SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 50/1, 2% (#20). While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the World Series is under 0.1 percent. In simulations, they win the NL 0.2% of the time and are not a good value at 25/1, 3.8%. The Padres are averaging 74.4 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 82.5 wins. At +500 the Padres are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 5.5% chance. They have less than 1% chance to win the division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Oddsmakers expected them to win 78.9 based on their money line game odds. Their 70-92 record last season failed to meet expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-2315) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-2051 loss). They went over 74 times and came in under 78 times. Their next game vs the Rockies should be close. The Padres are winning 50 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 COL||50%||8-11, -420||13-6|
|3/27 COL||55%||8-11, -420||13-6|
|3/28 COL||53%||8-11, -420||13-6|
|3/29 COL||55%||8-11, -420||13-6|
|3/30 ATL||48%||2-5, -277||2-5|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be slightly better. Since last season their average run differential is -0.66 which ranks #12 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #13. They are the #12 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 162 Games||4.2 (#13)||0.237 (#15)||0.591 (#12)|
|Road||4.6 (#11)||0.247 (#8)||0.609 (#6)|
|Home||3.9 (#14)||0.227 (#15)||0.572 (#12)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.9 (#11)||0.251 (#10)||0.610 (#8)|
|Road||5.2 (#14)||0.261 (#10||0.624 (#9)|
|Home||4.5 (#5)||0.241 (#7)||0.597 (#8)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Fernando Tatis Jr. who is projected to be the #8 shortstop. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Fernando Tatis Jr.||70||8||Trevor Story||Carlos Correa|
|Manny Machado||99||14||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||Hunter Dozier|
|Thomas Pham||98||43||Bryan Reynolds||Oscar Mercado|
|Eric Hosmer||93||18||Joey Votto||Justin Smoak|
|Trent Grisham||29||63||Avisail Garcia||Tyler O'Neill|
|Jorge Ona||0||68||Ian Desmond||Derek Fisher|
|Jurickson Profar||64||21||Hanser Alberto||Jed Lowrie|
|Wil Myers||62||89||Trey Amburgey||Shogo Akiyama|
|Jason Vosler||0||37||Emmanuel Rivera||Abraham Toro-Hernandez|
|Brian Dozier||40||36||Enrique Hernandez||Isan Diaz|