MLB Outlook for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2020

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 100/1, 1% (#22). They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. In simulations, they win the AL 0.2% of the time and are not a good value at 50/1, 2%. The Blue Jays are averaging 75.7 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 75.5 wins. At +1000 the Blue Jays are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 3.1% chance. They have less than 1% chance to win the division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 43% of their games last season so their 67-95 met expectations. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1262 units. They were not good against the spread going 80-82 (-236 loss). They went over 75 times and came in under 79 times. Their next game vs the Red Sox should be close. The Blue Jays are winning 51 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 BOS51%8-11, +18512-6-1
3/27 BOS44%8-11, +18512-6-1
3/28 BOS44%8-11, +18512-6-1
3/29 BOS48%8-11, +18512-6-1
3/30 CIN43%0-0, 00-0

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be better. Since last season their average run differential is -0.63 which ranks #10 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #12. They are the #8 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #10 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 162 Games4.5 (#12)0.237 (#15)0.620 (#7)
Road4.5 (#12)0.244 (#11)0.597 (#10)
Home4.4 (#11)0.230 (#15)0.647 (#5)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All5.1 (#7)0.260 (#9)0.645 (#13)
Road4.9 (#8)0.261 (#100.631 (#9)
Home5.3 (#8)0.258 (#10)0.658 (#13)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who is projected to be the #13 third baseman. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.9713Eduardo EscobarManny Machado
Lourdes Gurriel6935David DahlJoc Pederson
Cavan Biggio6910Ozzie AlbiesBrandon Lowe
Randal Grichuk5345Oscar MercadoAnthony Santander
Bo Bichette8319Nick AhmedElvis Andrus
Derek Fisher269Jorge OnaAlex Dickerson
Teoscar Hernandez1183Stephen PiscottyYoshitomo Tsutsugo
Ken Giles806Aroldis ChapmanEdwin Diaz
Joe Panik434Adam FrazierEnrique Hernandez
Brandon Drury339Abraham Toro-HernandezChristian Arroyo