MLB Power Rankings: Orioles are Dead Last and 4 of 5 Worst Teams are All in the American League

1NEW YORK YANKEES 100-62 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 100 games vs an expected win total of 100. Their 65.4% home win percentage was as expected (65.5%). They won 58% on the road which was as expected (58%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 101 wins and are projected to finish first in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #2 ranked Red Sox who are projected for 100.9 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 96.5 Wins

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2HOUSTON ASTROS 103-59 | 2019 Projection: 97 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 101.6 wins. Their 103 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. They went 57-24 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. Their 56.8% home win percentage was much worse than expected (66.5%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 96.6 wins and are projected to finish third in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #4 ranked Indians who are projected for 92 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 97.5 Wins

3BOSTON RED SOX 108-54 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 108 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +12.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 70.4% home win percentage was better than expected (62.5%). They won 63% on the road which was better than expected (55.1%). In simulations for next season they are averaging 100.9 wins and are projected to finish second in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #3 ranked Astros who are projected for 96.6 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Red Sox could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 95.5 Wins

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4LOS ANGELES DODGERS 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 100 Wins
Win 61% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Dodgers could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 91 games vs an expected win total of 97.3. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 46.3. Their 54.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (63%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 99.7 wins per sim, which is a solid +8.7 improvement and are projected to finish first in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #2 ranked Nationals who are projected for 94.4 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 95 Wins

5CHICAGO CUBS 95-67 | 2019 Projection: 92 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 92 wins. Their 95 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 43.2. They won 51 at home and were expected to win 48.7. We are only projecting 91.8 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish third in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Brewers who are projected for 88.7 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 89 Wins

6WASHINGTON NATIONALS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 94 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Nationals could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 82 games vs an expected win total of 91. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 50.6% home win percentage was much worse than expected (60%). They won 50.6% on the road which was worse than expected (52.3%). We are projecting a +12.4 win improvement next season. They are averaging 94.4 wins per simulation and are projected to finish second in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #3 ranked Cubs who are projected for 91.8 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 88.5 Wins

7ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 88-74 | 2019 Projection: 89 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 88 games vs an expected win total of 85.3. They exceeded expectations on the road. They won 55.6% on the road which was better than expected (49.6%). They won 43 at home and were expected to win 45.2. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 89 wins and are projected to finish fourth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Brewers who are projected for 88.7 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 88.5 Wins

8MILWAUKEE BREWERS 95-67 | 2019 Projection: 89 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 95 games vs an expected win total of 83.4. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 38.7. Their 63% home win percentage was better than expected (55.2%). We are only projecting 88.7 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish fifth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #6 ranked Mets who are projected for 84.9 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 83.5 Wins

9OAKLAND ATHLETICS 97-65 | 2019 Projection: 88 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 97 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +15.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 58% on the road which was much better than expected (46.7%). They won 50 at home and were expected to win 43.5. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 88.2 wins and are projected to finish sixth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #7 ranked Angels who are projected for 84.3 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Athletics could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 83 Wins

10TAMPA BAY RAYS 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 89 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 90 games vs an expected win total of 78.8. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 63% home win percentage was much better than expected (51.8%). They won 48.1% on the road which was better than expected (45.5%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 89 wins per sim and are projected to finish fifth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 88.2 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 85.5 Wins

11NEW YORK METS 77-85 | 2019 Projection: 85 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Mets play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 79.7 wins. Their 77 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 45.7% home win percentage was much worse than expected (52.7%). They won 49.4% on the road which was better than expected (45.7%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 84.9 wins per sim, which is a solid +7.9 improvement and are projected to finish sixth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #7 ranked Braves who are projected for 83.8 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 83.5 Wins

12LOS ANGELES ANGELS 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 80 games vs an expected win total of 82.4. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 38-43 on the road and were expected to win 38.1. They won 42 at home and were expected to win 44.3. We are projecting a +4.3 win improvement next season. They are averaging 84.3 wins per simulation and are projected to finish seventh in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Twins who are projected for 83.4 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 83.5 Wins

13ATLANTA BRAVES 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 81.3 wins. Their 90 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. They won 43 at home and were expected to win 43.5. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 83.8 wins and are projected to finish seventh in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 80.5 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Braves could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 84 Wins

14ARIZONA D-BACKS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 80 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 82 games vs an expected win total of 84.8. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 49.4% home win percentage was worse than expected (55.6%). They won 51.9% on the road which was better than expected (49.1%). We are currently projecting a drop in wins. They are averaging 80.1 wins per simulation for next season and are projected to finish ninth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 80.5 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 77 Wins

15CLEVELAND INDIANS 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 92 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 99.8 wins. Their 91 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 60.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (64.3%). They won 51.9% on the road which was much worse than expected (58.9%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 92 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #5 ranked Rays who are projected for 89.4 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Indians could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Over 91.5 Wins

16COLORADO ROCKIES 91-71 | 2019 Projection: 80 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 91 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +9.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 54.3% on the road which was much better than expected (45.2%). They won 47 at home and were expected to win 45. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 80.5 wins and are projected to finish eighth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #10 ranked Phillies who are projected for 78.4 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Rockies could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 82 Wins

