MLB Picks: Computer Sees Value on Strasburg and Nationals at Phillies

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Friday, July 12, 2019

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is CHC 5.4 and PIT 4.6, with Chicago winning 63% of the time. At -159 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Cubs a 61 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 13 wins head-to-head in recent seasons but the Cubs get the large edge in profit at +-362 to 319 units. In these games the Cubs averaged 4 runs per game and the Pirates 3.9.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates+1384.74.641%37%3.9 (13 Wins)
Chicago Cubs-1595.35.459%63%4.0 (13 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Nationals to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Nationals 5.7 and Phillies 4.7, with Washington winning 60% of the latest sims. The Nationals are -142 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Nationals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 18-12 record. They have the large edge in units at +458 to -531. The average moneyline for the Phillies was +9 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Nationals averaged 5.6 and the Phillies 4.6 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Nationals-1425.05.757%60%5.6 (18 Wins)
Philadelphia Phillies+1234.54.743%40%4.6 (12 Wins)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Rays to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Rays 5.3 and Orioles 3.9, with Tampa Bay winning 64% of the latest sims. The Rays are -152 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Orioles since the moneyline is moving that way. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rays going 16-11 but both teams are down overall playing each other (Rays -126 units, Orioles -125 units). The Rays were -141 favorites on average. In these games, the Rays averaged 5.6 and the Orioles 5.1 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Rays-1525.05.358%64%5.6 (16 Wins)
Baltimore Orioles+1324.53.942%36%5.1 (11 Wins)

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

The Yankees are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is NYY 5.8 and TOR 4.5, with New York winning 68% of the time. The Yankees are -286 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 74 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Yankees going 17-8 and they have the large edge in profit at +70 to -451 units. In these games the Yankees averaged 5.9 runs per game and the Blue Jays 4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o11VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Blue Jays+2354.74.529%32%4.0 (8 Wins)
New York Yankees-2866.35.871%68%5.9 (17 Wins)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Red Sox are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is BOS 5 and LAD 4.9, and Boston is winning 55% of simulations. The moneylines for the game are Dodgers -107 and Red Sox -108. These lines, if you adjust for the juice, translates to 50% to 50%. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Red Sox going 4-1. They have the large edge in units at +313 to -340 units. The average moneyline for the Dodgers was -43 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Red Sox averaged 5.6 runs per game and the Dodgers 3.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Dodgers-1075.24.950%45%3.2 (1 Win)
Boston Red Sox-1085.35.050%55%5.6 (4 Wins)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians

The Indians are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is CLE 5.2 and MIN 4.8, and Cleveland is winning 59% of the sims. The Indians are -137 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Indians are 13-12 but the Indians get the large edge in profit at +-372 to 320 units. In these games the Indians averaged 4.4 runs per game and the Twins 3.9.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Twins+1194.34.844%41%3.9 (12 Wins)
Cleveland Indians-1374.75.256%59%4.4 (13 Wins)

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins

The odds favor the Marlins, but the sims are solidly on the Marlins. The projected score is MIA 4.1 and NYM 4, and Miami is winning 54% of simulations. At -114 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Marlins a 53 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Mets going 17-10. They have the large edge in units at +19 to -205. The Mets were -176 favorites on average. In these games, the Mets averaged 4.1 and the Marlins 3.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Mets-1023.94.049%46%4.1 (17 Wins)
Miami Marlins-1144.14.151%54%3.2 (10 Wins)

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Astros to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Astros 5.2 and Rangers 4.4, and Houston is winning 56% of simulations. The moneyline for the Astros is -204 which translates to 67 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Astros have been dominating this matchup recently with a 18-12 record but the Astros get the large edge in profit at +-314 to 677 units. The Rangers were +193 underdogs on average. In these games, the Astros averaged 4.8 and the Rangers 3.9 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Astros-2045.55.265%56%4.8 (18 Wins)
Texas Rangers+1744.54.435%44%3.9 (12 Wins)

San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Brewers to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is MIL 4.4 and SF 4.3, and Milwaukee is winning 56% of simulations. At -191 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Brewers a 66 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Brewers going 7-3 and they have the large edge in profit at +242 to -392 units. The average moneyline for the Brewers was -73 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Brewers averaged 5.1 runs per game and the Giants 3.9.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco Giants+1654.34.337%44%3.9 (3 Wins)
Milwaukee Brewers-1915.24.463%56%5.1 (7 Wins)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Royals are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is KC 5.6 and DET 4.9, with Kansas City winning 62% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 14 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Tigers are at -111 and the Royals are -76 against each other. The average moneyline for the Tigers was -43 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Royals averaged 4.5 runs per game and the Tigers 4.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Tigers----4.9--38%4.2 (14 Wins)
Kansas City Royals----5.6--62%4.5 (14 Wins)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St Louis Cardinals

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Cardinals. The projected score is STL 4.5 and ARI 4.4, and St. Louis is winning 52% of simulations. At -126 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Cardinals a 56 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 13 matchups the Cardinals are 7-6. They have the large edge in units at +124 to -109 units. The average moneyline for the Cardinals was +4 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. Both teams have averaged 3.6 runs in these games.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Diamondbacks+1094.14.446%48%3.6 (6 Wins)
St Louis Cardinals-1264.44.554%52%3.6 (7 Wins)

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Rockies. The projected score is COL 4.5 and CIN 4.4, and Colorado is winning 54% of the sims. At -124 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Rockies a 55 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Rockies have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-5 record. They have the large edge in units at +102 to -189 units. The average moneyline for the Rockies was -106 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Rockies averaged 6 runs per game and the Reds 5.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o12VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Reds+1075.94.447%46%5.4 (5 Wins)
Colorado Rockies-1246.14.553%54%6.0 (8 Wins)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Mariners as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Mariners 5.7 and Angels 5.2, with Seattle being given a 53% chance of winning. At -166 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Angels a 62 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Mariners have been dominating this matchup recently with a 19-13 record and they have the large edge in profit at +722 to -768 units. The average moneyline for the Angels was -69 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Angels averaged 5.3 runs per game and the Mariners 4.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Mariners+1454.45.740%53%4.8 (19 Wins)
Los Angeles Angels-1665.15.260%47%5.3 (13 Wins)

Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Athletics over the White Sox. The projected score is OAK 5.1 and CHW 3.5, and Oakland is winning 73% of the sims. At -190 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Athletics a 66 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Athletics have been dominating this matchup recently with a 10-3 record and they have the large edge in profit at +406 to -655 units. The average moneyline for the White Sox was +97 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Athletics averaged 6.8 runs per game and the White Sox 4.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago White Sox+1644.33.537%27%4.6 (3 Wins)
Oakland Athletics-1905.25.163%73%6.8 (10 Wins)

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres

The odds favor the Braves, but the sims are solidly on the Braves. The projected score is Braves 5 and Padres 4, with Atlanta winning 60% of the latest sims. At -112 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Braves a 53 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 11 matchups the Braves are 6-5. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Braves are at -106 and the Padres are -61 against each other. The average moneyline for the Padres was +68 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. Both teams have averaged 4 runs in these games.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Braves-1124.35.051%60%4.0 (6 Wins)
San Diego Padres-1044.24.049%40%4.0 (5 Wins)