SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
They are one of 3 teams with 30/1, 3.2% odds to win the World Series. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.7% chance is #13 in the league. In simulations, they win the AL 4.2% of the time and are not a good value at 15/1, 6.2%. The Angels are averaging 87.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 84.5 games. At +300 the Angels are a good value to make the playoffs with a 34.7% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 6/1, 14.3%. They win the division in 13% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Their 72-90 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 48%. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1625) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 79-83 (-837 loss). They went over 78 times and came in under 75 times. In their next game vs the Astros they are only winning 35% of the simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 HOU||35%||5-14, -525||11-7-1|
|3/27 HOU||36%||5-14, -525||11-7-1|
|3/28 HOU||36%||5-14, -525||11-7-1|
|3/29 HOU||36%||5-14, -525||11-7-1|
|3/31 TEX||60%||9-10, -267||7-12|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be slightly better. Since last season their average run differential is -0.61 which ranks #9 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #10. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #9 ranked team among home teams.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 162 Games||4.7 (#7)||0.247 (#10)||0.595 (#12)|
|Road||4.7 (#9)||0.248 (#9)||0.575 (#14)|
|Home||4.8 (#7)||0.247 (#10)||0.616 (#8)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||5.4 (#10)||0.254 (#7)||0.632 (#9)|
|Road||5.3 (#13)||0.258 (#7||0.629 (#8)|
|Home||5.4 (#9)||0.251 (#7)||0.637 (#11)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Mike Trout who is projected to be the #1 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Mike Trout||86||1||--||Christian Yelich|
|Anthony Rendon||100||1||--||Alex Bregman|
|Justin Upton||62||29||David Peralta||Mark Canha|
|Tommy La Stella||34||5||Whit Merrifield||Keston Hiura|
|Andrelton Simmons||34||15||Corey Seager||Paul DeJong|
|Brian Goodwin||15||56||Jesse Winker||Adam Eaton|
|Albert Pujols||28||34||Aledmys Diaz||Howie Kendrick|
|Thomas Milone||0||94||Jason Heyward||Brett Gardner|
|David Fletcher||56||33||Jedd Gyorko||Jeimer Candelario|
|Shohei Ohtani||77||46||Matt Adams||Patrick Wisdom|