MLB Power Rankings: 2018 Review and 2019 Preview

1BOSTON RED SOX 109-54 | 2019 Projection: 102 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 108 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +12.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 70.4% home win percentage was better than expected (62.5%). They won 63% on the road which was better than expected (55.1%). In simulations for next season they are averaging 102.1 wins and are projected to finish first in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #2 ranked Indians who are projected for 100.3 wins. The Red Sox may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Stream baseball games with SlingTV

2CLEVELAND INDIANS 91-72 | 2019 Projection: 100 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 91 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -8.8 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 42-39 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. Their 60.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (64.3%). We are projecting a +9.3 win improvement next season. They are averaging 100.3 wins per simulation and are projected to finish second in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #3 ranked Yankees who are projected for 96.2 wins.

3HOUSTON ASTROS 104-59 | 2019 Projection: 96 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 101.6 wins. Their 103 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 57-24 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. They won 46 at home and were expected to win 53.8. We are only projecting 95.8 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish fourth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #5 ranked Rays who are projected for 90 wins.

If you are looking for the best MLB playoff picks visit Sportsline.com where you get both objective computer simulation based picks and ones made by the industry's top handicappers.

4LOS ANGELES DODGERS 94-71 | 2019 Projection: 96 Wins
Win 65% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 97.3 wins. Their 91 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 58% on the road which was as expected (57.1%). They won 44 at home and were expected to win 51. We are projecting a +5.1 win improvement next season. They are averaging 96.1 wins per simulation and are projected to finish first in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #2 ranked Nationals who are projected for 92 wins.

5WASHINGTON NATIONALS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 92 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Nationals could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 91 wins. Their 82 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 50.6% on the road which was worse than expected (52.3%). They won 41 at home and were expected to win 48.6. We are projecting a +10 win improvement next season. They are averaging 92 wins per simulation and are projected to finish second in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #4 ranked Brewers who are projected for 91 wins.

6MILWAUKEE BREWERS 98-67 | 2019 Projection: 91 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 95 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +11.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 63% home win percentage was better than expected (55.2%). They won 54.3% on the road which was better than expected (47.8%). We are only projecting 91 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish fourth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #5 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 86.9 wins.

7NEW YORK YANKEES 101-63 | 2019 Projection: 96 Wins
Win 59% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 100 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was 0 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. Their 65.4% home win percentage was as expected (65.5%). They won 58% on the road which was as expected (58%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 96.2 wins and are projected to finish third in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #4 ranked Astros who are projected for 95.8 wins.

8CHICAGO CUBS 95-69 | 2019 Projection: 91 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 95 games vs an expected win total of 92. Their strength was at home. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 43.2. Their 63% home win percentage was better than expected (60.2%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 91.4 wins and are projected to finish third in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #4 ranked Brewers who are projected for 91 wins.

9ARIZONA D-BACKS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 87 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 84.8 wins. Their 82 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 42-39 on the road and were expected to win 39.8. They won 40 at home and were expected to win 45. We are projecting a +4.9 win improvement next season. They are averaging 86.9 wins per simulation and are projected to finish fifth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #7 ranked Braves who are projected for 83.8 wins.

10TAMPA BAY RAYS 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 90 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 90 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +11.2 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 39-42 on the road and were expected to win 36.9. Their 63% home win percentage was much better than expected (51.8%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 90 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 87.2 wins.

11OAKLAND ATHLETICS 97-66 | 2019 Projection: 87 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 97 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +15.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. They won 50 at home and were expected to win 43.5. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 87.2 wins and are projected to finish sixth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #7 ranked Twins who are projected for 83.9 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Athletics could take a step back next season.

12ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 88-74 | 2019 Projection: 85 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 88 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 45-36 on the road and were expected to win 40.2. They won 43 at home and were expected to win 45.2. We are currently projecting a drop in wins. They are averaging 85.1 wins per simulation for next season and are projected to finish sixth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 82.7 wins.

13ATLANTA BRAVES 90-74 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 90 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +8.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 53.1% home win percentage was as expected (53.7%). They won 58% on the road which was much better than expected (46.7%). We are only projecting 83.8 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish seventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Mets who are projected for 81.7 wins. The Braves may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

14NEW YORK METS 77-85 | 2019 Projection: 82 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Mets are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 77 games vs an expected win total of 79.7. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 45.7% home win percentage was much worse than expected (52.7%). They won 49.4% on the road which was better than expected (45.7%). We are projecting a +4.7 win improvement next season. They are averaging 81.7 wins per simulation and are projected to finish ninth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #7 ranked Braves who are projected for 83.8 wins.

15COLORADO ROCKIES 92-74 | 2019 Projection: 83 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 91 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +9.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 36.6. Their 58% home win percentage was better than expected (55.5%). We are only projecting 82.7 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish eighth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #10 ranked Pirates who are projected for 80.3 wins.

