MLB Power Rankings: Los Angeles Dodgers Return to the World Series

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1NEW YORK YANKEES 100-62 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 100 games vs an expected win total of 100. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 46.9. They won 53 at home and were expected to win 53. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 101 wins per sim and are projected to finish first in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #3 ranked Astros who are projected for 98.6 wins. They are a contender with a 13.7% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 24.2% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 6/1, 14.3% and odds to win the AL at 11/4, 26.7%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 96.5 Wins

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2HOUSTON ASTROS 103-59 | 2019 Projection: 99 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 103 games vs an expected win total of 101.6. Their strength was in road games. They went 57-24 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. Their 56.8% home win percentage was much worse than expected (66.5%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 98.6 wins and are projected to finish third in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #4 ranked Indians who are projected for 91.4 wins. They are a contender with a 16.4% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 29.3% chance of reaching the Series. Even with the juice, they are a good futures betting value with championship odds of 6/1, 14.3% and odds to win the AL at 11/4, 26.7%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 97.5 Wins

3LOS ANGELES DODGERS 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Dodgers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 91 games vs an expected win total of 97.3. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 58% on the road which was as expected (57.1%). They won 44 at home and were expected to win 51. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 100.7 wins per sim, which is a solid +9.7 improvement and are projected to finish first in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #2 ranked Nationals who are projected for 94.6 wins. They are a contender with a 19.9% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 35.6% chance of reaching the Series. Even with the juice, they are a good futures betting value with championship odds of 7/1, 12.5% and odds to win the NL at 7/2, 22.2%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 95 Wins

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4BOSTON RED SOX 108-54 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 61% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 108 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +12.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 63% on the road which was better than expected (55.1%). They won 57 at home and were expected to win 50.6. In simulations for next season they are averaging 100.8 wins and are projected to finish second in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #3 ranked Astros who are projected for 98.6 wins. They are a contender with a 11.4% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 21.5% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 6/1, 14.3% and odds to win the AL at 11/4, 26.7%. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Red Sox could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 95.5 Wins

5CHICAGO CUBS 95-67 | 2019 Projection: 91 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 95 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 43.2. Their 63% home win percentage was better than expected (60.2%). We are only projecting 91.4 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish third in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 88.1 wins. They are a contender with a 5.8% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 13.4% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 10/1, 9.1% and odds to win the NL at 5/1, 16.7%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 89 Wins

6WASHINGTON NATIONALS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 95 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Nationals are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 91 wins. Their 82 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 50.6% home win percentage was much worse than expected (60%). They won 50.6% on the road which was worse than expected (52.3%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 94.6 wins per sim, which is a solid +12.6 improvement and are projected to finish second in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #3 ranked Cubs who are projected for 91.4 wins. They are a contender with a 11.3% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 22.1% chance of reaching the Series. Even with the juice, they are a good futures betting value with championship odds of 14/1, 6.7% and odds to win the NL at 7/1, 12.5%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 88.5 Wins

7MILWAUKEE BREWERS 95-67 | 2019 Projection: 90 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 95 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +11.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 54.3% on the road which was better than expected (47.8%). They won 51 at home and were expected to win 44.7. We are only projecting 89.6 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish fourth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 88.1 wins. They are a contender with a 5% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 10.3% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 18/1, 5.3% and odds to win the NL at 9/1, 10%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 83.5 Wins

8ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 88-74 | 2019 Projection: 88 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 88 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 53.1% home win percentage was worse than expected (55.8%). They won 55.6% on the road which was better than expected (49.6%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 88 wins per sim and are projected to finish fifth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #6 ranked Braves who are projected for 84 wins. They are a contender with a 3.6% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 7.6% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 12/1, 7.7% and odds to win the NL at 6/1, 14.3%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 88.5 Wins

9TAMPA BAY RAYS 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 90 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 78.8 wins. Their 90 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 39-42 on the road and were expected to win 36.9. They won 51 at home and were expected to win 41.9. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 90 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 86.8 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 1.7% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 4.9% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 25/1, 3.8% and odds to win the AL at 12/1, 7.7%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 85.5 Wins

10OAKLAND ATHLETICS 97-65 | 2019 Projection: 87 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went much better than expected. They won 97 games vs an expected win total of 81.3. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. They won 50 at home and were expected to win 43.5. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 86.8 wins and are projected to finish sixth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #5 ranked Rays who are projected for 89.6 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 1.5% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 3.9% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 25/1, 3.8% and odds to win the AL at 12/1, 7.7%. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Athletics could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 83 Wins

