MLB Outlook for the San Diego Padres in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 50/1, 2% (#20). While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the World Series is under 0.1 percent. In simulations, they win the NL 0.2% of the time and are not a good value at 25/1, 3.8%. The Padres are averaging 74.4 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 82.5 wins. At +500 the Padres are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 5.5% chance. They have less than 1% chance to win the division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Oddsmakers expected them to win 78.9 based on their money line game odds. Their 70-92 record last season failed to meet expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-2315) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-2051 loss). They went over 74 times and came in under 78 times. Their next game vs the Rockies should be close. The Padres are winning 50 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 COL50%8-11, -42013-6
3/27 COL55%8-11, -42013-6
3/28 COL53%8-11, -42013-6
3/29 COL55%8-11, -42013-6
3/30 ATL48%2-5, -2772-5

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Since last season their average run differential is -0.66 which ranks #12 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #13. They are the #12 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games4.2 (#13)0.237 (#15)0.591 (#12)
Road4.6 (#11)0.247 (#8)0.609 (#6)
Home3.9 (#14)0.227 (#15)0.572 (#12)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.9 (#11)0.251 (#10)0.610 (#8)
Road5.2 (#14)0.261 (#100.624 (#9)
Home4.5 (#5)0.241 (#7)0.597 (#8)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Fernando Tatis Jr. who is projected to be the #8 shortstop. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Fernando Tatis Jr.708Trevor StoryCarlos Correa
Manny Machado9914Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Hunter Dozier
Thomas Pham9843Bryan ReynoldsOscar Mercado
Eric Hosmer9318Joey VottoJustin Smoak
Trent Grisham2963Avisail GarciaTyler O'Neill
Jorge Ona068Ian DesmondDerek Fisher
Jurickson Profar6421Hanser AlbertoJed Lowrie
Wil Myers6289Trey AmburgeyShogo Akiyama
Jason Vosler037Emmanuel RiveraAbraham Toro-Hernandez
Brian Dozier4036Enrique HernandezIsan Diaz