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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their championship odds are 25/1, 3.8% (#10 best). They win the championship in 4.7% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. They are also a good bet to win the AL at 12/1, 7.7%. Their sim chance is 10%. The Rays are averaging 94.2 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 89.5 games. At +240 the Rays are a good value to make the playoffs with a 66.5% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 8/1, 11.1%. They win the division in 24.8% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 96-66 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-17) against the money line. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-1041 loss). They went over 78 times and came in under 75 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Pittsburgh Pirates. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 PIT||67%||0-0, 0||0-0|
|3/28 PIT||68%||0-0, 0||0-0|
|3/29 PIT||70%||0-0, 0||0-0|
|3/30 NYY||57%||7-12, -614||7-10-2|
|3/31 NYY||52%||7-12, -614||7-10-2|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.69 which ranks #6 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #7 in road games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 168 Games||4.7 (#9)||0.253 (#6)||0.622 (#6)|
|Road||4.8 (#6)||0.254 (#6)||0.618 (#6)|
|Home||4.6 (#9)||0.252 (#8)||0.627 (#7)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.0 (#2)||0.231 (#2)||0.569 (#2)|
|Road||4.3 (#3)||0.240 (#2||0.593 (#2)|
|Home||3.7 (#1)||0.221 (#1)||0.546 (#2)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Austin Meadows who is projected to be the #16 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Austin Meadows||98||16||Joey Gallo||Max Kepler|
|Brandon Lowe||43||8||Tommy La Stella||Ozzie Albies|
|Hunter Renfroe||60||48||Anthony Santander||Ryan Braun|
|Ji-Man Choi||10||25||Luke Voit||Nick Solak|
|Yandy Diaz||24||26||Rio Ruiz||Ryon Healy|
|Yoshitomo Tsutsugo||0||79||Austin Hays||Kevin Kiermaier|
|Kevin Kiermaier||28||80||Yoshitomo Tsutsugo||Derek Fisher|
|Jose Martinez||24||82||Derek Fisher||Stephen Piscotty|
|Willy Adames||24||25||Luis Urias||Dansby Swanson|
|Joe Wendle||14||25||Jurickson Profar||Shedric Long|