MLB Outlook for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their championship odds are 40/1, 2.4% (#17 best). Their simulation based win percentage (2%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the NL at 20/1, 4.8%. Their sim chance is 4.8%. The Brewers are averaging 83.6 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 82.5 games. At +150 the Brewers are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 36.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 4/1, 20%. They win the division in 22.8% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 53% of their games last season so their 89-74 met expectations. Against the money line they turned a +34 profit. They broke even against the money line. They were not good against the spread going 79-84 (-1603 loss). More of their games came in under (88) than went over (69). They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Chicago Cubs. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 CHC56%10-9, +876-12-1
3/28 CHC50%10-9, +876-12-1
3/29 CHC43%10-9, +876-12-1
3/30 STL54%9-10, -819-9-1
3/31 STL53%9-10, -819-9-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.01 which ranks #8 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. They are the #10 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #8 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 163 Games4.7 (#9)0.247 (#9)0.623 (#7)
Road4.7 (#9)0.241 (#11)0.599 (#11)
Home4.8 (#8)0.253 (#7)0.651 (#6)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.7 (#9)0.246 (#6)0.613 (#9)
Road4.9 (#8)0.264 (#140.631 (#10)
Home4.6 (#7)0.227 (#3)0.595 (#7)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Christian Yelich who is projected to be the #2 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Christian Yelich832Mike TroutMookie Betts
Keston Hiura796Tommy La StellaLuis Arraez
Ryan Braun7437Joc PedersonAndrew Benintendi
Justin Smoak3619Eric HosmerDaniel Murphy
Eric Sogard2813Rougned OdorKolten Wong
Avisail Garcia4062Alex GordonTrent Grisham
Ryon Healy1028Jake LambDawel Lugo
Lorenzo Cain7687Kevin KiermaierTrey Amburgey
Jedd Gyorko132Matt CarpenterDavid Fletcher
Josh Hader964Liam HendriksAroldis Chapman