MLB Picks: Parlay Favored Dodgers and Kershaw vs Phillies with Red Sox at Home vs Blue Jays

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Monday, July 15, 2019

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Rockies to win the game. The projected score is COL 5.4 and SF 4.4, and Colorado is winning 66% of simulations. The moneyline for the Rockies is -154 which translates to 61 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rockies going 16-12. They have the large edge in units at +66 to -456 units. The average moneyline for the Giants was +35 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Rockies averaged 4.4 runs per game and the Giants 4.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco Giants+1324.54.442%34%4.1 (12 Wins)
Colorado Rockies-1545.05.458%66%4.4 (16 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Yankees. The projected score is NYY 4.8 and TB 4.7, with New York winning 53% of the time. The moneyline for the Yankees is -143 which translates to 59 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Yankees have been dominating this matchup recently with a 19-13 record and they have the large edge in profit at +128 to -94 units. In these games the Yankees averaged 5 runs per game and the Rays 3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Rays+1244.04.743%47%3.0 (13 Wins)
New York Yankees-1434.54.857%53%5.0 (19 Wins)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Dodgers over the Phillies despite being on the road. The projected score is Dodgers 6.1 and Phillies 4.2, with Los Angeles winning 69% of the latest sims. The Dodgers are -174 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 64 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Dodgers are up in this matchup recently going 6-4 but both teams are down overall playing each other (Dodgers -38 units, Phillies -61 units). The Dodgers were -140 favorites on average. In these games, the Dodgers averaged 4.7 and the Phillies 4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Dodgers-1745.16.161%69%4.7 (6 Wins)
Philadelphia Phillies+1504.44.239%31%4.0 (4 Wins)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Red Sox to win the game. The projected score is BOS 5.7 and TOR 4.5, and Boston is winning 68% of the sims. The moneyline for the Red Sox is -195 which translates to 66 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Red Sox going 22-9. They have the large edge in units at +377 to -746 units. In these games the Red Sox averaged 6 runs per game and the Blue Jays 4.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Blue Jays+1684.84.536%32%4.7 (9 Wins)
Boston Red Sox-1955.75.764%68%6.0 (22 Wins)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Indians to win the game. The projected score is CLE 5.5 and DET 3.8, and Cleveland is winning 74% of simulations. The moneyline for the Indians is -187 which translates to 65 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Indians have been dominating this matchup recently with a 21-7 record and they have the large edge in profit at +296 to -925 units. In these games the Indians averaged 6.1 runs per game and the Tigers 2.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Tigers+1614.63.837%26%2.4 (7 Wins)
Cleveland Indians-1875.45.563%74%6.1 (21 Wins)

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is CHC 4.7 and CIN 3.5, with Chicago winning 68% of the time. The Cubs are -138 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Cubs since the moneyline is moving that way. They both have 14 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. The Cubs actually have the large edge in profit at +-535 to 291 units. In these games the Cubs averaged 4.7 runs per game and the Reds 4.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Reds+1203.93.544%32%4.1 (14 Wins)
Chicago Cubs-1384.34.756%68%4.7 (14 Wins)

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers

The odds favor the Braves, but the sims are solidly on the Braves. The projected score is Braves 6.1 and Brewers 5.3, with Atlanta winning 55% of the latest sims. At -113 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Braves a 53 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 5 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Braves are at -86 and the Brewers are -71 against each other. In these games, the Braves averaged 5.2 and the Brewers 4.9 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Braves-1135.16.151%55%5.2 (5 Wins)
Milwaukee Brewers-1034.95.349%45%4.9 (5 Wins)

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the White Sox. The projected score is White Sox 4.8 and Royals 4.6, with Chicago winning 51% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the White Sox is -130 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The White Sox have been dominating this matchup recently with a 19-12 record. They have the large edge in units at +539 to -817. The average moneyline for the White Sox was -18 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the White Sox averaged 5 and the Royals 4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago White Sox-1304.44.855%51%5.0 (19 Wins)
Kansas City Royals+1124.14.645%49%4.0 (12 Wins)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is STL 4.8 and PIT 4.1, and St. Louis is winning 63% of simulations. At -144 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Cardinals a 59 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Cardinals going 14-11. They have the large edge in units at +84 to -98 units. The average moneyline for the Pirates was +56 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Cardinals averaged 4.8 runs per game and the Pirates 4.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates+1254.04.143%37%4.1 (11 Wins)
St Louis Cardinals-1444.54.857%63%4.8 (14 Wins)

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Giants are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Giants 5.7 and Rockies 5, and San Francisco is winning 55% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rockies going 16-12 and they have the large edge in profit at +66 to -456 units. The average moneyline for the Rockies was -72 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Rockies averaged 4.4 runs per game and the Giants 4.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco Giants----5.7--55%4.1 (12 Wins)
Colorado Rockies----5.0--45%4.4 (16 Wins)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels

The current simulations favor the Angels, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is LAA 5.3 and HOU 5.2, and Los Angeles is winning 54% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Astros going 17-7. They have the large edge in units at +324 to -570. The Angels were +161 underdogs on average. In these games, the Astros averaged 5.8 and the Angels 3.5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Astros----5.2--46%5.8 (17 Wins)
Los Angeles Angels----5.3--54%3.5 (7 Wins)