MLB Power Ranking: Houston Astros #2 and Still Ahead of Yankees

1LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Projected Record: 102-60

They win the championship in 25% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 6/1, 14.3%. The Dodgers are averaging 102.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 98.5 games. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NL. They went 106-56 last season. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-854 loss).

When the perception of a team is very different than how good or bad they really are there is often very good betting value. Sportsline.com is the best place to find value each day based on objective computer simulations.

2HOUSTON ASTROS
Projected Record: 102-60

Even with the juice, the Astros are a good betting value. Their 17.2% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #2 in the league. Current Odds are 7/1, 12.5%. The Astros are averaging 102.4 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 97.5 games. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AL. They went 107-55 last season. They were not good against the spread going 89-73 (-226 loss).

3NEW YORK YANKEES
Projected Record: 98-64

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 14.3% chance is #3 in the league. Current Odds are 3/1, 25%. The Yankees are averaging 97.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 101.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AL. Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 95.3 wins. Their 103-59 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +872.

4CHICAGO CUBS
Projected Record: 91-71

They are a good bet to win the championship (6.6 percent chance). Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Cubs are averaging 91.1 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 88.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NL. They went 84-78 last season. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-1148 loss).

5BOSTON RED SOX
Projected Record: 95-67

They win the championship in 5.7% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Red Sox are averaging 95.2 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 92.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AL. They went 84-78 last season. They were not good against the spread going 68-94 (-4111 loss).

6TAMPA BAY RAYS
Projected Record: 94-68

Even with the juice, the Rays are a good betting value. Their 4.5% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #6 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Rays are averaging 93.5 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 91.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL. They were expected to win 58% of their games last season so their 96-66 met expectations. They broke even against the money line. They were down slightly (-17) against the money line.

7ATLANTA BRAVES
Projected Record: 87-75

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 4.1% chance is #7 in the league. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. The Braves are averaging 86.9 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 90.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NL. They went 97-65 last season. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-490 loss).

8MINNESOTA TWINS
Projected Record: 92-70

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Twins would be a good betting value. Their 3.8% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #8 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. The Twins are averaging 92.1 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 90.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AL. Their 101-61 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 56%. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +1407.

9WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Projected Record: 87-75

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 3.3% chance is #9 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. The Nationals are averaging 86.7 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 86.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NL. They went 94-69 last season. They were very good against the spread going 92-71 for (+736 profit).

10OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Projected Record: 90-72

Their simulation based win percentage (3%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Athletics are averaging 90.3 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 90.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AL. They went 97-65 last season. They were very good against the spread going 90-72 for (+717 profit).

11ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Projected Record: 87-75

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2.9% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. The Cardinals are averaging 86.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 88.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NL. They went 91-71 last season. They were very good against the spread going 88-74 for (+312 profit).

12MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Projected Record: 86-76

They are a good bet to win the championship (2.6 percent chance). Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The Brewers are averaging 85.7 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 82.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NL. They went 89-74 last season. They were not good against the spread going 79-84 (-1603 loss).

13CLEVELAND INDIANS
Projected Record: 89-73

Their 2.2% chance is #13 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. The Indians are averaging 89.5 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 88.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL. They went 93-69 last season. They were not good against the spread going 86-76 (-266 loss).

14ARIZONA D-BACKS
Projected Record: 85-77

They are a good bet to win the championship (1.9 percent chance). Current Odds are 60/1, 1.6%. The D-Backs are averaging 84.9 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 82.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NL. They went 85-77 last season. They were very good against the spread going 89-73 for (+258 profit).

15NEW YORK METS
Projected Record: 84-78

Their 1.8% chance is #15 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. The Mets are averaging 84.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 86.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NL. They went 86-76 last season. They were not good against the spread going 82-80 (-512 loss).

16PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Projected Record: 77-85

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.3% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. The Phillies are averaging 76.6 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 85.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NL. They went 81-81 last season. They were not good against the spread going 78-84 (-1222 loss).

17LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Projected Record: 79-83

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.2% chance is #17 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Angels are averaging 78.6 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 86.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AL. They went 72-90 last season. They were not good against the spread going 79-83 (-837 loss).

18COLORADO ROCKIES
Projected Record: 77-85

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.1% chance is #18 in the league. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. The Rockies are averaging 77.2 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 75.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NL. They went 71-91 last season. They were not good against the spread going 73-89 (-2542 loss).

19CINCINNATI REDS
Projected Record: 74-88

Their 0.1% chance is #19 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Reds are averaging 73.6 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 82.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NL. They went 75-87 last season. They were not good against the spread going 83-79 (-670 loss).

20SAN DIEGO PADRES
Projected Record: 74-88

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Padres are averaging 73.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 84.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL. They went 70-92 last season. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-2051 loss).

21CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Projected Record: 77-85

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The White Sox are averaging 76.7 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 81.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AL. They were expected to win 42% of their games last season so their 72-89 met expectations. They were very good against the money line (+677).

22SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Projected Record: 71-91

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. The Giants are averaging 71.5 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 68.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NL. They were expected to win 45% of their games last season so their 77-85 met expectations. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +707.

23SEATTLE MARINERS
Projected Record: 74-88

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. The Mariners are averaging 74.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 66.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AL. They were expected to win 44% of their games last season so their 68-94 met expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1783) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

24PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Projected Record: 69-93

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the World Series is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. The Pirates are averaging 69.3 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 73.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NL. They went 69-93 last season. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-2736 loss).

25KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Projected Record: 70-92

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. The Royals are averaging 70.1 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 66.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AL. They went 59-103 last season. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-1890 loss).

26TEXAS RANGERS
Projected Record: 74-88

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. The Rangers are averaging 73.7 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 77.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AL. Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 72 wins. Their 78-84 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +466.

27MIAMI MARLINS
Projected Record: 66-96

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Marlins are averaging 65.8 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 64.5 games. In simulations they finish last in the NL based on projected wins. They went 57-105 last season. They were not good against the spread going 83-79 (-787 loss).

28TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Projected Record: 70-92

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Blue Jays are averaging 70.3 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 73.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AL. They were expected to win 43% of their games last season so their 67-95 met expectations. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1262 units.

29BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Projected Record: 57-105

They do not win the World Series in any simulations. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. Both the simulations and oddsmakers have them at 57.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AL. Their 54-108 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 59.9-102.1. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1942) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

30DETROIT TIGERS
Projected Record: 52-110

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Tigers are averaging 51.6 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 59.5 wins. In simulations they finish last in the AL based on projected wins. They went 47-114 last season. They were not good against the spread going 65-96 (-3266 loss).