MLB Outlook for the Minnesota Twins in 2020

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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 20/1, 4.8% (#9). They win the championship in 6.1% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. They are also a good bet to win the AL at 9/1, 10%. Their sim chance is 14.3%. The Twins are averaging 94.9 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 90.5 games. At +210 the Twins are a good value to make the playoffs with a 77.2% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 10/11, 52.4%. They win the division in 64.5% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 101-61 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 90.4-71.6. They were very good against the money line (+1407). They went 90-72 against the spread (-88 loss). They went over 81 times and came in under 75 times. Based on computer simulations they only have a 46% chance to beat the Athletics in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 OAK46%3-4, -1722-5
3/27 OAK47%3-4, -1722-5
3/28 OAK44%3-4, -1722-5
3/29 OAK53%3-4, -1722-5
3/30 SEA57%5-2, +1646-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Since last season their average run differential is +1.02 which ranks #3 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #6 in home games.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 165 Games5.7 (#2)0.269 (#3)0.678 (#2)
Road6.1 (#2)0.274 (#1)0.699 (#2)
Home5.4 (#5)0.264 (#3)0.656 (#4)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.7 (#6)0.257 (#8)0.594 (#4)
Road4.6 (#5)0.252 (#50.612 (#5)
Home4.9 (#6)0.262 (#11)0.580 (#3)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Nelson Cruz who is projected to be the #1 first baseman / DH. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Nelson Cruz981--Anthony Rizzo
Josh Donaldson996Rafael DeversKris Bryant
Max Kepler9414Eloy JimenezAaron Judge
Jorge Polanco987Trevor StoryFernando Tatis Jr.
Eddie Rosario9922Michael ConfortoMike Tauchman
Byron Buxton4137Andrew McCutchenJeff McNeil
Miguel Sano7619Mike MoustakasVladimir Guerrero Jr.
Luis Arraez578Tommy La StellaOzzie Albies
Mitch Garver876Yasmani GrandalSalvador Perez
Marwin Gonzalez32103Dexter FowlerJorge Bonifacio