SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 14/1, 6.7% (#5). Their 2.1% chance is #11 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the NL 5.8% of the time and are not a good value at 6/1, 14.3%. The Cardinals are averaging 84.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 88.5 wins. At -110 the Cardinals are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 39% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 3/2, 40%. They win the division in 24.6% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NL.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Their 91-71 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was 53%. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +664. They were very good against the spread going 88-74 for (+312 profit). More of their games came in under (85) than went over (68). Based on computer simulations they only have a 45% chance to beat the Reds in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 CIN||45%||12-7, +276||6-10-3|
|3/28 CIN||44%||12-7, +276||6-10-3|
|3/29 CIN||49%||12-7, +276||6-10-3|
|3/30 MIL||46%||10-9, +27||9-9-1|
|3/31 MIL||47%||10-9, +27||9-9-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.57 which ranks #5 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #4. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #3 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #6 in road games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 171 Games||4.7 (#11)||0.243 (#12)||0.585 (#13)|
|Road||4.7 (#10)||0.241 (#10)||0.602 (#10)|
|Home||4.6 (#11)||0.245 (#12)||0.569 (#13)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.1 (#2)||0.239 (#3)||0.570 (#2)|
|Road||4.6 (#4)||0.252 (#6||0.597 (#4)|
|Home||3.6 (#2)||0.226 (#2)||0.543 (#3)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Tommy Edman who is projected to be the #16 third baseman. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Tommy Edman||55||16||Hunter Dozier||Brian Anderson|
|Paul Goldschmidt||99||14||Edwin Encarnacion||Miguel Andujar|
|Paul DeJong||92||16||Andrelton Simmons||Didi Gregorius|
|Kolten Wong||53||14||Eric Sogard||Robinson Cano|
|Tyler O'Neill||11||64||Trent Grisham||Alex Verdugo|
|Matt Carpenter||66||31||Matt Duffy||Jedd Gyorko|
|Harrison Bader||16||104||Mallex Smith||Jon Jay|
|Dexter Fowler||19||108||Jake Fraley||Jorge Bonifacio|
|Yadier Molina||86||10||Buster Posey||Robinson Chirinos|
|Brad Miller||3||42||Travis Shaw||Colin Moran|