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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 16/1, 5.9% (#6). If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Nationals would be a good betting value. Their 5.7% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #4 in the league. In simulations, they win the NL 11.4% of the time and are not a good value at 7/1, 12.5%. The Nationals are averaging 88.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 90.5 wins. At -105 the Nationals are a good value to make the playoffs with a 63% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 2/1, 33.3%. They win the division in 42.8% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NL.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
They were expected to win 56% of their games last season so their 94-69 met expectations. Against the money line they turned a +54 profit. They broke even against the money line. They were very good against the spread going 92-71 for (+736 profit). They went over 76 times and came in under 77 times. Based on computer simulations they only have a 48% chance to beat the Mets in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|3/26 NYM||48%||7-12, -507||13-5-1|
|3/28 NYM||43%||7-12, -507||13-5-1|
|3/29 NYM||49%||7-12, -507||13-5-1|
|3/30 MIA||57%||15-4, +291||9-9-1|
|3/31 MIA||58%||15-4, +291||9-9-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be slightly better. Since last season their average run differential is +0.93 which ranks #2 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #4 ranked team among home teams.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 179 Games||5.3 (#2)||0.263 (#3)||0.630 (#6)|
|Road||5.2 (#2)||0.255 (#3)||0.602 (#9)|
|Home||5.4 (#2)||0.271 (#2)||0.661 (#3)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.4 (#3)||0.242 (#4)||0.588 (#4)|
|Road||4.0 (#1)||0.229 (#1||0.549 (#2)|
|Home||4.7 (#11)||0.254 (#11)||0.627 (#11)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Juan Soto who is projected to be the #7 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Juan Soto||100||7||Charlie Blackmon||Trey Mancini|
|Starlin Castro||48||6||Tommy La Stella||Keston Hiura|
|Trea Turner||99||11||Adalberto Mondesi||Jean Segura|
|Asdrubal Cabrera||61||22||Giovanny Urshela||Evan Longoria|
|Adam Eaton||84||55||Ramon Laureano||Brian Goodwin|
|Victor Robles||90||82||Manuel Margot||Yoshitomo Tsutsugo|
|Howie Kendrick||35||34||Albert Pujols||Ryan Zimmerman|
|Ryan Zimmerman||9||35||Howie Kendrick||Evan White|
|Eric Thames||23||42||Brandon Belt||Chris Davis|
|Carter Kieboom||17||33||Jordy Mercer||Brandon Crawford|