MLB Power Rankings: Red Sox, Astros, and Yankees are Top 3 MLB Teams

1HOUSTON ASTROS 104-59 | 2019 Projection: 97 Wins
Win 61% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 103 games vs an expected win total of 101.6. Their strength was in road games. They won 70.4% on the road which was much better than expected (58.9%). They won 46 at home and were expected to win 53.8. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 97.2 wins and are projected to finish third in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #4 ranked Indians who are projected for 92.3 wins.

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2LOS ANGELES DODGERS 94-71 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 59% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 91 games vs an expected win total of 97.3. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 46.3. Their 54.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (63%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 101.3 wins per sim, which is a solid +10.3 improvement and are projected to finish first in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #2 ranked Nationals who are projected for 93.9 wins.

3BOSTON RED SOX 109-54 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 61% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 108 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +12.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 51-30 on the road and were expected to win 44.6. Their 70.4% home win percentage was better than expected (62.5%). In simulations for next season they are averaging 101 wins and are projected to finish first in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #2 ranked Yankees who are projected for 98.3 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Red Sox could take a step back next season.

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4NEW YORK YANKEES 101-63 | 2019 Projection: 98 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 100 wins. Their 100 actual wins was below expectation. Their 65.4% home win percentage was as expected (65.5%). They won 58% on the road which was as expected (58%). In simulations for next season they are averaging 98.3 wins and are projected to finish second in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #3 ranked Astros who are projected for 97.2 wins.

5CLEVELAND INDIANS 91-72 | 2019 Projection: 92 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 91 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -8.8 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 42-39 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. They won 49 at home and were expected to win 52.1. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 92 wins and are projected to finish fourth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Rays who are projected for 91.2 wins.

6WASHINGTON NATIONALS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 94 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Nationals are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 82 games vs an expected win total of 91. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 50.6% home win percentage was much worse than expected (60%). They won 50.6% on the road which was worse than expected (52.3%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 93.9 wins per sim, which is a solid +11.9 improvement and are projected to finish second in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #4 ranked Cubs who are projected for 90.8 wins.

7MILWAUKEE BREWERS 98-67 | 2019 Projection: 91 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 83.4 wins. Their 95 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 54.3% on the road which was better than expected (47.8%). They won 51 at home and were expected to win 44.7. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 90.9 wins and are projected to finish third in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 88.4 wins.

8CHICAGO CUBS 95-69 | 2019 Projection: 91 Wins
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 92 wins. Their 95 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 43.2. Their 63% home win percentage was better than expected (60.2%). We are only projecting 90.8 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish fourth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #5 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 88.4 wins.

9ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 88-74 | 2019 Projection: 88 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 88 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 45-36 on the road and were expected to win 40.2. They won 43 at home and were expected to win 45.2. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 88 wins per sim and are projected to finish fifth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #6 ranked Braves who are projected for 84.7 wins.

10TAMPA BAY RAYS 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 91 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 90 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +11.2 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 48.1% on the road which was better than expected (45.5%). They won 51 at home and were expected to win 41.9. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 91 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 87.9 wins.

11OAKLAND ATHLETICS 97-66 | 2019 Projection: 88 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 81.3 wins. Their 97 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 58% on the road which was much better than expected (46.7%). They won 50 at home and were expected to win 43.5. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 87.9 wins and are projected to finish sixth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #7 ranked Twins who are projected for 85 wins. The Athletics may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

12NEW YORK METS 77-85 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 54% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Mets are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 79.7 wins. Their 77 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 40-41 on the road and were expected to win 37.1. They won 37 at home and were expected to win 42.7. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 84.1 wins per sim, which is a solid +7.1 improvement and are projected to finish seventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 81.1 wins.

13ATLANTA BRAVES 90-74 | 2019 Projection: 85 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 90 games vs an expected win total of 81.3. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 53.1% home win percentage was as expected (53.7%). They won 58% on the road which was much better than expected (46.7%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 84.7 wins and are projected to finish sixth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 83.3 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Braves could take a step back next season.

14ARIZONA D-BACKS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 81 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 82 games vs an expected win total of 84.8. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 42-39 on the road and were expected to win 39.8. They won 40 at home and were expected to win 45. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 81 wins per sim and are projected to finish ninth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #7 ranked Mets who are projected for 84.1 wins.

15MINNESOTA TWINS 78-84 | 2019 Projection: 85 Wins
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 78 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 60.5% home win percentage was better than expected (52.9%). They won 35.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (45.2%). We are projecting a +7 win improvement next season. They are averaging 85 wins per simulation and are projected to finish seventh in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Angels who are projected for 83.2 wins.

