MLB Picks: Value on Houston Astros at Home vs Detroit Even at -437

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Monday, August 19, 2019

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Orioles. The projected score is BAL 5.4 and KC 5.3, with Baltimore winning 52% of the time. The moneyline for the Orioles is -125 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Royals are up in this matchup recently going 7-5 and they have the large edge in profit at +198 to -266 units. The average moneyline for the Orioles was -81 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Royals averaged 5.5 and the Orioles 4.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Royals+1114.95.346%48%5.5 (7 Wins)
Baltimore Orioles-1255.15.454%52%4.8 (5 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

The simulations slightly favor the Pirates who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is PIT 4.5 and WAS 4.4, and Pittsburgh is winning 54% of the sims. The moneyline for the Nationals is -126 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Nationals are up in this matchup recently going 6-4 and they have the significant edge in profit at +21 to -62 units. The average moneyline for the Pirates was +94 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Nationals averaged 4.4 and the Pirates 3.1 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o10VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Nationals-1265.14.454%46%4.4 (6 Wins)
Pittsburgh Pirates+1124.94.546%54%3.1 (4 Wins)

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds

The simulations slightly favor the Padres who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Padres 5.4 and Reds 4.4, with San Diego being given a 60% chance of winning. At -160 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Reds a 62 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Reds are 6-5. They have the large edge in units at +92 to -78 units. In these games the Reds averaged 4.8 runs per game and the Padres 4.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Diego Padres+1434.25.440%60%4.2 (5 Wins)
Cincinnati Reds-1604.84.460%40%4.8 (6 Wins)

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Rays to win the game. The projected score is TB 4.5 and SEA 4, with Tampa Bay winning 60% of the time. At -194 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Rays a 66 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Mariners are up in this matchup recently going 6-4. They have the large edge in units at +112 to -349. The average moneyline for the Mariners was +7 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Rays averaged 3.4 runs per game and the Mariners 3.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Mariners+1723.84.036%40%3.3 (6 Wins)
Tampa Bay Rays-1944.74.564%60%3.4 (4 Wins)

Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals

The simulations slightly favor the Brewers who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Brewers 4.6 and Cardinals 4.3, with Milwaukee winning 51% of the latest sims. The Cardinals are -132 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Brewers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 16-13 record and they have the large edge in profit at +246 to -452 units. The average moneyline for the Cardinals was -36 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Cardinals averaged 4.7 runs per game and the Brewers 4.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Brewers+1174.64.645%51%4.3 (16 Wins)
St Louis Cardinals-1324.94.355%49%4.7 (13 Wins)

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Rangers are favored. The projected score is TEX 5.6 and LAA 5.5, with Texas winning 55% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Angels going 20-12. They have the large edge in units at +340 to -723. The average moneyline for the Angels was -81 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Angels averaged 4.9 and the Rangers 3.8 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Angels----5.5--45%4.9 (20 Wins)
Texas Rangers----5.6--55%3.8 (12 Wins)

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Astros over the Tigers. The projected score is HOU 6.5 and DET 3.2, with Houston winning 87% of the time. At -437 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Astros a 81 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Astros going 8-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +228 to -465 units. In these games the Astros averaged 5.8 runs per game and the Tigers 2.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Tigers+3433.73.222%13%2.6 (1 Win)
Houston Astros-4375.86.578%87%5.8 (8 Wins)

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Twins to win the game. The projected score is MIN 5.6 and CHW 4.3, and Minnesota is winning 70% of simulations. The Twins are -211 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 68 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Twins going 19-10. They have the large edge in units at +148 to -591 units. In these games the Twins averaged 5.6 runs per game and the White Sox 3.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago White Sox+1834.24.334%30%3.6 (10 Wins)
Minnesota Twins-2115.35.666%70%5.6 (19 Wins)

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks

The current simulations favor the D-Backs, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is ARI 4.9 and COL 4.4, and Arizona is winning 60% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Rockies have been dominating this matchup recently with a 20-15 record. They have the large edge in units at +675 to -604. The average moneyline for the D-Backs was -60 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Rockies averaged 5.7 and the D-Backs 5.4 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Colorado Rockies----4.4--40%5.7 (20 Wins)
Arizona Diamondbacks----4.9--60%5.4 (15 Wins)