MLB Power Rankings: Bet on Brewers (with Grandal) and Dodgers (without Grandal) to Go Over

1BOSTON RED SOX 108-54 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 63% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 108 games vs an expected win total of 95.3. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 63% on the road which was better than expected (55.1%). They won 57 at home and were expected to win 50.6. In simulations for next season they are averaging 101.3 wins and are projected to finish first in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #2 ranked Yankees who are projected for 98.6 wins. The Red Sox may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 95.5 Wins

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2HOUSTON ASTROS 103-59 | 2019 Projection: 95 Wins
Win 61% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 103 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 57-24 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. Their 56.8% home win percentage was much worse than expected (66.5%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 94.9 wins and are projected to finish third in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #4 ranked Indians who are projected for 90.2 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 97.5 Wins

3NEW YORK YANKEES 100-62 | 2019 Projection: 99 Wins
Win 60% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 100 games vs an expected win total of 100. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 46.9. Their 65.4% home win percentage was as expected (65.5%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 99 wins and are projected to finish second in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #3 ranked Astros who are projected for 94.9 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 96.5 Wins

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4LOS ANGELES DODGERS 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 98 Wins
Win 59% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 91 games vs an expected win total of 97.3. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 46.3. Their 54.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (63%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 98.3 wins per sim, which is a solid +7.3 improvement and are projected to finish first in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #2 ranked Nationals who are projected for 95.1 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 95 Wins

5CHICAGO CUBS 95-67 | 2019 Projection: 91 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 95 games vs an expected win total of 92. Their strength was at home. Their 63% home win percentage was better than expected (60.2%). They won 54.3% on the road which was as expected (53.4%). We are only projecting 91.4 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish third in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Brewers who are projected for 88.4 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 89 Wins

6WASHINGTON NATIONALS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 95 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Nationals play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 82 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 41-40 on the road and were expected to win 42.4. Their 50.6% home win percentage was much worse than expected (60%). We are projecting a +13.1 win improvement next season. They are averaging 95.1 wins per simulation and are projected to finish second in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #3 ranked Cubs who are projected for 91.4 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 88.5 Wins

7ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 88-74 | 2019 Projection: 88 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 88 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 45-36 on the road and were expected to win 40.2. Their 53.1% home win percentage was worse than expected (55.8%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 88 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Brewers who are projected for 88.4 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Push on 88.5 Wins

8MILWAUKEE BREWERS 95-67 | 2019 Projection: 88 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 83.4 wins. Their 95 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 54.3% on the road which was better than expected (47.8%). They won 51 at home and were expected to win 44.7. We are only projecting 88.4 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish fifth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #6 ranked Mets who are projected for 84.3 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 83.5 Wins

9TAMPA BAY RAYS 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 89 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 90 games vs an expected win total of 78.8. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 63% home win percentage was much better than expected (51.8%). They won 48.1% on the road which was better than expected (45.5%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 89 wins per sim and are projected to finish fifth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 87.6 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 85.5 Wins

10OAKLAND ATHLETICS 97-65 | 2019 Projection: 88 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 97 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +15.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. Their 61.7% home win percentage was much better than expected (53.7%). We are only projecting 87.6 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish sixth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #7 ranked Angels who are projected for 83.6 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Athletics could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 83 Wins

11ARIZONA D-BACKS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 81 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 82 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.8 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 42-39 on the road and were expected to win 39.8. Their 49.4% home win percentage was worse than expected (55.6%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 81 wins and are projected to finish eighth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #10 ranked Phillies who are projected for 78.8 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 77 Wins

12NEW YORK METS 77-85 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Mets play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 77 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.7 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 45.7% home win percentage was much worse than expected (52.7%). They won 49.4% on the road which was better than expected (45.7%). We are projecting a +7.3 win improvement next season. They are averaging 84.3 wins per simulation and are projected to finish sixth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 81.2 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 83.5 Wins

13LOS ANGELES ANGELS 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 82.4 wins. Their 80 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 38-43 on the road and were expected to win 38.1. Their 51.9% home win percentage was worse than expected (54.7%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 83.6 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.6 improvement and are projected to finish seventh in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Twins who are projected for 83.1 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Push on 83.5 Wins

14ATLANTA BRAVES 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 82 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 90 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +8.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. Their 53.1% home win percentage was as expected (53.7%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 82.5 wins and are projected to finish seventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Rockies who are projected for 79.3 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Braves could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 84 Wins

15COLORADO ROCKIES 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 79 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 91 games vs an expected win total of 81.6. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 54.3% on the road which was much better than expected (45.2%). They won 47 at home and were expected to win 45. We are only projecting 79.3 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish ninth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #7 ranked Braves who are projected for 82.5 wins. The Rockies may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 82 Wins

16PITTSBURGH PIRATES 82-79 | 2019 Projection: 77 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 82 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.3 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 38-43 on the road and were expected to win 36.2. Their 55% home win percentage was better than expected (53.1%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 77.4 wins and are projected to finish eleventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Rockies who are projected for 79.3 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 78.5 Wins

17PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 79 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 82.6 wins. Their 80 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 31-50 on the road and were expected to win 38.2. They won 49 at home and were expected to win 44.4. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 79 wins per sim and are projected to finish tenth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 81.2 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 83 Wins

18CLEVELAND INDIANS 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 90 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 99.8 wins. Their 91 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 60.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (64.3%). They won 51.9% on the road which was much worse than expected (58.9%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 90 wins and are projected to finish fourth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 87.6 wins. The Indians may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 91.5 Wins

19TEXAS RANGERS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 76 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Rangers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 67 games vs an expected win total of 69.9. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 33-48 on the road and were expected to win 32.3. They won 34 at home and were expected to win 37.5. We are projecting a +9.2 win improvement next season. They are averaging 76.2 wins per simulation and are projected to finish ninth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #8 ranked Twins who are projected for 83.1 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 70.5 Wins

20MINNESOTA TWINS 78-84 | 2019 Projection: 83 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 78 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 29-52 on the road and were expected to win 36.6. Their 60.5% home win percentage was better than expected (52.9%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 83.1 wins per sim, which is a solid +5.1 improvement and are projected to finish eighth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #9 ranked Rangers who are projected for 76.2 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 84 Wins

21SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 73 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 73 games vs an expected win total of 75. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 31-50 on the road and were expected to win 34.1. Their 51.9% home win percentage was better than expected (50.6%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 73 wins per sim and are projected to finish twelfth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Pirates who are projected for 77.4 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Push on 73 Wins

22SEATTLE MARINERS 89-73 | 2019 Projection: 74 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 89 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +7.5 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 54.3% on the road which was much better than expected (46.7%). They won 45 at home and were expected to win 43.7. We are only projecting 73.6 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish eleventh in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Rangers who are projected for 76.2 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Mariners could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 74.5 Wins

23CINCINNATI REDS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 69 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 67 games vs an expected win total of 72.2. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 30-51 on the road and were expected to win 33.4. They won 37 at home and were expected to win 38.8. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 69 wins per sim and are projected to finish third to last in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #12 ranked Giants who are projected for 73 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 77 Wins

24SAN DIEGO PADRES 66-96 | 2019 Projection: 68 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 66 games vs an expected win total of 69.3. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 35-46 on the road and were expected to win 31.6. Their 38.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (46.5%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 68 wins and are projected to finish second to last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #13 ranked Reds who are projected for 68.8 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 77.5 Wins

25KANSAS CITY ROYALS 58-104 | 2019 Projection: 75 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Royals play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. But at 58 wins, it is not hard to improve. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 66.2 wins. Their 58 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 26-55 on the road and were expected to win 30.4. They won 32 at home and were expected to win 35.7. We are projecting a +17.3 win improvement next season. They are averaging 75.3 wins per simulation and are projected to finish tenth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Rangers who are projected for 76.2 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 69 Wins

26MIAMI MARLINS 63-98 | 2019 Projection: 66 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 63 games vs an expected win total of 62.7. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 25-55 on the road and were expected to win 28.7. They won 38 at home and were expected to win 34. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 66 wins per sim, which is a solid +3 improvement and are projected to finish last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #13 ranked Reds who are projected for 68.8 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 65.5 Wins

27CHICAGO WHITE SOX 62-100 | 2019 Projection: 69 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the White Sox play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Improvement on 62 wins is somewhat expected. Their 62 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 37% home win percentage was much worse than expected (44.6%). They won 39.5% on the road which was better than expected (38%). We are projecting a +6.5 win improvement next season. They are averaging 68.5 wins per simulation and are projected to finish twelfth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Mariners who are projected for 73.6 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 74.5 Wins

28TORONTO BLUE JAYS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 66 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 73 games vs an expected win total of 75.7. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 33-48 on the road and were expected to win 35.3. Their 49.4% home win percentage was as expected (49.9%). We are only projecting 66 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish third to last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #12 ranked White Sox who are projected for 68.5 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Blue Jays could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 76.5 Wins

29DETROIT TIGERS 64-98 | 2019 Projection: 64 Wins
Win 37% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 66.8 wins. Their 64 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 32.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (38%). They won 38 at home and were expected to win 36. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 64 wins per sim and are projected to finish second to last in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #13 ranked Blue Jays who are projected for 66 wins. The Tigers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 67 Wins

30BALTIMORE ORIOLES 47-115 | 2019 Projection: 57 Wins
Win 36% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Orioles play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. But at 47 wins, it is not hard to improve. Their 47 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -19.6 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 19-62 on the road and were expected to win 31. Their 34.6% home win percentage was much worse than expected (43.9%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 57.1 wins per sim, which is a solid +10.1 improvement and are projected to finish last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Tigers who are projected for 64 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 59 Wins