SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 16/1, 5.9% (#6). Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.5% chance is #14 in the league. In simulations, they win the NL 4.5% of the time and are not a good value at 7/1, 12.5%. The Mets are averaging 84 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 86.5 wins. At +170 the Mets are a good value to make the playoffs with a 38% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 13/4, 23.5%. They win the division in 19.4% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NL.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
They were expected to win 54% of their games last season so their 86-76 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -557 units. They were not good against the spread going 82-80 (-512 loss). They went over 80 times and came in under 71 times. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Washington Nationals. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 WAS||59%||12-7, +542||13-5-1|
|3/28 WAS||55%||12-7, +542||13-5-1|
|3/29 WAS||49%||12-7, +542||13-5-1|
|3/30 PHI||56%||7-12, -584||11-7-1|
|3/31 PHI||57%||7-12, -584||11-7-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.33 which ranks #7 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #6 ranked team among home teams.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 162 Games||4.9 (#7)||0.257 (#4)||0.652 (#1)|
|Road||5.1 (#5)||0.264 (#2)||0.687 (#1)|
|Home||4.7 (#9)||0.249 (#10)||0.623 (#9)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.5 (#6)||0.251 (#8)||0.601 (#6)|
|Road||4.9 (#9)||0.263 (#12||0.619 (#8)|
|Home||4.2 (#4)||0.239 (#5)||0.583 (#5)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Pete Alonso who is projected to be the #8 first baseman / DH. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Pete Alonso||100||8||Carlos Santana||Yulieski Gurriel|
|Michael Conforto||98||31||Mark Canha||Kyle Schwarber|
|Jeff McNeil||94||40||Shin-Soo Choo||Nomar Mazara|
|Brandon Nimmo||25||47||Anthony Santander||Andrew McCutchen|
|Robinson Cano||49||15||Kolten Wong||Cesar Hernandez|
|Jed Lowrie||8||22||Jurickson Profar||Gavin Lux|
|Amed Rosario||62||22||Kevin Newman||Dansby Swanson|
|Matt Adams||8||45||Ronald Guzman||Shohei Ohtani|
|Wilson Ramos||97||12||Robinson Chirinos||Travis d'Arnaud|
|Edwin Diaz||68||7||Ken Giles||Nick Anderson|