MLB Outlook for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their championship odds are 25/1, 3.8% (#10 best). Their simulation based win percentage (3.2%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the AL at 12/1, 7.7%. Their sim chance is 8.2%. The Rays are averaging 92.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 89.5 games. At +240 the Rays are a good value to make the playoffs with a 62.3% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 8/1, 11.1%. They win the division in 19.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 96-66 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-17) against the money line. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-1041 loss). They went over 78 times and came in under 75 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Pittsburgh Pirates. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 PIT70%0-0, 00-0
3/28 PIT72%0-0, 00-0
3/29 PIT69%0-0, 00-0
3/30 NYY50%7-12, -6147-10-2
3/31 NYY43%7-12, -6147-10-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.69 which ranks #6 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #7 in road games.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 168 Games4.7 (#9)0.253 (#6)0.622 (#6)
Road4.8 (#6)0.254 (#6)0.618 (#6)
Home4.6 (#9)0.252 (#8)0.627 (#7)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.0 (#2)0.231 (#2)0.569 (#2)
Road4.3 (#3)0.240 (#20.593 (#2)
Home3.7 (#1)0.221 (#1)0.546 (#2)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Austin Meadows who is projected to be the #19 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Austin Meadows9819Joey GalloAristides Aquino
Brandon Lowe4311Cavan BiggioRougned Odor
Hunter Renfroe6052Nick SenzelMike Yastrzemski
Ji-Man Choi1028Nick SolakMitch Moreland
Yandy Diaz2426Rio RuizJake Lamb
Manuel Margot1679Austin HaysJackie Bradley
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo084Teoscar HernandezJose Martinez
Jose Martinez2485Yoshitomo TsutsugoKevin Kiermaier
Kevin Kiermaier2886Jose MartinezLorenzo Cain
Joe Wendle1424Gavin LuxNick Madrigal