17PITTSBURGH PIRATES 82-79 | 2019 Projection: 78 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 82 games vs an expected win total of 78.7. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 38-43 on the road and were expected to win 36.2. Their 55% home win percentage was better than expected (53.1%). We are only projecting 77.7 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish eleventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 80.1 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 78.5 Wins

18PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 78 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 82.6 wins. Their 80 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 38.3% on the road which was much worse than expected (47.2%). They won 49 at home and were expected to win 44.4. We are currently projecting a drop in wins. They are averaging 78.4 wins per simulation for next season and are projected to finish tenth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 80.5 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 83 Wins

19MINNESOTA TWINS 78-84 | 2019 Projection: 83 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 79.4 wins. Their 78 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 29-52 on the road and were expected to win 36.6. They won 49 at home and were expected to win 42.9. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 83.4 wins per sim, which is a solid +5.4 improvement and are projected to finish eighth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #9 ranked Royals who are projected for 76.1 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 84 Wins

20TEXAS RANGERS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 74 Wins
Win 46% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Rangers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Improvement on 67 wins is somewhat expected. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 67 games vs an expected win total of 69.9. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 33-48 on the road and were expected to win 32.3. Their 42% home win percentage was worse than expected (46.3%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 74.1 wins per sim, which is a solid +7.1 improvement and are projected to finish tenth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Royals who are projected for 76.1 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 70.5 Wins

21CINCINNATI REDS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 69 Wins
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 67 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -5.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 30-51 on the road and were expected to win 33.4. Their 45.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (47.9%). Based on the latest simulations, expect a slight improvement on last season's record. They are averaging 69.1 wins per simulation and are projected to finish third to last in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #12 ranked Giants who are projected for 71.2 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 77 Wins

22SEATTLE MARINERS 89-73 | 2019 Projection: 73 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 89 games vs an expected win total of 81.5. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. Their 55.6% home win percentage was better than expected (53.9%). We are only projecting 72.5 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish eleventh in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #10 ranked Rangers who are projected for 74.1 wins. The Mariners may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 74.5 Wins

23SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 71 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 73 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 31-50 on the road and were expected to win 34.1. They won 42 at home and were expected to win 41. We are currently projecting a drop in wins. They are averaging 71.2 wins per simulation for next season and are projected to finish twelfth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Pirates who are projected for 77.7 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 73 Wins

24KANSAS CITY ROYALS 58-104 | 2019 Projection: 76 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Royals play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Improvement on 58 wins is somewhat expected. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 58 games vs an expected win total of 66.2. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 32.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (37.6%). They won 32 at home and were expected to win 35.7. We are projecting a +18.1 win improvement next season. They are averaging 76.1 wins per simulation and are projected to finish ninth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #8 ranked Twins who are projected for 83.4 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Over 69 Wins

25SAN DIEGO PADRES 66-96 | 2019 Projection: 67 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 66 games vs an expected win total of 69.3. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 35-46 on the road and were expected to win 31.6. They won 31 at home and were expected to win 37.7. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 67 wins per sim and are projected to finish second to last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #13 ranked Reds who are projected for 69.1 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 77.5 Wins

26TORONTO BLUE JAYS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 67 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 75.7 wins. Their 73 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 33-48 on the road and were expected to win 35.3. Their 49.4% home win percentage was as expected (49.9%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 67.4 wins and are projected to finish twelfth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Mariners who are projected for 72.5 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Blue Jays could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 76.5 Wins

27CHICAGO WHITE SOX 62-100 | 2019 Projection: 67 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 62 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 39.5% on the road which was better than expected (38%). They won 30 at home and were expected to win 36.1. We are projecting a +4.8 win improvement next season. They are averaging 66.8 wins per simulation and are projected to finish third to last in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #12 ranked Blue Jays who are projected for 67.4 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 74.5 Wins

28MIAMI MARLINS 63-98 | 2019 Projection: 64 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 63 games vs an expected win total of 62.7. Their strength was at home. They won 31.2% on the road which was much worse than expected (35.8%). They won 38 at home and were expected to win 34. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 64 wins and are projected to finish last in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Padres who are projected for 67.2 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Lean Under 65.5 Wins

29DETROIT TIGERS 64-98 | 2019 Projection: 62 Wins
Win 36% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 66.8 wins. Their 64 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 26-55 on the road and were expected to win 30.8. Their 46.9% home win percentage was better than expected (44.4%). We are currently projecting a drop in wins. They are averaging 62.2 wins per simulation for next season and are projected to finish second to last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #13 ranked White Sox who are projected for 66.8 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Tigers could take a step back next season.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 67 Wins

30BALTIMORE ORIOLES 47-115 | 2019 Projection: 55 Wins
Win 35% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Orioles are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. But at 47 wins, it is not hard to improve. Their 47 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -19.6 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 19-62 on the road and were expected to win 31. Their 34.6% home win percentage was much worse than expected (43.9%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 55.3 wins per sim, which is a solid +8.3 improvement and are projected to finish last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Tigers who are projected for 62.2 wins.

2019 WIN TOTAL PICK: Under 59 Wins

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