Home5.8 (#1)0.278 (#2)0.674 (#2)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.0 (#1)0.222 (#1)0.576 (#3)
Road3.9 (#1)0.222 (#10.555 (#1)
Home4.1 (#5)0.222 (#2)0.599 (#6)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Alex Bregman who is projected to be the #2 third baseman. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Alex Bregman1002Anthony RendonNolan Arenado
George Springer1004Mookie BettsCody Bellinger
Jose Altuve1001--DJ LeMahieu
Yordan Alvarez974Jose AbreuAnthony Rizzo
Yulieski Gurriel989Pete AlonsoJ.D. Martinez
Michael Brantley9924Danny SantanaDavid Peralta
Carlos Correa939Fernando Tatis Jr.Adalberto Mondesi
Nick Tanielu028Jake LambRyon Healy
Josh Reddick2572Aristides AquinoChristin Stewart
Aledmys Diaz932Ryan O'HearnAlbert Pujols