MLB Outlook for the Los Angeles Angels in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They are one of 3 teams with 30/1, 3.2% odds to win the World Series. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.7% chance is #13 in the league. In simulations, they win the AL 4.2% of the time and are not a good value at 15/1, 6.2%. The Angels are averaging 87.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 84.5 games. At +300 the Angels are a good value to make the playoffs with a 34.7% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 6/1, 14.3%. They win the division in 13% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 72-90 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 48%. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1625) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 79-83 (-837 loss). They went over 78 times and came in under 75 times. In their next game vs the Astros they are only winning 35% of the simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 HOU35%5-14, -52511-7-1
3/27 HOU36%5-14, -52511-7-1
3/28 HOU36%5-14, -52511-7-1
3/29 HOU36%5-14, -52511-7-1
3/31 TEX60%9-10, -2677-12

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Since last season their average run differential is -0.61 which ranks #9 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #10. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #9 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games4.7 (#7)0.247 (#10)0.595 (#12)
Road4.7 (#9)0.248 (#9)0.575 (#14)
Home4.8 (#7)0.247 (#10)0.616 (#8)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All5.4 (#10)0.254 (#7)0.632 (#9)
Road5.3 (#13)0.258 (#70.629 (#8)
Home5.4 (#9)0.251 (#7)0.637 (#11)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Mike Trout who is projected to be the #1 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Mike Trout861--Christian Yelich
Anthony Rendon1001--Alex Bregman
Justin Upton6229David PeraltaMark Canha
Tommy La Stella345Whit MerrifieldKeston Hiura
Andrelton Simmons3415Corey SeagerPaul DeJong
Brian Goodwin1556Jesse WinkerAdam Eaton
Albert Pujols2834Aledmys DiazHowie Kendrick
Thomas Milone094Jason HeywardBrett Gardner
David Fletcher5633Jedd GyorkoJeimer Candelario
Shohei Ohtani7746Matt AdamsPatrick Wisdom