SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their championship odds are 25/1, 3.8% (#10 best). Their simulation based win percentage (3.2%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the AL at 12/1, 7.7%. Their sim chance is 8.2%. The Rays are averaging 92.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 89.5 games. At +240 the Rays are a good value to make the playoffs with a 62.3% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 8/1, 11.1%. They win the division in 19.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 96-66 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-17) against the money line. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-1041 loss). They went over 78 times and came in under 75 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Pittsburgh Pirates. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 PIT||70%||0-0, 0||0-0|
|3/28 PIT||72%||0-0, 0||0-0|
|3/29 PIT||69%||0-0, 0||0-0|
|3/30 NYY||50%||7-12, -614||7-10-2|
|3/31 NYY||43%||7-12, -614||7-10-2|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.69 which ranks #6 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #7 in road games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 168 Games||4.7 (#9)||0.253 (#6)||0.622 (#6)|
|Road||4.8 (#6)||0.254 (#6)||0.618 (#6)|
|Home||4.6 (#9)||0.252 (#8)||0.627 (#7)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.0 (#2)||0.231 (#2)||0.569 (#2)|
|Road||4.3 (#3)||0.240 (#2||0.593 (#2)|
|Home||3.7 (#1)||0.221 (#1)||0.546 (#2)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Austin Meadows who is projected to be the #19 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Austin Meadows||98||19||Joey Gallo||Aristides Aquino|
|Brandon Lowe||43||11||Cavan Biggio||Rougned Odor|
|Hunter Renfroe||60||52||Nick Senzel||Mike Yastrzemski|
|Ji-Man Choi||10||28||Nick Solak||Mitch Moreland|
|Yandy Diaz||24||26||Rio Ruiz||Jake Lamb|
|Manuel Margot||16||79||Austin Hays||Jackie Bradley|
|Yoshitomo Tsutsugo||0||84||Teoscar Hernandez||Jose Martinez|
|Jose Martinez||24||85||Yoshitomo Tsutsugo||Kevin Kiermaier|
|Kevin Kiermaier||28||86||Jose Martinez||Lorenzo Cain|
|Joe Wendle||14||24||Gavin Lux||Nick Madrigal|