MLB World Series and League Futures: Astros at the Top of the AL

There is a huge 21.1% gap between AL leaders. The Houston Astros lead with a 47.8 percent chance of winning the AL and the New York Yankees are at 26.7%. The Yankees may be closing the gap with their chances rising from 21.3%. While 1.14 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. This is a top heavy league with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Houston Astros106.1100.0%100.0%10/11 (52.4%)47.8%
New York Yankees104.7100.0%100.0%3/2 (40%)26.7%
Minnesota Twins99.899.2%99.8%6/1 (14.3%)14.5%
Oakland Athletics98.40.0%99.0%15/1 (6.2%)5.0%
Tampa Bay Rays96.00.0%81.9%20/1 (4.8%)4.9%
Cleveland Indians94.90.8%19.3%25/1 (3.8%)1.1%
Boston Red Sox84.70.0%0.0%10000/1--
Texas Rangers77.00.0%0.0%----
Chicago White Sox72.10.0%0.0%----
Los Angeles Angels71.90.0%0.0%----
Seattle Mariners68.60.0%0.0%----
Toronto Blue Jays66.20.0%0.0%----
Kansas City Royals59.20.0%0.0%----
Baltimore Orioles52.30.0%0.0%----
Detroit Tigers47.70.0%0.0%----

There is a huge 27.9% gap between the Dodgers and the Braves. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 48.5 percent chance of winning the NL and the Atlanta Braves are at 20.6%. The Braves chances are up from 12.9% so they are trending in the right direction. While 3.22 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. This is a very top heavy league with just 4 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers103.6100.0%100.0%4/7 (63.6%)48.5%
Atlanta Braves99.6100.0%100.0%7/2 (22.2%)20.6%
St Louis Cardinals91.695.8%99.7%7/1 (12.5%)16.8%
Washington Nationals90.00.0%97.7%10/1 (9.1%)9.7%
Milwaukee Brewers89.04.0%97.7%20/1 (4.8%)3.8%
Chicago Cubs85.80.2%3.0%15/1 (6.2%)0.4%
New York Mets84.80.0%0.8%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Philadelphia Phillies83.90.0%1.1%150/1 (0.7%)--
Arizona Diamondbacks83.90.0%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
San Francisco Giants77.40.0%0.0%----
Cincinnati Reds76.40.0%0.0%----
San Diego Padres71.60.0%0.0%----
Colorado Rockies69.50.0%0.0%----
Pittsburgh Pirates67.80.0%0.0%----
Miami Marlins55.50.0%0.0%----

There may be 10 playoff teams but there are only 8 true World Series contenders (at least a 2% chance). At the top, the Astros have a 2 percentage point lead over the Dodgers. At the bottom of the contenders list, 3.6 percentage points separate the Twins from the Athletics.

WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Houston Astros11/426.7%30.0%--
Los Angeles Dodgers5/228.6%27.6%--
New York Yankees3/125.0%12.8%UP
Atlanta Braves9/110.0%8.5%UP
St Louis Cardinals16/15.9%6.3%UP
Minnesota Twins12/17.7%5.6%DOWN
Washington Nationals20/14.8%3.3%DOWN
Oakland Athletics30/13.2%2.0%DOWN
Tampa Bay Rays40/12.4%1.9%--
Milwaukee Brewers40/12.4%1.2%DOWN