MLB Outlook for the New York Mets in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 16/1, 5.9% (#6). Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.5% chance is #14 in the league. In simulations, they win the NL 4.5% of the time and are not a good value at 7/1, 12.5%. The Mets are averaging 84 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 86.5 wins. At +170 the Mets are a good value to make the playoffs with a 38% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 13/4, 23.5%. They win the division in 19.4% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 54% of their games last season so their 86-76 met expectations. Against the money line they lost -557 units. They were not good against the spread going 82-80 (-512 loss). They went over 80 times and came in under 71 times. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Washington Nationals. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 WAS59%12-7, +54213-5-1
3/28 WAS55%12-7, +54213-5-1
3/29 WAS49%12-7, +54213-5-1
3/30 PHI56%7-12, -58411-7-1
3/31 PHI57%7-12, -58411-7-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.33 which ranks #7 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #6 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games4.9 (#7)0.257 (#4)0.652 (#1)
Road5.1 (#5)0.264 (#2)0.687 (#1)
Home4.7 (#9)0.249 (#10)0.623 (#9)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.5 (#6)0.251 (#8)0.601 (#6)
Road4.9 (#9)0.263 (#120.619 (#8)
Home4.2 (#4)0.239 (#5)0.583 (#5)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Pete Alonso who is projected to be the #8 first baseman / DH. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Pete Alonso1008Carlos SantanaYulieski Gurriel
Michael Conforto9831Mark CanhaKyle Schwarber
Jeff McNeil9440Shin-Soo ChooNomar Mazara
Brandon Nimmo2547Anthony SantanderAndrew McCutchen
Robinson Cano4915Kolten WongCesar Hernandez
Jed Lowrie822Jurickson ProfarGavin Lux
Amed Rosario6222Kevin NewmanDansby Swanson
Matt Adams845Ronald GuzmanShohei Ohtani
Wilson Ramos9712Robinson ChirinosTravis d'Arnaud
Edwin Diaz687Ken GilesNick Anderson