MLB Picks: Value on Nola and Phillies at Home vs Syndergaard and Mets

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Monday, April 15, 2019

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is BOS 5.5 and BAL 3.9, and Boston is winning 72% of simulations. The Red Sox are -250 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 71 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Orioles since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Red Sox have been dominating this matchup recently with a 18-4 record and they have the large edge in profit at +435 to -940 units. In these games the Red Sox averaged 6.5 runs per game and the Orioles 3.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o11.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Orioles+2005.13.932%28%3.6 (4 Wins)
Boston Red Sox-2506.45.568%72%6.5 (18 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

The odds favor the Phillies, but the sims are solidly on the Phillies. The projected score is PHI 4.8 and NYM 4.5, and Philadelphia is winning 56% of simulations. At -115 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Phillies a 53 percent chance of winning. Bettors seem to be favoring the Mets since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Mets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 23-15 record and they have the large edge in profit at +580 to -872 units. The average moneyline for the Mets was -28 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Mets averaged 5 and the Phillies 4.2 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Mets-1053.74.549%44%5.0 (23 Wins)
Philadelphia Phillies-1153.84.851%56%4.2 (15 Wins)

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Cubs over the Marlins despite being on the road. The projected score is Cubs 5 and Marlins 3.5, with Chicago being given a 66% chance of winning. The Cubs are -125 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Cubs going 9-5. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Cubs are at -9 and the Marlins are -118 against each other. The Cubs were -187 favorites on average. In these games, the Cubs averaged 6.1 and the Marlins 3.3 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Cubs-1254.25.054%66%6.1 (9 Wins)
Miami Marlins+1153.83.546%34%3.3 (5 Wins)

St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Brewers. The projected score is MIL 4.8 and STL 4.7, with Milwaukee winning 52% of the time. The Brewers are -141 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Brewers to win. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Brewers going 14-9. They have the large edge in units at +495 to -590 units. The average moneyline for the Cardinals was -43 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Cardinals averaged 4.2 and the Brewers 4.1 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals+1204.54.744%48%4.2 (9 Wins)
Milwaukee Brewers-1415.04.856%52%4.1 (14 Wins)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Twins to win the game. The projected score is MIN 5 and TOR 4.2, and Minnesota is winning 64% of simulations. At -128 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Twins a 56 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Twins have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-5 record. They have the large edge in units at +316 to -307 units. In these games the Twins averaged 6.2 runs per game and the Blue Jays 4.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Blue Jays+1184.14.245%36%4.3 (5 Wins)
Minnesota Twins-1284.45.055%64%6.2 (8 Wins)

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers

The current simulations favor the Angels, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Angels 5.7 and Rangers 4.9, and Los Angeles is winning 56% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Angels have been dominating this matchup recently with a 16-7 record. They have the large edge in units at +471 to -817. The average moneyline for the Rangers was +80 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Angels averaged 5 and the Rangers 3.1 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Angels----5.7--56%5.0 (16 Wins)
Texas Rangers----4.9--44%3.1 (7 Wins)

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox

The simulations slightly favor the Royals who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Royals 5 and White Sox 4.5, with Kansas City being given a 53% chance of winning. At -125 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the White Sox a 56 percent chance of winning. People are betting more heavily on the Royals based on how the moneyline is moving. The White Sox are up in this matchup recently going 12-10. They have the large edge in units at +157 to -283 units. The average moneyline for the Royals was -26 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the White Sox averaged 5.4 runs per game and the Royals 4.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o9.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Royals+1054.65.047%53%4.4 (10 Wins)
Chicago White Sox-1254.94.553%47%5.4 (12 Wins)

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Dodgers over the Reds. The projected score is LAD 5.1 and CIN 3.2, with Los Angeles winning 76% of the time. The moneyline for the Dodgers is -167 which translates to 63 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Reds since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. Head-to-head, the Dodgers are 7-6 but the Dodgers get the large edge in profit at +-208 to 270 units. In these games the Dodgers averaged 5.1 runs per game and the Reds 4.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Reds+1383.23.240%24%4.4 (6 Wins)
Los Angeles Dodgers-1673.85.160%76%5.1 (7 Wins)

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres

With unknown variables yet to be determined, the simulations have this as a coin flip and Vegas has not posted lines yet. The projected score is Rockies 4.3 and Padres 4.2, with Colorado being given a 50% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Rockies have been dominating this matchup recently with a 23-15 record. They have the large edge in units at +145 to -357. The Rockies were -132 favorites on average. In these games, the Rockies averaged 5.2 and the Padres 3.9 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Colorado Rockies----4.3--50%5.2 (23 Wins)
San Diego Padres----4.4--50%3.9 (15 Wins)

Cleveland Indians vs Seattle Mariners

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Indians. The projected score is Indians 4.2 and Mariners 3.9, with Cleveland winning 51% of the latest sims. The Indians are -125 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Indians based on how the moneyline is moving. Head-to-head, the Mariners are 7-6. They have the large edge in units at +369 to -340 units. The Indians were -169 favorites on average. Both teams have averaged 4.8 runs in these games.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Indians-1253.94.253%51%4.8 (6 Wins)
Seattle Mariners+1053.63.947%49%4.8 (7 Wins)