MLB Outlook: Houston Astros No Longer World Series Favorites

We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team's past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team's performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

For the first time in months the Astros are not favored to win it all. Oddsmakers have the Astros as the favorite to win the World Series. They win the championship in 49% of simulations. They are also a good bet to win the AL at 5/8, 61.5%. Their sim chance is 100%. They were a -1400 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 80.5% at 1/8, 88.9%. They finished the regular season with the best record in the AL.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 104-58. At 107-55 they ahead of expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (-246 units). They are one of the best teams against the spread (89-73) for a +124 profit. Their under-over record is 86-73 with 3 pushes. Their 107-55 record this season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was 64%. Against the money line they lost -246 units. They were solid against the spread going 89-73 for (+124 profit). More of their games came in under (86) than went over (73). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Washington Nationals. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
10/23 WAS69%0-1, -1001-0
10/25 WAS45%0-1, -1001-0
10/26 WAS52%0-1, -1001-0
10/27 WAS55%0-1, -1001-0
10/29 WAS69%0-1, -1001-0

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their average run differential is +1.61 which ranks #1 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 8 games is +0.62.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 174 Games5.5 (#4)0.270 (#1)0.652 (#3)
Road5.2 (#5)0.260 (#5)0.625 (#5)
Home5.9 (#1)0.280 (#1)0.679 (#2)
Last 8 Games4.0 (#1)0.200 (#2)0.642 (#2)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All3.9 (#1)0.221 (#1)0.572 (#3)
Road4.0 (#1)0.224 (#10.558 (#1)
Home3.9 (#4)0.219 (#1)0.589 (#4)
Last 8 Games3.4 (#1)0.204 (#2)0.644 (#2)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Alex Bregman who was the #1 third baseman. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Alex Bregman1001--Anthony Rendon
Yulieski Gurriel988Anthony RizzoJose Abreu
Michael Brantley9910Bryce HarperGeorge Springer
George Springer10011Michael BrantleyMax Kepler
Jose Altuve1008Jeff McNeilJavier Baez
Yordan Alvarez9841Ramon LaureanoLorenzo Cain
Josh Reddick2648Adam JonesEric Thames
Justin Verlander971--Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole972Justin VerlanderStephen Strasburg
Roberto Osuna954Kirby YatesAroldis Chapman