MLB Outlook for the Washington Nationals in 2020

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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 16/1, 5.9% (#6). If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Nationals would be a good betting value. Their 5.3% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #5 in the league. In simulations, they win the NL 10.8% of the time and are not a good value at 7/1, 12.5%. The Nationals are averaging 88.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 90.5 wins. At -105 the Nationals are a good value to make the playoffs with a 58.6% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 2/1, 33.3%. They win the division in 38% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 56% of their games last season so their 94-69 met expectations. Against the money line they turned a +54 profit. They broke even against the money line. They were very good against the spread going 92-71 for (+736 profit). They went over 76 times and came in under 77 times. Based on computer simulations they only have a 41% chance to beat the Mets in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
3/26 NYM41%7-12, -50713-5-1
3/28 NYM45%7-12, -50713-5-1
3/29 NYM51%7-12, -50713-5-1
3/30 MIA60%15-4, +2919-9-1
3/31 MIA55%15-4, +2919-9-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Since last season their average run differential is +0.93 which ranks #2 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #4 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 179 Games5.3 (#2)0.263 (#3)0.630 (#6)
Road5.2 (#2)0.255 (#3)0.602 (#9)
Home5.4 (#2)0.271 (#2)0.661 (#3)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.4 (#3)0.242 (#4)0.588 (#4)
Road4.0 (#1)0.229 (#10.549 (#2)
Home4.7 (#11)0.254 (#11)0.627 (#11)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Juan Soto who is projected to be the #7 outfielder. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Juan Soto1007Charlie BlackmonTrey Mancini
Starlin Castro488Luis ArraezOzzie Albies
Trea Turner9911Adalberto MondesiTim Anderson
Asdrubal Cabrera6122Giovanny UrshelaEvan Longoria
Adam Eaton8457Brian GoodwinNick Markakis
Victor Robles9081Jackie BradleyStephen Piscotty
Howie Kendrick3535Albert PujolsRyan Zimmerman
Ryan Zimmerman936Howie KendrickEvan White
Eric Thames2342Brandon BeltMatt Davidson
Carter Kieboom1734Jordy MercerTyler Freeman