16LOS ANGELES ANGELS 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 82 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 80 games vs an expected win total of 82.4. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 51.9% home win percentage was worse than expected (54.7%). They won 46.9% on the road which was as expected (47.1%). They are poised to slightly improve on last season's win total. In our latest simulations they won 82.4 games per sim and are projected to finish eighth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #9 ranked Mariners who are projected for 80 wins.

17PITTSBURGH PIRATES 82-79 | 2019 Projection: 80 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 78.7 wins. Their 82 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 46.9% on the road which was better than expected (44.7%). They won 44 at home and were expected to win 42.5. We are projecting a drop in wins to 80.3 for next season and are projected to finish tenth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 82.7 wins.

18MINNESOTA TWINS 78-84 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 78 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 29-52 on the road and were expected to win 36.6. They won 49 at home and were expected to win 42.9. We are projecting a +5.9 win improvement next season. They are averaging 83.9 wins per simulation and are projected to finish seventh in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Angels who are projected for 82.4 wins.

19SEATTLE MARINERS 89-73 | 2019 Projection: 80 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 89 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +7.5 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 55.6% home win percentage was better than expected (53.9%). They won 54.3% on the road which was much better than expected (46.7%). We are only projecting 80 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish ninth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #8 ranked Angels who are projected for 82.4 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Mariners could take a step back next season.

20PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 76 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 82.6 wins. Their 80 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 38.3% on the road which was much worse than expected (47.2%). They won 49 at home and were expected to win 44.4. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 76 wins and are projected to finish eleventh in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #10 ranked Pirates who are projected for 80.3 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Phillies could take a step back next season.

21TEXAS RANGERS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 76 Wins
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Rangers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 69.9 wins. Their 67 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 40.7% on the road which was as expected (39.9%). They won 34 at home and were expected to win 37.5. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 76.1 wins per sim, which is a solid +9.1 improvement and are projected to finish tenth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #9 ranked Mariners who are projected for 80 wins.

22SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 70 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 73 games vs an expected win total of 75. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 38.3% on the road which was worse than expected (42%). They won 42 at home and were expected to win 41. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 69.8 wins and are projected to finish third to last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #12 ranked Padres who are projected for 71.3 wins.

23SAN DIEGO PADRES 66-96 | 2019 Projection: 71 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 66 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 35-46 on the road and were expected to win 31.6. They won 31 at home and were expected to win 37.7. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 71.3 wins per sim, which is a solid +5.3 improvement and are projected to finish twelfth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Phillies who are projected for 76 wins.

24CINCINNATI REDS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 67 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 67 games vs an expected win total of 72.2. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 45.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (47.9%). They won 37% on the road which was worse than expected (41.2%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 67 wins and are projected to finish second to last in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #13 ranked Giants who are projected for 69.8 wins.

25KANSAS CITY ROYALS 58-104 | 2019 Projection: 71 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Royals play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. Their 58 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -8.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 32.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (37.6%). They won 32 at home and were expected to win 35.7. We are projecting a +12.5 win improvement next season. They are averaging 70.5 wins per simulation and are projected to finish eleventh in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #10 ranked Rangers who are projected for 76.1 wins.

26CHICAGO WHITE SOX 62-100 | 2019 Projection: 67 Wins
Win 39% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 62 games vs an expected win total of 66.9. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 39.5% on the road which was better than expected (38%). They won 30 at home and were expected to win 36.1. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 67.1 wins per sim, which is a solid +5.1 improvement and are projected to finish twelfth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Royals who are projected for 70.5 wins.

27TORONTO BLUE JAYS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 67 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 73 games vs an expected win total of 75.7. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. Their 49.4% home win percentage was as expected (49.9%). They won 40.7% on the road which was worse than expected (43.6%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 66.6 wins and are projected to finish third to last in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #12 ranked White Sox who are projected for 67.1 wins. The Blue Jays may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

28MIAMI MARLINS 63-98 | 2019 Projection: 62 Wins
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 62.7 wins. Their 63 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 25-55 on the road and were expected to win 28.7. Their 46.9% home win percentage was better than expected (41.9%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 62 wins per sim and are projected to finish last in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Reds who are projected for 67.3 wins.

29DETROIT TIGERS 64-98 | 2019 Projection: 59 Wins
Win 35% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 66.8 wins. Their 64 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 46.9% home win percentage was better than expected (44.4%). They won 32.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (38%). We are only projecting 59.4 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish second to last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #13 ranked Blue Jays who are projected for 66.6 wins. The Tigers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

30BALTIMORE ORIOLES 47-115 | 2019 Projection: 55 Wins
Win 35% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Orioles could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 66.6 wins. Their 47 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 19-62 on the road and were expected to win 31. They won 28 at home and were expected to win 35.6. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 55.1 wins per sim, which is a solid +8.1 improvement and are projected to finish last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Tigers who are projected for 59.4 wins.

Watch Live MLB Games
Stream Live MLB Games on any device on Sling TV
Watch Now