MLB Picks: Value on Underdog Atlanta Braves and Favored Dodgers

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Wednesday, October 09, 2019

St Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

The simulations slightly favor the Braves who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is ATL 4.5 and STL 4.4, and Atlanta is winning 54% of the sims. The moneyline for the Cardinals is -115 which translates to 53 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Cardinals based on how the moneyline is moving. The Braves have been dominating this matchup recently with a 10-6 record. They have the large edge in units at +444 to -358 units. In these games the Braves averaged 5.1 runs per game and the Cardinals 4.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o8VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals-1154.14.451%46%4.5 (6 Wins)
Atlanta Braves-1023.94.549%54%5.1 (10 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Dodgers to win the game. The projected score is LAD 4.9 and WAS 4, and Los Angeles is winning 64% of simulations. At -159 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Dodgers a 61 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Dodgers going 11-6 and they have the large edge in profit at +351 to -399 units. The average moneyline for the Dodgers was -63 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Dodgers averaged 4.4 runs per game and the Nationals 3.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Nationals+1413.24.040%36%3.3 (6 Wins)
Los Angeles Dodgers-1593.84.960%64%4.4 (11 Wins)

Thursday, October 10, 2019

St Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Cardinals are slightly favored. The projected score is Cardinals 4.7 and Braves 4.3, with St. Louis being given a 53% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Braves going 10-6 and they have the large edge in profit at +444 to -358 units. In these games the Braves averaged 5.1 runs per game and the Cardinals 4.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St Louis Cardinals----4.7--53%4.5 (6 Wins)
Atlanta Braves----4.3--47%5.1 (10 Wins)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros

The Astros are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is HOU 4.7 and TB 3.5, and Houston is winning 68% of simulations. At -285 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Astros a 74 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Rays are up in this matchup recently going 10-8 and they have the large edge in profit at +698 to -621 units. In these games the Astros averaged 3.9 runs per game and the Rays 3.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Rays+2342.83.529%32%3.4 (10 Wins)
Houston Astros-2854.24.771%68%3.9 (8 Wins)