16COLORADO ROCKIES 92-74 | 2019 Projection: 83 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 91 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +9.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 36.6. Their 58% home win percentage was better than expected (55.5%). We are only projecting 83.3 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish eighth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #9 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 81.1 wins.

17LOS ANGELES ANGELS 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 83 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 80 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 38-43 on the road and were expected to win 38.1. Their 51.9% home win percentage was worse than expected (54.7%). We are projecting a +3.2 win improvement next season. They are averaging 83.2 wins per simulation and are projected to finish eighth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #9 ranked Rangers who are projected for 76 wins.

18PITTSBURGH PIRATES 82-79 | 2019 Projection: 78 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 82 games vs an expected win total of 78.7. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 38-43 on the road and were expected to win 36.2. Their 55% home win percentage was better than expected (53.1%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 77.7 wins and are projected to finish tenth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #9 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 81.1 wins.

19PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 78 Wins
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 82.6 wins. Their 80 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 38.3% on the road which was much worse than expected (47.2%). They won 49 at home and were expected to win 44.4. We are currently projecting a drop in wins. They are averaging 77.7 wins per simulation for next season and are projected to finish eleventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 81.1 wins.

20TEXAS RANGERS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 76 Wins
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Rangers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Improvement on 67 wins is somewhat expected. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 69.9 wins. Their 67 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 33-48 on the road and were expected to win 32.3. Their 42% home win percentage was worse than expected (46.3%). We are projecting a +9 win improvement next season. They are averaging 76 wins per simulation and are projected to finish ninth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #8 ranked Angels who are projected for 83.2 wins.

21KANSAS CITY ROYALS 58-104 | 2019 Projection: 72 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Royals could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Improvement on 58 wins is somewhat expected. Their 58 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -8.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 26-55 on the road and were expected to win 30.4. Their 39.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (44.1%). We are projecting a +13.6 win improvement next season. They are averaging 71.6 wins per simulation and are projected to finish eleventh in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #10 ranked Mariners who are projected for 75.7 wins.

22SEATTLE MARINERS 89-73 | 2019 Projection: 76 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 89 games vs an expected win total of 81.5. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. They won 45 at home and were expected to win 43.7. We are only projecting 75.7 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish tenth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Rangers who are projected for 76 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Mariners could take a step back next season.

23CINCINNATI REDS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 66 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 67 games vs an expected win total of 72.2. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 45.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (47.9%). They won 37% on the road which was worse than expected (41.2%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 66 wins per sim and are projected to finish second to last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #12 ranked Giants who are projected for 69.2 wins.

24SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 69 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 73 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 31-50 on the road and were expected to win 34.1. They won 42 at home and were expected to win 41. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 69.2 wins and are projected to finish twelfth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Phillies who are projected for 77.7 wins.

25SAN DIEGO PADRES 66-96 | 2019 Projection: 69 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 66 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 38.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (46.5%). They won 43.2% on the road which was better than expected (39%). We are projecting a +3.1 win improvement next season. They are averaging 69.1 wins per simulation and are projected to finish third to last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #12 ranked Giants who are projected for 69.2 wins.

26CHICAGO WHITE SOX 62-100 | 2019 Projection: 68 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 62 games vs an expected win total of 66.9. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 37% home win percentage was much worse than expected (44.6%). They won 39.5% on the road which was better than expected (38%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 68.2 wins per sim, which is a solid +6.2 improvement and are projected to finish twelfth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Royals who are projected for 71.6 wins.

27TORONTO BLUE JAYS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 66 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 73 games vs an expected win total of 75.7. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 33-48 on the road and were expected to win 35.3. They won 40 at home and were expected to win 40.4. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 65.7 wins and are projected to finish third to last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #12 ranked White Sox who are projected for 68.2 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Blue Jays could take a step back next season.

28MIAMI MARLINS 63-98 | 2019 Projection: 61 Wins
Win 39% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 63 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +0.3 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. Their strength was at home. They went 25-55 on the road and were expected to win 28.7. They won 38 at home and were expected to win 34. We are currently projecting a drop in wins. They are averaging 61.1 wins per simulation for next season and are projected to finish last in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Reds who are projected for 66.4 wins.

29DETROIT TIGERS 64-98 | 2019 Projection: 61 Wins
Win 36% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 64 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.8 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 46.9% home win percentage was better than expected (44.4%). They won 32.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (38%). We are only projecting 61 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish second to last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #13 ranked Blue Jays who are projected for 65.7 wins. The Tigers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

30BALTIMORE ORIOLES 47-115 | 2019 Projection: 56 Wins
Win 35% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Orioles could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 47 games vs an expected win total of 66.6. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 34.6% home win percentage was much worse than expected (43.9%). They won 23.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.3%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 56.3 wins per sim, which is a solid +9.3 improvement and are projected to finish last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Tigers who are projected for 61 wins.