MLB Picks: Can Tigers Upset Houston Astros for a Second Time As <10 Percent Underdogs?

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Thursday, August 22, 2019

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is CHC 5 and SF 4, and Chicago is winning 66% of the sims. The moneyline for the Cubs is -171 which translates to 63 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 11 matchups the Cubs are 6-5. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Giants are at -69 and the Cubs are -175 against each other. In these games the Cubs averaged 4.9 runs per game and the Giants 3.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco Giants+1524.14.039%34%3.8 (5 Wins)
Chicago Cubs-1714.95.061%66%4.9 (6 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Rays to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Rays 6 and Orioles 3.4, with Tampa Bay winning 77% of the latest sims. The Rays are -231 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 70 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rays going 19-12. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Rays are at -92 and the Orioles are -233 against each other. The Rays were -153 favorites on average. In these games, the Rays averaged 5.9 and the Orioles 4.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Rays-2315.46.068%77%5.9 (19 Wins)
Baltimore Orioles+2004.23.432%23%4.8 (12 Wins)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

The Nationals are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Nationals 5.2 and Pirates 3.9, with Washington winning 64% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Nationals is -220 which translates to 69 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Nationals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-5 record. They have the large edge in units at +75 to -120. The Nationals were -151 favorites on average. In these games, the Nationals averaged 5.3 and the Pirates 2.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Nationals-2204.85.267%64%5.3 (8 Wins)
Pittsburgh Pirates+1893.73.933%36%2.8 (5 Wins)

Cleveland Indians vs New York Mets

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Indians are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Indians 4.5 and Mets 3.7, and Cleveland is winning 58% of simulations. The Mets are -144 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Mets are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. They have the large edge in units at +204 to -200 units. In these games the Mets averaged 6.5 runs per game and the Indians 2.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Indians+1294.04.543%58%2.5 (0 Wins)
New York Mets-1444.53.757%42%6.5 (2 Wins)

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Braves over the Marlins. The projected score is ATL 4.9 and MIA 3.3, with Atlanta winning 74% of the time. The Braves are -282 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 74 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Braves have been dominating this matchup recently with a 28-9 record and they have the large edge in profit at +741 to -1294 units. In these games the Braves averaged 5.4 runs per game and the Marlins 3.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Marlins+2364.03.329%26%3.1 (9 Wins)
Atlanta Braves-2825.54.971%74%5.4 (28 Wins)

Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Cardinals are favored. The projected score is STL 4.6 and COL 4.2, and St. Louis is winning 58% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Cardinals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 9-4 record and they have the large edge in profit at +335 to -553 units. The average moneyline for the Cardinals was -71 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Cardinals averaged 5 runs per game and the Rockies 4.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Colorado Rockies----4.2--42%4.5 (4 Wins)
St Louis Cardinals----4.6--58%5.0 (9 Wins)

Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the White Sox as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is CHW 5.2 and TEX 5.1, and Chicago is winning 52% of the sims. The moneyline for the Rangers is -116 which translates to 54 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 5 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. The Rangers actually have the large edge in profit at +-143 to 73 units. The Rangers were -136 favorites on average. In these games, the Rangers averaged 6.3 and the White Sox 4.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o11VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Texas Rangers-1165.65.152%48%6.3 (5 Wins)
Chicago White Sox+1015.45.248%52%4.8 (5 Wins)

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Astros over the Tigers. The projected score is HOU 6.2 and DET 2.4, and Houston is winning 92% of simulations. At -514 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Astros a 84 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Astros going 10-2. They have the large edge in units at +187 to -249 units. In these games the Astros averaged 5.3 runs per game and the Tigers 2.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Tigers+3963.02.419%8%2.7 (2 Wins)
Houston Astros-5145.56.281%92%5.3 (10 Wins)

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Athletics are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is OAK 5 and NYY 4.9, and Oakland is winning 53% of simulations. At -115 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Yankees a 53 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Athletics have been dominating this matchup recently with a 10-6 record and they have the large edge in profit at +585 to -655 units. The average moneyline for the Athletics was +98 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Athletics averaged 5.1 runs per game and the Yankees 4.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Yankees-1154.84.952%47%4.5 (6 Wins)
Oakland Athletics+1004.75.048%53%5.1 (10 Wins)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is LAD 4.7 and TOR 4.1, and Los Angeles is winning 60% of simulations. At -257 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Dodgers a 72 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Dodgers have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0 and they have the large edge in profit at +55 to -200 units. In these games the Dodgers averaged 9 runs per game and the Blue Jays 2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Blue Jays+2183.84.130%40%2.0 (0 Wins)
Los Angeles Dodgers-2575.24.770%60%9.0 (2 Wins)