MLB Picks: Bet on Cardinals to Upset Atlanta on the Road

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Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins

The odds and our simulations favor the Twins over the Angels, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is MIN 5.3 and LAA 4.8, and Minnesota is winning 58% of simulations. At -141 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Twins a 59 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Angels are 5-4 and they have the significant edge in profit at +23 to -67 units. The average moneyline for the Twins was +19 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Angels averaged 3.9 and the Twins 3.7 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Angels+1304.54.843%42%3.9 (5 Wins)
Minnesota Twins-1415.05.357%58%3.7 (4 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Yankees to win the game. The projected score is NYY 5.8 and BAL 4, with New York winning 74% of the time. At -254 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Yankees a 72 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Yankees have been dominating this matchup recently with a 16-9 record but the Yankees get the large edge in profit at +-184 to 407 units. In these games the Yankees averaged 6.3 runs per game and the Orioles 4.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Orioles+2313.84.030%26%4.2 (9 Wins)
New York Yankees-2545.25.870%74%6.3 (16 Wins)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks

The odds and our simulations favor the D-Backs over the Pirates. The projected score is ARI 4.4 and PIT 3.6, with Arizona winning 64% of the time. The moneyline for the D-Backs is -154 which translates to 61 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The D-Backs have been dominating this matchup recently with a 11-2 record and they have the large edge in profit at +778 to -815 units. The average moneyline for the D-Backs was -62 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the D-Backs averaged 6.8 runs per game and the Pirates 3.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates+1423.43.641%36%3.1 (2 Wins)
Arizona Diamondbacks-1544.14.459%64%6.8 (11 Wins)

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Blue Jays are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Blue Jays 5 and Giants 4.1, with Toronto winning 58% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 3 matchups the Giants are 2-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +71 to -85 units. In these games the Giants averaged 4.7 runs per game and the Blue Jays 4.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Blue Jays----5.0--58%4.3 (1 Win)
San Francisco Giants----4.1--42%4.7 (2 Wins)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Yankees are favored. The projected score is NYY 5.5 and BAL 3.9, and New York is winning 73% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Yankees have been dominating this matchup recently with a 16-9 record. The Yankees actually have the large edge in profit at +-184 to 407 units. In these games the Yankees averaged 6.3 runs per game and the Orioles 4.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Orioles----3.9--27%4.2 (9 Wins)
New York Yankees----5.5--73%6.3 (16 Wins)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Reds. The projected score is CIN 4.4 and CHC 4.3, with Cincinnati winning 54% of the time. At -118 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Reds a 54 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Reds to win. The Cubs have been dominating this matchup recently with a 24-15 record but both teams are down overall playing each other (Cubs -142 units, Reds -327 units). The Cubs were -168 favorites on average. In these games, the Cubs averaged 5.7 and the Reds 4.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Cubs+1094.44.347%46%5.7 (24 Wins)
Cincinnati Reds-1184.64.453%54%4.2 (15 Wins)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies

The simulations slightly favor the Brewers who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Brewers 5.1 and Phillies 4.4, and Milwaukee is winning 56% of simulations. At -122 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Phillies a 55 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons but the Brewers get the significant edge in profit at +-44 to 11 units. The average moneyline for the Brewers was -38 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Brewers averaged 7.5 and the Phillies 4.4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Brewers+1124.45.146%56%7.5 (4 Wins)
Philadelphia Phillies-1224.64.454%44%4.4 (4 Wins)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals

The odds and our simulations favor the Nationals over the Mets, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is WAS 5 and NYM 4.6, with Washington winning 58% of the time. The Nationals are -163 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Mets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 15-11 record. They have the large edge in units at +655 to -571. The average moneyline for the Nationals was -76 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Nationals averaged 5.5 runs per game and the Mets 4.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Mets+1503.64.639%42%4.7 (15 Wins)
Washington Nationals-1634.45.061%58%5.5 (11 Wins)

Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Red Sox to win the game. The projected score is BOS 5.2 and COL 4.6, and Boston is winning 61% of the sims. The Red Sox are -148 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Colorado won their lone matchup in recent seasons 5 to 4 as +215 underdogs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Colorado Rockies+1384.04.641%39%5.0 (1 Win)
Boston Red Sox-1484.55.259%61%4.0 (0 Wins)

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers

The current simulations favor the Astros, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Astros 6.9 and Tigers 2.8, with Houston winning 89% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Astros have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-1 record. They have the large edge in units at +200 to -365. The Astros were -274 favorites on average. In these games, the Astros averaged 5.9 and the Tigers 2.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Astros----6.9--89%5.9 (7 Wins)
Detroit Tigers----2.8--11%2.8 (1 Win)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Rays are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Rays 4.4 and Marlins 3.3, with Tampa Bay winning 62% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Rays are 6-5, but neither team is down overall. The Rays are +54 and the Marlins are +50 against each other. The average moneyline for the Rays was -91 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Rays averaged 4.2 and the Marlins 3.5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Rays----4.4--62%4.2 (6 Wins)
Miami Marlins----3.3--38%3.5 (5 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Braves. The projected score is ATL 4.4 and STL 4.3, with Atlanta winning 51% of the time. At -140 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Braves a 58 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Cardinals going 8-5 and they have the large edge in profit at +215 to -194 units. The average moneyline for the Cardinals was -67 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 6.5 and the Braves 4.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals+1304.54.343%49%6.5 (8 Wins)
Atlanta Braves-1405.04.457%51%4.8 (5 Wins)

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Rangers to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Rangers 6.2 and Royals 4.7, with Texas being given a 64% chance of winning. At -135 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Rangers a 57 percent chance of winning. People are betting more heavily on the Rangers based on how the moneyline is moving. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rangers going 11-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +535 to -649 units. The average moneyline for the Rangers was -46 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Rangers averaged 3.9 and the Royals 3.3 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Texas Rangers-1354.76.255%64%3.9 (11 Wins)
Kansas City Royals+1154.34.745%36%3.3 (4 Wins)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Dodgers to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is LAD 4.3 and SD 4.1, and Los Angeles is winning 56% of simulations. At -156 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Dodgers a 61 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Dodgers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 17-6 record and they have the large edge in profit at +340 to -705 units. In these games the Dodgers averaged 6 runs per game and the Padres 3.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Diego Padres+1353.74.141%44%3.2 (6 Wins)
Los Angeles Dodgers-1564.34.359%56%6.0 (17 Wins)