SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their championship odds are 40/1, 2.4% (#17 best). Their simulation based win percentage (2%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the NL at 20/1, 4.8%. Their sim chance is 4.8%. The Brewers are averaging 83.6 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 82.5 games. At +150 the Brewers are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 36.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 4/1, 20%. They win the division in 22.8% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NL.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
They were expected to win 53% of their games last season so their 89-74 met expectations. Against the money line they turned a +34 profit. They broke even against the money line. They were not good against the spread going 79-84 (-1603 loss). More of their games came in under (88) than went over (69). They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Chicago Cubs. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 CHC||56%||10-9, +87||6-12-1|
|3/28 CHC||50%||10-9, +87||6-12-1|
|3/29 CHC||43%||10-9, +87||6-12-1|
|3/30 STL||54%||9-10, -81||9-9-1|
|3/31 STL||53%||9-10, -81||9-9-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.01 which ranks #8 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. They are the #10 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #8 ranked team among home teams.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 163 Games||4.7 (#9)||0.247 (#9)||0.623 (#7)|
|Road||4.7 (#9)||0.241 (#11)||0.599 (#11)|
|Home||4.8 (#8)||0.253 (#7)||0.651 (#6)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.7 (#9)||0.246 (#6)||0.613 (#9)|
|Road||4.9 (#8)||0.264 (#14||0.631 (#10)|
|Home||4.6 (#7)||0.227 (#3)||0.595 (#7)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Christian Yelich who is projected to be the #2 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Christian Yelich||83||2||Mike Trout||Mookie Betts|
|Keston Hiura||79||6||Tommy La Stella||Luis Arraez|
|Ryan Braun||74||37||Joc Pederson||Andrew Benintendi|
|Justin Smoak||36||19||Eric Hosmer||Daniel Murphy|
|Eric Sogard||28||13||Rougned Odor||Kolten Wong|
|Avisail Garcia||40||62||Alex Gordon||Trent Grisham|
|Ryon Healy||10||28||Jake Lamb||Dawel Lugo|
|Lorenzo Cain||76||87||Kevin Kiermaier||Trey Amburgey|
|Jedd Gyorko||1||32||Matt Carpenter||David Fletcher|
|Josh Hader||96||4||Liam Hendriks||Aroldis Chapman|