MLB Outlook for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020

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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their championship odds are 25/1, 3.8% (#10 best). They win the championship in 4.7% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. They are also a good bet to win the AL at 12/1, 7.7%. Their sim chance is 10%. The Rays are averaging 94.2 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 89.5 games. At +240 the Rays are a good value to make the playoffs with a 66.5% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 8/1, 11.1%. They win the division in 24.8% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 96-66 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-17) against the money line. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-1041 loss). They went over 78 times and came in under 75 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Pittsburgh Pirates. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 PIT67%0-0, 00-0
3/28 PIT68%0-0, 00-0
3/29 PIT70%0-0, 00-0
3/30 NYY57%7-12, -6147-10-2
3/31 NYY52%7-12, -6147-10-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.69 which ranks #6 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #7 in road games.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 168 Games4.7 (#9)0.253 (#6)0.622 (#6)
Road4.8 (#6)0.254 (#6)0.618 (#6)
Home4.6 (#9)0.252 (#8)0.627 (#7)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.0 (#2)0.231 (#2)0.569 (#2)
Road4.3 (#3)0.240 (#20.593 (#2)
Home3.7 (#1)0.221 (#1)0.546 (#2)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Austin Meadows who is projected to be the #16 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Austin Meadows9816Joey GalloMax Kepler
Brandon Lowe438Tommy La StellaOzzie Albies
Hunter Renfroe6048Anthony SantanderRyan Braun
Ji-Man Choi1025Luke VoitNick Solak
Yandy Diaz2426Rio RuizRyon Healy
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo079Austin HaysKevin Kiermaier
Kevin Kiermaier2880Yoshitomo TsutsugoDerek Fisher
Jose Martinez2482Derek FisherStephen Piscotty
Willy Adames2425Luis UriasDansby Swanson
Joe Wendle1425Jurickson ProfarShedric Long