11NEW YORK METS 77-85 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Mets are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Their 77 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.7 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 40-41 on the road and were expected to win 37.1. They won 37 at home and were expected to win 42.7. We are projecting a +6.5 win improvement next season. They are averaging 83.5 wins per simulation and are projected to finish seventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Braves who are projected for 84 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 1.4% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 3.7% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 25/1, 3.8% and odds to win the NL at 12/1, 7.7%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Push on 83.5 Wins

12LOS ANGELES ANGELS 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 83 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 80 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 51.9% home win percentage was worse than expected (54.7%). They won 46.9% on the road which was as expected (47.1%). We are projecting a +3.2 win improvement next season. They are averaging 83.2 wins per simulation and are projected to finish seventh in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 86.8 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.6% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 1.9% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 60/1, 1.6% and odds to win the AL at 30/1, 3.2%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 83.5 Wins

13ATLANTA BRAVES 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 90 games vs an expected win total of 81.3. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. They won 43 at home and were expected to win 43.5. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 84 wins and are projected to finish sixth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #5 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 88.1 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 1.2% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 3% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 12/1, 7.7% and odds to win the NL at 6/1, 14.3%. The Braves may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Push on 84 Wins

14PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 80 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 80 games vs an expected win total of 82.6. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 31-50 on the road and were expected to win 38.2. Their 60.5% home win percentage was better than expected (54.8%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 80 wins and are projected to finish ninth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 80.6 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.6% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 1.8% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 14/1, 6.7% and odds to win the NL at 7/1, 12.5%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 83 Wins

15CLEVELAND INDIANS 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 91 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 91 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -8.8 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 42-39 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. They won 49 at home and were expected to win 52.1. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 91 wins and are projected to finish fourth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Rays who are projected for 89.6 wins. They are a contender with a 4.1% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 11.6% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 10/1, 9.1% and odds to win the AL at 5/1, 16.7%. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Indians could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Push on 91.5 Wins

16COLORADO ROCKIES 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 81 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 91 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +9.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 58% home win percentage was better than expected (55.5%). They won 54.3% on the road which was much better than expected (45.2%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 80.6 wins and are projected to finish eighth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Braves who are projected for 84 wins. While not World Series contenders they do have a measurable chance (0.2%). Their odds of winning it all are 30/1, 3.2%. Their odds of winning the NL are 15/1, 6.2% and they have a 0.9% chance based on simulations. The Rockies may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 82 Wins

17PITTSBURGH PIRATES 82-79 | 2019 Projection: 78 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 78.7 wins. Their 82 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 46.9% on the road which was better than expected (44.7%). They won 44 at home and were expected to win 42.5. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 77.8 wins and are projected to finish eleventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Phillies who are projected for 80 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.3% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 0.7% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 80/1, 1.2% and odds to win the NL at 40/1, 2.4%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 78.5 Wins

18ARIZONA D-BACKS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 78 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 82 games vs an expected win total of 84.8. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 42-39 on the road and were expected to win 39.8. Their 49.4% home win percentage was worse than expected (55.6%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 77.8 wins and are projected to finish tenth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 80.6 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.3% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 0.8% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 300/1, 0.3% and odds to win the NL at 150/1, 0.7%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 77 Wins

19MINNESOTA TWINS 78-84 | 2019 Projection: 82 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 78 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 29-52 on the road and were expected to win 36.6. They won 49 at home and were expected to win 42.9. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 82.1 wins per sim, which is a solid +4.1 improvement and are projected to finish eighth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #7 ranked Angels who are projected for 83.2 wins. They are a longshot contender with a 0.5% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 1.7% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 60/1, 1.6% and odds to win the AL at 30/1, 3.2%.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 84 Wins

20TEXAS RANGERS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 75 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Rangers could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Improvement on 67 wins is somewhat expected. Their 67 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 40.7% on the road which was as expected (39.9%). They won 34 at home and were expected to win 37.5. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 74.5 wins per sim, which is a solid +7.5 improvement and are projected to finish tenth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Royals who are projected for 76.2 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 200/1, 0.5%. Their odds of winning the AL are 100/1, 1%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 70.5 Wins

21CINCINNATI REDS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 70 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Reds play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. But at 67 wins, it is not hard to improve. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 67 games vs an expected win total of 72.2. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 30-51 on the road and were expected to win 33.4. Their 45.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (47.9%). They are poised to slightly improve on last season's win total. In our latest simulations they won 69.8 games per sim and are projected to finish third to last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #12 ranked Giants who are projected for 71.3 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 100/1, 1%. Their odds of winning the NL are 50/1, 2%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 77 Wins

