MLB Picks: Twins and Perez Look to Upset Strasburg and Nationals

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Wednesday, September 11, 2019

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Yankees to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Yankees 6.1 and Tigers 4.2, with New York winning 67% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Yankees is -206 which translates to 67 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Tigers are 6-5 and they have the large edge in profit at +850 to -411 units. The Tigers were +232 underdogs on average. In these games the Tigers averaged 5.2 runs per game and the Yankees 5.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Yankees-2065.26.165%67%5.1 (5 Wins)
Detroit Tigers+1774.24.235%33%5.2 (6 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Dodgers to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Dodgers 5 and Orioles 3.5, with Los Angeles winning 67% of the latest sims. The Dodgers are -188 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. Los Angeles won their lone matchup in recent seasons 7 to 3 as -359 favorites leading to a 28 profit.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Dodgers-1885.25.063%67%7.0 (1 Win)
Baltimore Orioles+1664.33.537%33%3.0 (0 Wins)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

The odds and our simulations favor the Braves over the Phillies despite being on the road. The projected score is Braves 5.3 and Phillies 4.6, with Atlanta winning 55% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Braves is -139 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Braves have been dominating this matchup recently with a 19-14 record and they have the large edge in profit at +281 to -683 units. In these games, the Braves averaged 5.8 and the Phillies 4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Braves-1395.05.357%55%5.8 (19 Wins)
Philadelphia Phillies+1244.54.643%45%4.0 (14 Wins)

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

The odds and our simulations favor the Red Sox over the Blue Jays despite being on the road. The projected score is Red Sox 5.6 and Blue Jays 4.7, with Boston winning 58% of the latest sims. The Red Sox are -150 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Red Sox going 25-11 and they have the large edge in profit at +295 to -742 units. The Red Sox were -189 favorites on average. In these games, the Red Sox averaged 5.9 and the Blue Jays 4.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Red Sox-1505.55.659%58%5.9 (25 Wins)
Toronto Blue Jays+1365.04.741%42%4.8 (11 Wins)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins

The Brewers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Brewers 5.5 and Marlins 3.7, with Milwaukee winning 70% of the latest sims. At -151 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Brewers a 60 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Brewers going 8-4. They have the large edge in units at +37 to -133. The Brewers were -188 favorites on average. In these games, the Brewers averaged 5.4 and the Marlins 4.5 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Brewers-1514.55.559%70%5.4 (8 Wins)
Miami Marlins+1354.03.741%30%4.5 (4 Wins)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets

The simulations slightly favor the D-Backs who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is D-Backs 4.8 and Mets 4.1, and Arizona is winning 56% of simulations. The moneyline for the Mets is -113 which translates to 53 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Mets going 8-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +333 to -478 units. In these games the Mets averaged 3.8 runs per game and the D-Backs 3.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Diamondbacks-1023.94.849%56%3.6 (4 Wins)
New York Mets-1134.14.151%44%3.8 (8 Wins)

Washington Nationals vs Minnesota Twins

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Twins are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is MIN 5.5 and WAS 5.4, and Minnesota is winning 51% of simulations. The moneyline for the Nationals is -142 which translates to 59 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Nationals-1425.25.457%49%0.0 (0 Wins)
Minnesota Twins+1264.85.543%51%5.0 (1 Win)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers

The current simulations slightly favor the Rays, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Rays 5.4 and Rangers 5, with Tampa Bay winning 52% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rays going 8-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +303 to -546 units. The Rangers were +150 underdogs on average. In these games, the Rays averaged 4.6 and the Rangers 2.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Rays----5.4--52%4.6 (8 Wins)
Texas Rangers----5.0--48%2.8 (2 Wins)

Cleveland Indians vs Los Angeles Angels

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Indians are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Indians 5.6 and Angels 4.7, with Cleveland winning 58% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Indians have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-3 record and they have the large edge in profit at +130 to -356 units. The Angels were +185 underdogs on average. In these games, the Indians averaged 5 and the Angels 3.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Indians----5.6--58%5.0 (8 Wins)
Los Angeles Angels----4.7--42%3.2 (3 Wins)

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the White Sox to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is CHW 4.8 and KC 4.6, with Chicago winning 55% of the time. The White Sox are -159 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 61 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The White Sox have been dominating this matchup recently with a 20-16 record. They have the large edge in units at +225 to -570 units. The average moneyline for the White Sox was -16 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the White Sox averaged 4.8 runs per game and the Royals 4.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Royals+1424.94.640%45%4.3 (16 Wins)
Chicago White Sox-1595.64.860%55%4.8 (20 Wins)

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Athletics are favored. The projected score is Athletics 5.8 and Astros 4.8, with Oakland being given a 58% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Astros going 23-13. They have the large edge in units at +33 to -403 units. In these games the Astros averaged 5.9 runs per game and the Athletics 4.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oakland Athletics----5.8--58%4.0 (13 Wins)
Houston Astros----4.8--42%5.9 (23 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies

The Cardinals are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Cardinals 5.6 and Rockies 4.5, with St. Louis winning 60% of the latest sims. The Cardinals are -163 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Cardinals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 9-3 record. They have the large edge in units at +355 to -591. The average moneyline for the Cardinals was -108 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 5.8 and the Rockies 3.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o13.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals-1637.15.660%60%5.8 (9 Wins)
Colorado Rockies+1456.44.540%40%3.8 (3 Wins)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants

The odds have this as an even matchup, but the sims are solidly on the Giants. The projected score is SF 4.3 and PIT 4, with San Francisco winning 56% of the time. The Pirates are -107 on the moneyline and the Giants are -107. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Pirates have the recent head-to-head edge going 7-5 and they have the large edge in profit at +242 to -181 units. In these games, the Pirates averaged 5.2 and the Giants 4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Pirates-1074.24.050%44%5.2 (7 Wins)
San Francisco Giants-1074.34.350%56%4.0 (5 Wins)

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Cubs are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Cubs 4.1 and Padres 3.6, with Chicago winning 56% of the latest sims. The Cubs are -109 on the moneyline and the Padres are -106. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Cubs going 8-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +70 to -202 units. The Cubs were -173 favorites on average. In these games, the Cubs averaged 5.9 and the Padres 5.3 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Cubs-1094.14.150%56%5.9 (8 Wins)
San Diego Padres-1063.93.650%44%5.3 (4 Wins)

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Mariners are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is SEA 4.3 and CIN 4.2, with Seattle winning 53% of the time. The moneyline for the Reds is -140 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Reds-1404.24.257%47%3.0 (0 Wins)
Seattle Mariners+1243.84.343%53%4.0 (1 Win)