MLB Outlook for the Seattle Mariners in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Mariners are not contenders to win the championship at 500/1, 0.2%. They are one of 2 teams with these odds (#26 in the league). They have no chance to win the championship. They are not a good value to win the AL either at 250/1, 0.4%. The Mariners are averaging 64.2 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 68.5 wins. At +2000 the Mariners are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 0.1% chance. They have less than 1% chance to win the division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 44% of their games last season so their 68-94 met expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1783) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good against the spread going 79-83 (-1511 loss). They went over 85 times and came in under 66 times. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Texas Rangers. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 TEX55%8-11, -31110-8-1
3/27 TEX46%8-11, -31110-8-1
3/28 TEX43%8-11, -31110-8-1
3/29 TEX46%8-11, -31110-8-1
3/30 MIN36%2-5, -2116-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is -0.83 which ranks #12 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #10 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #13 in road games.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games4.7 (#10)0.237 (#14)0.601 (#8)
Road4.8 (#7)0.239 (#12)0.606 (#8)
Home4.5 (#10)0.235 (#14)0.598 (#11)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All5.5 (#13)0.263 (#10)0.635 (#11)
Road5.6 (#15)0.272 (#140.679 (#15)
Home5.4 (#10)0.254 (#9)0.597 (#5)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Kyle Seager who is projected to be the #20 third baseman. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Kyle Seager6420Miguel SanoGiovanny Urshela
Daniel Vogelbach6426Neil WalkerNick Solak
Kyle Lewis3573Adam HaseleyJosh Reddick
Shedric Long1326Nick MadrigalDee Gordon
Evan White237Ryan ZimmermanChristian Walker
J.P. Crawford930Jose IglesiasNico Hoerner
Dee Gordon5427Shedric LongNicky Lopez
Mitch Haniger61100Nick MartiniVictor Reyes
Mallex Smith53103Ender InciarteHarrison Bader
Jake Fraley2107Daniel PalkaDexter Fowler