MLB Picks: Cubs Projected for Another Upset Loss to Cardinals Costing Them a Playoff Spot

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Sunday, September 22, 2019

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Mariners are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Mariners 4.4 and Orioles 4, and Seattle is winning 53% of simulations. The moneyline for the Orioles is -124 which translates to 55 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Mariners have been dominating this matchup recently with a 10-3 record and they have the large edge in profit at +385 to -533 units. The average moneyline for the Orioles was +98 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Mariners averaged 5.5 and the Orioles 4.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Mariners+1094.64.446%53%5.5 (10 Wins)
Baltimore Orioles-1244.94.054%47%4.2 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Yankees to win the game. The projected score is NYY 6.4 and TOR 3.8, with New York winning 81% of the time. The Yankees are -320 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 76 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Yankees going 23-14 but both teams are down overall playing each other (Blue Jays -9 units, Yankees -293 units). In these games the Yankees averaged 5.6 runs per game and the Blue Jays 3.9.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Blue Jays+2613.93.827%19%3.9 (14 Wins)
New York Yankees-3205.66.473%81%5.6 (23 Wins)

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds

The odds favor the Mets, but the sims are solidly on the Mets. The projected score is Mets 4.7 and Reds 3.8, and New York is winning 59% of simulations. At -121 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Mets a 55 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 6 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. The Mets actually have the large edge in profit at +-192 to 143 units. The average moneyline for the Reds was +65 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Mets averaged 3.7 and the Reds 3.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Mets-1214.44.753%59%3.7 (6 Wins)
Cincinnati Reds+1064.13.847%41%3.2 (6 Wins)

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the White Sox are favored. The projected score is White Sox 4.7 and Tigers 3.7, and Chicago is winning 59% of simulations. The White Sox are -106 on the moneyline and the Tigers are -109. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the White Sox are 17-16 but both teams are down overall playing each other (White Sox -89 units, Tigers -31 units). The average moneyline for the White Sox was -50 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the White Sox averaged 5.2 and the Tigers 5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago White Sox-1064.44.750%59%5.2 (17 Wins)
Detroit Tigers-1094.63.750%41%5.0 (16 Wins)

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Nationals over the Marlins despite being on the road. The projected score is Nationals 5.5 and Marlins 4.1, with Washington being given a 65% chance of winning. At -214 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Nationals a 68 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Nationals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 28-9 record and they have the large edge in profit at +365 to -1253 units. The Nationals were -230 favorites on average. In these games, the Nationals averaged 6.3 and the Marlins 4.1 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Nationals-2145.05.566%65%6.3 (28 Wins)
Miami Marlins+1844.04.134%35%4.1 (9 Wins)

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Rays to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is TB 4.5 and BOS 4.1, and Tampa Bay is winning 58% of simulations. The moneyline for the Rays is -175 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Rays are up in this matchup recently going 19-17 and they have the large edge in profit at +424 to -720 units. The average moneyline for the Red Sox was -94 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Rays averaged 4.6 runs per game and the Red Sox 3.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Red Sox+1553.84.138%42%3.8 (17 Wins)
Tampa Bay Rays-1754.74.562%58%4.6 (19 Wins)

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Braves to win the game. The projected score is ATL 4.8 and SF 3.6, and Atlanta is winning 70% of simulations. At -216 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Braves a 68 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Braves have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-4 record and they have the large edge in profit at +138 to -314 units. In these games the Braves averaged 4.5 runs per game and the Giants 3.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco Giants+1864.23.634%30%3.2 (4 Wins)
Atlanta Braves-2165.34.866%70%4.5 (8 Wins)

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Astros over the Angels. The projected score is HOU 6.8 and LAA 3.2, and Houston is winning 87% of the sims. The moneyline for the Astros is -325 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Astros have been dominating this matchup recently with a 23-10 record and they have the large edge in profit at +303 to -689 units. In these games the Astros averaged 5.9 runs per game and the Angels 3.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Angels+2703.93.226%13%3.7 (10 Wins)
Houston Astros-3255.66.874%87%5.9 (23 Wins)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Brewers over the Pirates. The projected score is MIL 4.6 and PIT 3.4, and Milwaukee is winning 69% of simulations. The moneyline for the Brewers is -292 which translates to 74 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Brewers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 21-16 record but both teams are down overall playing each other (Pirates -306 units, Brewers -152 units). The average moneyline for the Pirates was +77 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Brewers averaged 5 runs per game and the Pirates 4.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates+2433.73.428%31%4.6 (16 Wins)
Milwaukee Brewers-2925.34.672%69%5.0 (21 Wins)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Twins to win the game. The projected score is MIN 6.1 and KC 5.3, and Minnesota is winning 61% of simulations. The Twins are -223 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 69 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Twins have been dominating this matchup recently with a 20-14 record but the Twins get the large edge in profit at +-301 to 21 units. In these games the Twins averaged 5.2 runs per game and the Royals 5.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Royals+1914.75.333%39%5.1 (14 Wins)
Minnesota Twins-2235.86.167%61%5.2 (20 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

The simulations slightly favor the Cardinals who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Cardinals 4.6 and Cubs 4.2, and St. Louis is winning 52% of simulations. At -146 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Cubs a 59 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Cardinals have the recent head-to-head edge going 18-16 and they have the large edge in profit at +213 to -528 units. The average moneyline for the Cubs was -72 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Cubs averaged 4.8 runs per game and the Cardinals 4.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals+1314.14.642%52%4.4 (18 Wins)
Chicago Cubs-1464.64.258%48%4.8 (16 Wins)

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics

The odds and our simulations favor the Athletics over the Rangers. The projected score is OAK 4.7 and TEX 4, and Oakland is winning 62% of the sims. The Athletics are -184 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Athletics have been dominating this matchup recently with a 26-11 record. They have the large edge in units at +584 to -1220 units. In these games the Athletics averaged 6.4 runs per game and the Rangers 4.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Texas Rangers+1633.64.037%38%4.6 (11 Wins)
Oakland Athletics-1844.44.763%62%6.4 (26 Wins)

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Dodgers to win the game. The projected score is LAD 6 and COL 3.8, and Los Angeles is winning 78% of simulations. The moneyline for the Dodgers is -376 which translates to 79 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Dodgers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 27-11 record and they have the large edge in profit at +449 to -960 units. In these games the Dodgers averaged 6.3 runs per game and the Rockies 4.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Colorado Rockies+3013.53.824%22%4.3 (11 Wins)
Los Angeles Dodgers-3765.56.076%78%6.3 (27 Wins)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the D-Backs. The projected score is D-Backs 4.2 and Padres 3.8, with Arizona being given a 53% chance of winning. The D-Backs are -112 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 53 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the D-Backs going 20-14. They have the large edge in units at +86 to -398. The average moneyline for the Padres was +79 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the D-Backs averaged 5.2 and the Padres 3.4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Diamondbacks-1124.34.251%53%5.2 (20 Wins)
San Diego Padres-1034.23.849%47%3.4 (14 Wins)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Indians

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Indians to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is CLE 5 and PHI 4.7, and Cleveland is winning 57% of the sims. The moneyline for the Indians is -138 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. The Indians actually have the significant edge in profit at +-51 to 38 units. In these games, the Phillies averaged 5.5 and the Indians 4.5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Phillies+1224.84.744%43%5.5 (1 Win)
Cleveland Indians-1385.25.056%57%4.5 (1 Win)