MLB Picks: Parlay Heavily Favored Dodgers vs Miami with Cleveland vs Royals

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Friday, July 19, 2019

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs

The odds and our simulations favor the Cubs over the Padres. The projected score is CHC 4.3 and SD 3.7, and Chicago is winning 63% of simulations. The moneyline for the Cubs is -156 which translates to 61 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 13 matchups the Cubs are 7-6. The Cubs actually have the large edge in profit at +-218 to 285 units. In these games, the Padres averaged 4.3 and the Cubs 4.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Diego Padres+1353.73.741%37%4.3 (6 Wins)
Chicago Cubs-1564.34.359%63%4.2 (7 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles

The Red Sox are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Red Sox 5.6 and Orioles 4, with Boston winning 67% of the latest sims. The Red Sox are -228 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 70 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Red Sox going 23-6. They have the large edge in units at +449 to -1075. The Red Sox were -233 favorites on average. In these games, the Red Sox averaged 6.3 and the Orioles 3.7 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Red Sox-2285.65.667%67%6.3 (23 Wins)
Baltimore Orioles+1914.44.033%33%3.7 (6 Wins)

Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees

The simulations slightly favor the Rockies who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Rockies 6.2 and Yankees 5.8, with Colorado winning 51% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Yankees is -232 which translates to 70 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o11VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Colorado Rockies+1954.96.233%51%--
New York Yankees-2326.15.867%49%--

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Pirates. The projected score is Phillies 4.9 and Pirates 4.8, and Philadelphia is winning 50% of simulations. At -112 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Pirates a 53 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Phillies are up in this matchup recently going 8-6. They have the large edge in units at +128 to -338. The average moneyline for the Pirates was -55 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Phillies averaged 4.1 and the Pirates 2.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Phillies-1044.94.949%50%4.1 (8 Wins)
Pittsburgh Pirates-1125.14.951%50%2.8 (6 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Cardinals as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Cardinals 4.7 and Reds 4.2, with St. Louis being given a 53% chance of winning. At -111 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Reds a 53 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Cardinals going 17-10 and they have the large edge in profit at +207 to -532 units. The average moneyline for the Reds was +97 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 4.7 and the Reds 4.3 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals-1055.24.749%53%4.7 (17 Wins)
Cincinnati Reds-1115.34.251%47%4.3 (10 Wins)

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians

The Indians are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is CLE 5.3 and KC 3.5, and Cleveland is winning 75% of simulations. The Indians are -273 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 73 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Indians going 17-11 but the Indians get the large edge in profit at +-279 to 243 units. In these games the Indians averaged 5.2 runs per game and the Royals 4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Royals+2244.03.530%25%4.0 (11 Wins)
Cleveland Indians-2735.55.370%75%5.2 (17 Wins)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Blue Jays over the Tigers despite being on the road. The projected score is Blue Jays 5.1 and Tigers 3.5, with Toronto being given a 68% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Blue Jays is -161 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Tigers are 6-5 and they have the large edge in profit at +272 to -224 units. The average moneyline for the Tigers was +91 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Tigers averaged 3.5 runs per game and the Blue Jays 3.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Blue Jays-1615.15.160%68%3.3 (5 Wins)
Detroit Tigers+1414.43.540%32%3.5 (6 Wins)

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays

The current simulations favor the Rays, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is TB 5.4 and CHW 3.5, and Tampa Bay is winning 76% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Rays are 5-4. The Rays actually have the large edge in profit at +-60 to 67 units. In these games the Rays averaged 5.1 runs per game and the White Sox 3.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago White Sox----3.5--24%3.4 (4 Wins)
Tampa Bay Rays----5.4--76%5.1 (5 Wins)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Nationals to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Nationals 5.6 and Braves 4.8, with Washington winning 57% of the latest sims. The Nationals are -148 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 25 matchups the Nationals are 13-12 but the Nationals get the large edge in profit at +-79 to 180 units. The average moneyline for the Nationals was -80 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Nationals averaged 5.1 and the Braves 4.6 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Nationals-1485.35.658%57%5.1 (13 Wins)
Atlanta Braves+1364.74.842%43%4.6 (12 Wins)

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros

The odds and our simulations favor the Astros over the Rangers. The projected score is HOU 4.6 and TEX 4, with Houston winning 62% of the time. The moneyline for the Astros is -228 which translates to 70 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Astros have been dominating this matchup recently with a 20-13 record. The Astros actually have the large edge in profit at +-309 to 661 units. In these games the Astros averaged 5.2 runs per game and the Rangers 4.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Texas Rangers+1913.74.033%38%4.2 (13 Wins)
Houston Astros-2284.84.667%62%5.2 (20 Wins)

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Twins. The projected score is Athletics 4.9 and Twins 4.8, with Oakland winning 50% of the latest sims. At -134 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Twins a 57 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Athletics going 7-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +167 to -207 units. The average moneyline for the Athletics was -85 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Athletics averaged 5 and the Twins 3.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oakland Athletics+1155.14.945%50%5.0 (7 Wins)
Minnesota Twins-1345.45.055%50%3.8 (4 Wins)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

The Brewers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Brewers 5.3 and D-Backs 4.4, with Milwaukee winning 58% of the latest sims. The Brewers are -129 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Brewers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 9-5 record and they have the large edge in profit at +436 to -514 units. The average moneyline for the Brewers was +8 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Brewers averaged 4.5 and the D-Backs 3.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Brewers-1295.25.354%58%4.5 (9 Wins)
Arizona Diamondbacks+1114.84.446%42%3.2 (5 Wins)

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is LAD 4.8 and MIA 2.8, with Los Angeles winning 80% of the time. At -306 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Dodgers a 75 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Dodgers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-5 record but the Dodgers get the large edge in profit at +-66 to 242 units. In these games the Dodgers averaged 5.1 runs per game and the Marlins 3.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Marlins+2493.02.828%20%3.5 (5 Wins)
Los Angeles Dodgers-3064.64.872%80%5.1 (8 Wins)

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Angels are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Angels 5.4 and Mariners 4.2, with Los Angeles being given a 62% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Mariners have been dominating this matchup recently with a 19-16 record and they have the large edge in profit at +422 to -580 units. The average moneyline for the Mariners was +45 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Angels averaged 5.7 and the Mariners 4.6 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Angels----5.4--62%5.7 (16 Wins)
Seattle Mariners----4.2--38%4.6 (19 Wins)

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Giants as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is SF 4 and NYM 3.9, and San Francisco is winning 51% of simulations. At -189 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Mets a 65 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 11 matchups the Mets are 6-5. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Mets are at -35 and the Giants are -68 against each other. The average moneyline for the Giants was +43 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Mets averaged 3.5 and the Giants 3.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Mets-1894.23.963%49%3.5 (6 Wins)
San Francisco Giants+1623.34.037%51%3.2 (5 Wins)