MLB Picks: Computer Favors Underdog Oakland vs Bumgarner and Giants

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Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox

The Astros are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Astros 5.7 and White Sox 3.6, with Houston winning 73% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Astros is -303 which translates to 75 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Astros since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Astros going 9-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +128 to -442 units. The Astros were -287 favorites on average. In these games, the Astros averaged 6.2 and the White Sox 2.7 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Astros-3035.65.773%73%6.2 (9 Wins)
Chicago White Sox+2554.03.627%27%2.7 (2 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Yankees to win the game. The projected score is NYY 5.9 and BAL 4.3, and New York is winning 71% of simulations. The Yankees are -308 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 75 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Yankees have been dominating this matchup recently with a 27-9 record and they have the large edge in profit at +262 to -693 units. In these games the Yankees averaged 7 runs per game and the Orioles 4.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Orioles+2514.24.327%29%4.3 (9 Wins)
New York Yankees-3085.85.973%71%7.0 (27 Wins)

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Cubs. The projected score is Cubs 5.4 and Phillies 4.8, with Chicago winning 53% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Cubs is -129 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Cubs are up in this matchup recently going 6-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +91 to -148 units. The average moneyline for the Phillies was +52 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Cubs averaged 5 and the Phillies 3.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Cubs-1295.25.455%53%5.0 (6 Wins)
Philadelphia Phillies+1144.84.845%47%3.8 (4 Wins)

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals

The odds favor the Nationals, but the sims are solidly on the Nationals. The projected score is WAS 5 and CIN 4.1, with Washington winning 65% of the time. At -114 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Nationals a 53 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Nationals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 9-2 record and they have the large edge in profit at +409 to -615 units. In these games the Nationals averaged 5.4 runs per game and the Reds 4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Reds-1015.24.149%35%4.0 (2 Wins)
Washington Nationals-1145.35.051%65%5.4 (9 Wins)

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Rangers. The projected score is Rangers 4.8 and Blue Jays 4.5, with Texas winning 50% of the latest sims. At -139 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Rangers a 58 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 5 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. The Blue Jays actually have the large edge in profit at +-83 to 57 units. The average moneyline for the Rangers was +52 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Blue Jays averaged 5.8 runs per game and the Rangers 5.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Texas Rangers-1395.04.856%50%5.1 (5 Wins)
Toronto Blue Jays+1234.54.544%50%5.8 (5 Wins)

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Red Sox. The projected score is Red Sox 4.8 and Indians 4.4, and Boston is winning 52% of simulations. The moneyline for the Red Sox is -117 which translates to 54 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Red Sox based on how the moneyline is moving. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Indians going 7-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +367 to -344 units. The average moneyline for the Indians was +3 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Red Sox averaged 6.3 and the Indians 5.5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Red Sox-1174.34.852%52%6.3 (4 Wins)
Cleveland Indians+1024.24.448%48%5.5 (7 Wins)

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Tigers. The projected score is DET 4.8 and SEA 4.7, and Detroit is winning 54% of simulations. The Tigers are -160 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Mariners going 8-3 and they have the large edge in profit at +257 to -300 units. The Tigers were +127 underdogs on average. In these games, the Mariners averaged 5.2 and the Tigers 2.9 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Mariners+1434.24.740%46%5.2 (8 Wins)
Detroit Tigers-1604.84.860%54%2.9 (3 Wins)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Dodgers over the Marlins despite being on the road. The projected score is Dodgers 4.9 and Marlins 3.4, and Los Angeles is winning 67% of simulations. The Dodgers are -273 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 73 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Dodgers are 5-4 but the Dodgers get the large edge in profit at +-215 to 383 units. The Dodgers were -280 favorites on average. In these games, the Dodgers averaged 5 and the Marlins 3.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Dodgers-2734.74.971%67%5.0 (5 Wins)
Miami Marlins+2273.33.429%33%3.2 (4 Wins)

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves

The Braves are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is ATL 5 and NYM 4.7, with Atlanta winning 57% of the time. At -129 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Braves a 56 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Braves have been dominating this matchup recently with a 19-10 record and they have the large edge in profit at +943 to -928 units. In these games the Braves averaged 5 runs per game and the Mets 3.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Mets+1144.64.745%43%3.7 (10 Wins)
Atlanta Braves-1294.95.055%57%5.0 (19 Wins)

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox

The Astros are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Astros 5.4 and White Sox 3, with Houston being given a 77% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Astros is -331 which translates to 77 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Astros have been dominating this matchup recently with a 9-2 record and they have the large edge in profit at +128 to -442 units. The Astros were -287 favorites on average. In these games, the Astros averaged 6.2 and the White Sox 2.7 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Astros-3315.45.474%77%6.2 (9 Wins)
Chicago White Sox+2633.63.026%23%2.7 (2 Wins)

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Brewers are favored. The projected score is MIL 5 and MIN 4.9, and Milwaukee is winning 55% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Brewers going 6-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +356 to -416 units. The average moneyline for the Brewers was -60 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Brewers averaged 4.1 runs per game and the Twins 3.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Twins----4.9--45%3.2 (2 Wins)
Milwaukee Brewers----5.0--55%4.1 (6 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals

The Cardinals are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Cardinals 5.3 and Royals 4.7, and St. Louis is winning 55% of simulations. The moneyline for the Cardinals is -208 which translates to 68 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Cardinals since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Cardinals are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Cardinals are at -5 and the Royals are -20 against each other. The Royals were +156 underdogs on average. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 5.5 and the Royals 3.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals-2085.35.365%55%5.5 (5 Wins)
Kansas City Royals+1794.24.735%45%3.2 (3 Wins)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Rockies to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is COL 5.2 and ARI 5, and Colorado is winning 54% of simulations. At -128 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Rockies a 56 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Rockies have been dominating this matchup recently with a 19-14 record and they have the large edge in profit at +636 to -581 units. In these games the Rockies averaged 5.8 runs per game and the D-Backs 5.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o12VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Diamondbacks+1125.85.046%46%5.2 (14 Wins)
Colorado Rockies-1286.25.254%54%5.8 (19 Wins)

Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants

The simulations slightly favor the Athletics who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Athletics 3.8 and Giants 3, with Oakland winning 61% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Giants is -118 which translates to 54 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Athletics are up in this matchup recently going 6-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +166 to -222 units. The average moneyline for the Athletics was -6 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Giants averaged 5.2 runs per game and the Athletics 4.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oakland Athletics+1033.93.848%61%4.2 (6 Wins)
San Francisco Giants-1184.13.052%39%5.2 (4 Wins)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Angels. The projected score is LAA 4.9 and PIT 4.8, with Los Angeles winning 52% of the time. At -174 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Angels a 64 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Pittsburgh won their lone matchup in recent seasons 10 to 2 as +131 underdogs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates+1554.34.838%48%10.0 (1 Win)
Los Angeles Angels-1745.24.962%52%2.0 (0 Wins)

Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres

The odds favor the Rays, but the sims are solidly on the Rays. The projected score is Rays 4 and Padres 3.5, with Tampa Bay winning 55% of the latest sims. At -123 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Rays a 55 percent chance of winning. Bettors seem to be favoring the Rays since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. Tampa Bay won their lone matchup in recent seasons 10 to 4 as +106 underdogs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Rays-1234.14.053%55%10.0 (1 Win)
San Diego Padres+1083.93.547%45%4.0 (0 Wins)