MLB Power Ranking: Look for a Dodgers vs Yankees (Despite SP Injuries) World Series

1LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Projected Record: 107-55

Even with the juice, the Dodgers are a good betting value. Their 29.1% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #1 in the league. Current Odds are 6/1, 14.3%. The Dodgers are averaging 107.5 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 98.5 games. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NL. They went 106-56 last season. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-854 loss).

When the perception of a team is very different than how good or bad they really are there is often very good betting value. Sportsline.com is the best place to find value each day based on objective computer simulations.

2NEW YORK YANKEES
Projected Record: 101-61

Their simulation based win percentage (20.6%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 3/1, 25%. The Yankees are averaging 101.2 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 101.5 wins. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AL. They went 103-59 last season. They were very good against the spread going 94-68 for (+1643 profit).

3HOUSTON ASTROS
Projected Record: 98-64

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Astros would be a good betting value. Their 9.7% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #3 in the league. Current Odds are 8/1, 11.1%. The Astros are averaging 97.7 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 94.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AL. They went 107-55 last season. They were not good against the spread going 89-73 (-226 loss).

4MINNESOTA TWINS
Projected Record: 97-65

They are a good bet to win the championship (6.5 percent chance). Current Odds are 20/1, 4.8%. The Twins are averaging 96.8 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 90.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AL. Their 101-61 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 90.4-71.6. They were very good against the money line (+1407).

5WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Projected Record: 88-74

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Nationals would be a good betting value. Their 5.3% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #5 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. The Nationals are averaging 88.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 90.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NL. They went 94-69 last season. They were very good against the spread going 92-71 for (+736 profit).

6ATLANTA BRAVES
Projected Record: 87-75

Their 3.7% chance is #6 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 12/1, 7.7%. The Braves are averaging 87 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 90.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NL. Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 87.9 wins. Their 97-65 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +1106.

7ARIZONA D-BACKS
Projected Record: 88-74

They are a good bet to win the championship (3.4 percent chance). Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The D-Backs are averaging 87.9 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 83.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NL. They went 85-77 last season. They were very good against the spread going 89-73 for (+258 profit).

8TAMPA BAY RAYS
Projected Record: 93-69

Their simulation based win percentage (3.2%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. The Rays are averaging 92.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 89.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL. They went 96-66 last season. They were not good against the spread going 81-81 (-1041 loss).

9OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Projected Record: 90-72

Their simulation based win percentage (3.2%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. The Athletics are averaging 89.6 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 88.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AL. They went 97-65 last season. They were very good against the spread going 90-72 for (+717 profit).

10CHICAGO CUBS
Projected Record: 86-76

Their simulation based win percentage (2.8%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Cubs are averaging 86.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 84.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NL. They went 84-78 last season. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-1148 loss).

11ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Projected Record: 84-78

Their 2.1% chance is #11 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 14/1, 6.7%. The Cardinals are averaging 84.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 88.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NL. Their 91-71 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was 53%. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +664.

12MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Projected Record: 84-78

Their simulation based win percentage (2%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The Brewers are averaging 83.6 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 82.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NL. They went 89-74 last season. They were not good against the spread going 79-84 (-1603 loss).

13LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Projected Record: 87-75

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.7% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. The Angels are averaging 87.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 84.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL. They went 72-90 last season. They were not good against the spread going 79-83 (-837 loss).

14NEW YORK METS
Projected Record: 84-78

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.5% chance is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. The Mets are averaging 84 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 86.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NL. They went 86-76 last season. They were not good against the spread going 82-80 (-512 loss).

15CLEVELAND INDIANS
Projected Record: 89-73

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 1.4% chance is #15 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. The Indians are averaging 88.7 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 84.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AL. They went 93-69 last season. They were not good against the spread going 86-76 (-266 loss).

16CINCINNATI REDS
Projected Record: 82-80

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.2% chance is #16 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 83.5 games. The Reds are averaging 82.5 wins per sim. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NL. They were expected to win 49% of their games last season so their 75-87 met expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1364) based on a 100 unit risk per game.

17PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Projected Record: 81-81

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1% chance is #17 in the league. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. The Phillies are averaging 81 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 85.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NL. They went 81-81 last season. They were not good against the spread going 78-84 (-1222 loss).

18BOSTON RED SOX
Projected Record: 87-75

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1% chance is #18 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. The Red Sox are averaging 87.1 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 87.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AL. They went 84-78 last season. They were not good against the spread going 68-94 (-4111 loss).

19CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Projected Record: 80-82

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 0.3% chance is #19 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. The White Sox are averaging 80.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 83.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AL. They went 72-89 last season. They were not good against the spread going 80-81 (-236 loss).

20TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Projected Record: 76-86

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Blue Jays are averaging 75.7 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 75.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AL. They went 67-95 last season. They were not good against the spread going 80-82 (-236 loss).

21SAN DIEGO PADRES
Projected Record: 74-88

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the World Series is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. The Padres are averaging 74.4 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 82.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL. They went 70-92 last season. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-2051 loss).

22COLORADO ROCKIES
Projected Record: 73-89

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. The Rockies are averaging 72.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 74.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NL. They went 71-91 last season. They were not good against the spread going 73-89 (-2542 loss).

23SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Projected Record: 72-90

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the World Series is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 300/1, 0.3%. The Giants are averaging 72.3 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 68.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NL. They went 77-85 last season. They were not good against the spread going 80-82 (-1664 loss).

24TEXAS RANGERS
Projected Record: 74-88

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the World Series is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 50/1, 2%. The Rangers are averaging 74.2 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 79.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AL. Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 72 wins. Their 78-84 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +466.

25KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Projected Record: 65-97

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the World Series is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. The Royals are averaging 65.2 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 64.5 games. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AL. They went 59-103 last season. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-1890 loss).

26PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Projected Record: 67-95

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. The Pirates are averaging 66.7 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 72.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NL. They went 69-93 last season. They were not good against the spread going 76-86 (-2736 loss).

27MIAMI MARLINS
Projected Record: 63-99

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Marlins are averaging 62.6 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 62.5 wins. In simulations they finish last in the NL based on projected wins. They went 57-105 last season. They were not good against the spread going 83-79 (-787 loss).

28SEATTLE MARINERS
Projected Record: 64-98

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 500/1, 0.2%. The Mariners are averaging 64.2 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 68.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AL. They went 68-94 last season. They were not good against the spread going 79-83 (-1511 loss).

29BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Projected Record: 56-106

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. Both the simulations and oddsmakers have them at 56.5 wins. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AL. They went 54-108 last season. They were not good against the spread going 71-91 (-2138 loss).

30DETROIT TIGERS
Projected Record: 52-110

They have no chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 1000/1, 0.1%. The Tigers are averaging 52.3 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 56.5 wins. In simulations they finish last in the AL based on projected wins. They went 47-114 last season. They were not good against the spread going 65-96 (-3266 loss).