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SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
For the first time in months the Astros are not favored to win it all. Oddsmakers have the Astros as the favorite to win the World Series. They win the championship in 49% of simulations. They are also a good bet to win the AL at 5/8, 61.5%. Their sim chance is 100%. They were a -1400 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 80.5% at 1/8, 88.9%. They finished the regular season with the best record in the AL.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 104-58. At 107-55 they ahead of expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (-246 units). They are one of the best teams against the spread (89-73) for a +124 profit. Their under-over record is 86-73 with 3 pushes. Their 107-55 record this season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was 64%. Against the money line they lost -246 units. They were solid against the spread going 89-73 for (+124 profit). More of their games came in under (86) than went over (73). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Washington Nationals. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|10/23 WAS||69%||0-1, -100||1-0|
|10/25 WAS||45%||0-1, -100||1-0|
|10/26 WAS||52%||0-1, -100||1-0|
|10/27 WAS||55%||0-1, -100||1-0|
|10/29 WAS||69%||0-1, -100||1-0|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their average run differential is +1.61 which ranks #1 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 8 games is +0.62.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 174 Games||5.5 (#4)||0.270 (#1)||0.652 (#3)|
|Road||5.2 (#5)||0.260 (#5)||0.625 (#5)|
|Home||5.9 (#1)||0.280 (#1)||0.679 (#2)|
|Last 8 Games||4.0 (#1)||0.200 (#2)||0.642 (#2)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||3.9 (#1)||0.221 (#1)||0.572 (#3)|
|Road||4.0 (#1)||0.224 (#1||0.558 (#1)|
|Home||3.9 (#4)||0.219 (#1)||0.589 (#4)|
|Last 8 Games||3.4 (#1)||0.204 (#2)||0.644 (#2)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Alex Bregman who was the #1 third baseman. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Alex Bregman||100||1||--||Anthony Rendon|
|Yulieski Gurriel||98||8||Anthony Rizzo||Jose Abreu|
|Michael Brantley||99||10||Bryce Harper||George Springer|
|George Springer||100||11||Michael Brantley||Max Kepler|
|Jose Altuve||100||8||Jeff McNeil||Javier Baez|
|Yordan Alvarez||98||41||Ramon Laureano||Lorenzo Cain|
|Josh Reddick||26||48||Adam Jones||Eric Thames|
|Justin Verlander||97||1||--||Gerrit Cole|
|Gerrit Cole||97||2||Justin Verlander||Stephen Strasburg|
|Roberto Osuna||95||4||Kirby Yates||Aroldis Chapman|