MLB Picks: Take Houston Astros to Keep Powering Their Way to Another Win vs Oakland

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Tuesday, September 10, 2019

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers

The current simulations favor the Yankees, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Yankees 6 and Tigers 3.7, with New York winning 75% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 5 wins head-to-head in recent seasons but the Yankees get the large edge in profit at +-311 to 577 units. The Yankees were -263 favorites on average. Both teams have averaged 4.5 runs in these games.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Yankees----6.0--75%4.5 (5 Wins)
Detroit Tigers----3.7--25%4.5 (5 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Dodgers over the Orioles despite being on the road. The projected score is Dodgers 6 and Orioles 3.5, with Los Angeles being given a 76% chance of winning. The Dodgers are -331 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 77 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Dodgers-3315.96.074%76%--
Baltimore Orioles+2704.13.526%24%--

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

The simulations slightly favor the Phillies who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is PHI 4.8 and ATL 4.6, and Philadelphia is winning 56% of the sims. The moneyline for the Braves is -166 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Braves going 19-13. They have the large edge in units at +381 to -838. The average moneyline for the Phillies was -28 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Braves averaged 5.8 and the Phillies 3.9 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Braves-1665.14.661%44%5.8 (19 Wins)
Philadelphia Phillies+1484.44.839%56%3.9 (13 Wins)

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Red Sox are favored. The projected score is Red Sox 5.8 and Blue Jays 4.5, and Boston is winning 63% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Red Sox have been dominating this matchup recently with a 25-10 record. They have the large edge in units at +395 to -879. The Blue Jays were +164 underdogs on average. In these games, the Red Sox averaged 6 and the Blue Jays 4.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Red Sox----5.8--63%6.0 (25 Wins)
Toronto Blue Jays----4.5--37%4.8 (10 Wins)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Brewers over the Marlins despite being on the road. The projected score is Brewers 6.2 and Marlins 4.2, with Milwaukee being given a 70% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Brewers is -180 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Brewers going 7-4 but both teams are down overall playing each other (Brewers -19 units, Marlins -33 units). The Brewers were -189 favorites on average. In these games, the Brewers averaged 5.5 and the Marlins 4.6 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Brewers-1804.76.263%70%5.5 (7 Wins)
Miami Marlins+1613.84.237%30%4.6 (4 Wins)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Mets. The projected score is NYM 4.5 and ARI 4.4, and New York is winning 53% of the sims. The moneyline for the Mets is -128 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Mets going 7-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +253 to -378 units. The average moneyline for the D-Backs was -48 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Mets averaged 3.8 runs per game and the D-Backs 3.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Diamondbacks+1133.84.446%47%3.7 (4 Wins)
New York Mets-1284.24.554%53%3.8 (7 Wins)

Washington Nationals vs Minnesota Twins

The odds and our simulations favor the Twins over the Nationals. The projected score is MIN 5.5 and WAS 4.9, and Minnesota is winning 60% of simulations. At -153 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Twins a 60 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Nationals+1374.94.941%40%--
Minnesota Twins-1535.65.559%60%--

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers

The odds and our simulations favor the Rays over the Rangers despite being on the road. The projected score is Rays 4.6 and Rangers 4, with Tampa Bay being given a 56% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Rays is -129 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Rays have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-2 record. They have the large edge in units at +229 to -446. The Rays were -153 favorites on average. In these games, the Rays averaged 4.6 and the Rangers 2.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Rays-1294.74.655%56%4.6 (7 Wins)
Texas Rangers+1144.34.045%44%2.8 (2 Wins)

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the White Sox. The projected score is CHW 4.5 and KC 4.4, and Chicago is winning 52% of simulations. At -113 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the White Sox a 53 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The White Sox have been dominating this matchup recently with a 19-16 record. They have the large edge in units at +139 to -470 units. The average moneyline for the Royals was -17 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the White Sox averaged 4.8 runs per game and the Royals 4.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Royals-1014.74.449%48%4.3 (16 Wins)
Chicago White Sox-1134.84.551%52%4.8 (19 Wins)

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Astros to win the game. The projected score is HOU 5.6 and OAK 4.3, and Houston is winning 69% of simulations. The moneyline for the Astros is -150 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Astros since the moneyline is moving that way. The Astros have been dominating this matchup recently with a 23-12 record. They have the large edge in units at +133 to -545 units. In these games the Astros averaged 5.9 runs per game and the Athletics 3.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oakland Athletics+1354.74.341%31%3.5 (12 Wins)
Houston Astros-1505.35.659%69%5.9 (23 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Cardinals to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Cardinals 6.2 and Rockies 4.7, and St. Louis is winning 64% of simulations. The moneyline for the Cardinals is -149 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Cardinals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 9-2 record and they have the large edge in profit at +455 to -733 units. The average moneyline for the Rockies was +87 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 6.2 and the Rockies 4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o13.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals-1497.06.258%64%6.2 (9 Wins)
Colorado Rockies+1336.54.742%36%4.0 (2 Wins)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants

The odds favor the Giants, but the sims are solidly on the Giants. The projected score is SF 4.4 and PIT 3.7, and San Francisco is winning 64% of simulations. At -124 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Giants a 55 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Pirates going 7-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +342 to -262 units. In these games, the Pirates averaged 5.4 and the Giants 3.9 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates+1094.13.746%36%5.4 (7 Wins)
San Francisco Giants-1244.44.454%64%3.9 (4 Wins)

Cleveland Indians vs Los Angeles Angels

The current simulations favor the Indians, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Indians 6.3 and Angels 4.2, and Cleveland is winning 70% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Indians have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-3 record and they have the large edge in profit at +62 to -256 units. The Indians were -186 favorites on average. In these games, the Indians averaged 4.7 and the Angels 3.5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Indians----6.3--70%4.7 (7 Wins)
Los Angeles Angels----4.2--30%3.5 (3 Wins)

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres

The Cubs are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Cubs 4.5 and Padres 3.7, with Chicago winning 58% of the latest sims. The Cubs are -142 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Cubs going 8-3 and they have the large edge in profit at +170 to -356 units. The Cubs were -173 favorites on average. In these games, the Cubs averaged 5.7 and the Padres 5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Cubs-1424.54.557%58%5.7 (8 Wins)
San Diego Padres+1274.03.743%42%5.0 (3 Wins)

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners

The simulations slightly favor the Mariners who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is SEA 5.1 and CIN 4.9, with Seattle winning 55% of the time. At -132 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Reds a 57 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Reds-1324.74.955%45%--
Seattle Mariners+1174.35.145%55%--