22SEATTLE MARINERS 89-73 | 2019 Projection: 74 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 81.5 wins. Their 89 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 54.3% on the road which was much better than expected (46.7%). They won 45 at home and were expected to win 43.7. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 73.9 wins and are projected to finish eleventh in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Royals who are projected for 76.2 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 500/1, 0.2%. Their odds of winning the AL are 250/1, 0.4%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Mariners could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 74.5 Wins

23SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 71 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 75 wins. Their 73 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 31-50 on the road and were expected to win 34.1. Their 51.9% home win percentage was better than expected (50.6%). We are currently projecting a drop in wins. They are averaging 71.3 wins per simulation for next season and are projected to finish twelfth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Pirates who are projected for 77.8 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 80/1, 1.2%. Their odds of winning the NL are 40/1, 2.4%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 73 Wins

24KANSAS CITY ROYALS 58-104 | 2019 Projection: 76 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Royals could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Improvement on 58 wins is somewhat expected. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 58 games vs an expected win total of 66.2. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 39.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (44.1%). They won 32.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (37.6%). We are projecting a +18.2 win improvement next season. They are averaging 76.2 wins per simulation and are projected to finish ninth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #8 ranked Twins who are projected for 82.1 wins. While not World Series contenders they do have a measurable chance (0.2%). Their odds of winning it all are 500/1, 0.2%. Their odds of winning the AL are 250/1, 0.4% and they have a 0.6% chance based on simulations.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 69 Wins

25SAN DIEGO PADRES 66-96 | 2019 Projection: 67 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 66 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 38.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (46.5%). They won 43.2% on the road which was better than expected (39%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 67 wins and are projected to finish second to last in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #13 ranked Reds who are projected for 69.8 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 100/1, 1%. Their odds of winning the NL are 50/1, 2%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 77.5 Wins

26TORONTO BLUE JAYS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 67 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 73 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.7 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 33-48 on the road and were expected to win 35.3. They won 40 at home and were expected to win 40.4. We are only projecting 67.2 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish third to last in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #12 ranked White Sox who are projected for 67.2 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 200/1, 0.5%. Their odds of winning the AL are 100/1, 1%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Blue Jays could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 76.5 Wins

27MIAMI MARLINS 63-98 | 2019 Projection: 63 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 63 games vs an expected win total of 62.7. Their strength was at home. They won 31.2% on the road which was much worse than expected (35.8%). They won 38 at home and were expected to win 34. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 63 wins and are projected to finish last in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Padres who are projected for 67.5 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 1000/1, 0.1%. Their odds of winning the NL are 500/1, 0.2%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 65.5 Wins

28CHICAGO WHITE SOX 62-100 | 2019 Projection: 67 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 66.9 wins. Their 62 actual wins was below expectation. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 37% home win percentage was much worse than expected (44.6%). They won 39.5% on the road which was better than expected (38%). We are projecting a +5.2 win improvement next season. They are averaging 67.2 wins per simulation and are projected to finish twelfth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Mariners who are projected for 73.9 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 40/1, 2.4%. Their odds of winning the AL are 20/1, 4.8%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 74.5 Wins

29DETROIT TIGERS 64-98 | 2019 Projection: 61 Wins
Win 36% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 64 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.8 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 26-55 on the road and were expected to win 30.8. Their 46.9% home win percentage was better than expected (44.4%). We are projecting a drop in wins to 61.5 for next season and are projected to finish second to last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #13 ranked Blue Jays who are projected for 67.2 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 1000/1, 0.1%. Their odds of winning the AL are 500/1, 0.2%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Tigers could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 67 Wins

30BALTIMORE ORIOLES 47-115 | 2019 Projection: 56 Wins
Win 35% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Orioles play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. But at 47 wins, it is not hard to improve. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 66.6 wins. Their 47 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 34.6% home win percentage was much worse than expected (43.9%). They won 23.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.3%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 56 wins per sim, which is a solid +9 improvement and are projected to finish last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Tigers who are projected for 61.5 wins. They are definitely not World Series contenders (less than a 0.1% chance). Their odds of winning it all are 1000/1, 0.1%. Their odds of winning the AL are 500/1, 0.2%. Their chances of making it to the World Series are also basically zero.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 59 Wins